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Service members, veterans and their families now have a one-stop shop for finding and booking travel with military discounts. The Department of Defense has teamed up with Priceline to create a travel booking site exclusively for U.S. military members.

It only takes a quick eligibility check on the American Forces Travel booking site to begin accessing savings that claim to include up to 60% off hotel stays.

Here are seven questions about the new site, answered.

1. What kinds of travel can be booked through the site?

Eligible members of the military and Department of Defense can book everything from flights and rental cars to vacation homes and hotels. Even cruises are available on the site.

The site, which is powered by Priceline, can be used for booking domestic and international travel, and boasts hotel deals in more than 71,000 destinations around the globe.

American Forces Travel also offers packages that users can use to book flights in combination with hotels or car rental for even deeper discounts. On Priceline’s site, travelers who book a package save $240 per transaction per person, on average. People will see similar savings on American Forces Travel.

In the future, American Forces Travel hopes to also offer discounts on theme parks and other attractions.

» Learn more: Beat your travel budget and find cheap activities in any city

2. Who is eligible?

American Forces Travel is open to all military and military-affiliated personnel who are eligible to use Morale, Welfare and Recreation programs. That's an estimated 9 million people.

The list of people who are eligible to use American Forces Travel includes:

Active-duty members and their families.

Full-benefit retirees and their families.

Veterans who are100% disabled and their families.

Medal of Honor recipients and their families.

American Red Cross and USA paid personnel who are serving outside of the United States and their families.

Department of Defense civilians.

Veterans and non-active members who did not retire with full benefits should be eligible later in 2019. The Department of Defense has said it intends to make them eligible but has not specified a date yet.

3. How do I find out if I’m eligible?

The eligibility check is on the American Forces Travel site. Users will enter their last name, the last four digits of their Social Security number and their date of birth. Then the information is checked against the Department of Defense’s records.

Priceline is not part of the verification process and does not capture or retain that data.

4. What kind of savings can military members expect?

American Forces Travel will offer hotel deals up to 60% off and cruise deals up to 80% off. Military members will have access to discounts on 1.2 million hotels, as well as deals on flights and car rentals.

» Learn more: Credit card offers for active-duty military

5. Are these discounts different than what nonmilitary travelers might find on Priceline?

Some of the discounts are different because Priceline has a team dedicated to negotiating additional deals for American Forces Travel.

6. Outside of travel deals, what else can American Forces Travel provide?

The same services exist for American Forces Travel that exist for Priceline customers, including 24-hour customer service and insurance options for all forms of travel.

7. Why was American Forces Travel created?

Previously, military families would have booked travel with a travel agent on a military base. The Department of Defense created American Forces Travel to make the process faster, more modern and accessible.

In addition, travel booked through American Forces Travel will generate a commission that will support Quality of Life programs for each branch of the military.

How to maximize your rewards

You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2024 , including those best for:

Flexibility, point transfers and a large bonus: Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card

No annual fee: Bank of America® Travel Rewards credit card

Flat-rate travel rewards: Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card

Bonus travel rewards and high-end perks: Chase Sapphire Reserve®

Luxury perks: The Platinum Card® from American Express

Business travelers: Ink Business Preferred® Credit Card

Planning a trip? Check out these articles for more inspiration and advice: Nerdwallet’s top travel credit cards Thank you for your service: Military student loan rights Credit card offers for active duty military personnel

on Chase's website

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75,000 Earn 75,000 bonus points after you spend $4,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening. That's over $900 when you redeem through Chase Travel℠.

1.5%-5% Enjoy 5% cash back on travel purchased through Chase Travel, 3% cash back on drugstore purchases and dining at restaurants, including takeout and eligible delivery service, and unlimited 1.5% cash back on all other purchases.

Up to $300 Earn an additional 1.5% cash back on everything you buy (on up to $20,000 spent in the first year) - worth up to $300 cash back!

on Capital One's website

2x-5x Earn unlimited 2X miles on every purchase, every day. Earn 5X miles on hotels and rental cars booked through Capital One Travel, where you'll get Capital One's best prices on thousands of trip options.

75,000 Enjoy a one-time bonus of 75,000 miles once you spend $4,000 on purchases within 3 months from account opening, equal to $750 in travel.

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American Forces Travel

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American Forces Travel is the new Morale, Welfare and Recreation (MWR) program offering eligible patrons access to leisure travel online powered by Priceline and other travel industry leaders. This is the only official U.S. Joint Services' MWR online vacation travel site offering exclusive travel deals and benefits just for the military and government community. American Forces Travel provides access to a wide selection of member-exclusive rates on hotel rooms, flights, cruises, rental cars, vacation packages, event tickets and more.

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Over the past few decades, opportunity in America had become too concentrated on the coasts and in wealthier communities. Some communities had never gotten the investment they deserved; other communities had been left behind. And it’s been too hard to get a good job, especially for Americans without college degrees. In the 1970s, three out of four jobs required at most a high school diploma. Now, two out of three jobs require more than a high school diploma. This holds back the majority of Americans over 25 who don’t have college degrees.

President Biden and I know how much having a good job can mean for Americans across the country. A good job means being able to provide for your family instead of struggling to do so. It means not having to make hard choices between putting food on the table and getting health care. It means being able to buy a home or save for your children’s education. The President and I are committed to making getting a good job a reality for more Americans.

This matters for the overall economy too. The Biden Administration is pursuing an economic agenda focused on fueling growth in strategic industries. Achieving this depends on equipping workers with the right skills to fill the jobs we’re creating across the country.

III. Biden Administration Actions

Returning to work.

Our work started with the American Rescue Plan, which helped rescue the economy from the depths of the pandemic and bring us to where we are today.

Workers can experience negative impacts long after a recession has ended. We saw this following the Great Recession, when the long-term unemployment rate took nearly a decade to recover and many workers experienced lower earnings once reemployed. Our Administration was committed to preventing this scarring from happening again.

So the President took decisive action. The American Rescue Plan helped keep Americans housed, businesses open, and state and local governments resourced. And we made sure American workers were at the center of the recovery. The American Rescue Plan’s State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds program made historic funding available to city, state, territorial, local, and Tribal governments. As of last December, governments had committed over $13 billion of that to worker support. Funding has gone to over 4,000 projects, from unemployment aid to workforce development, helping avoid lay-offs of school staff and add thousands of new positions in public health departments. This contributed to what has been the fastest labor market recovery in modern history.

Creating New Opportunities

Now, our focus on workers continues through our medium and long-term agenda. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act are fueling growth in new industries and spurring a renaissance in American manufacturing from coast to coast. Companies have announced over $850 billion in new manufacturing and clean energy investments since the start of the Administration, including $121 billion in Arizona. Semiconductors have been a particular focus here, with Intel and TSMC both expanding production.

Growth in these new industries means a need for new skills, from wind turbine technicians to solar photovoltaic installers to roles in the semiconductor and electronic component manufacturing industries. These skills aren’t secondary to success—They’re critical to it. Let me be clear: Here in Arizona and across the country, we need workers for the industries that will drive our country’s growth and resilience. We know that Americans are ready to get to work and take advantage of these good jobs. They deserve the skills and training to do so.

Workforce development programs are helping bridge this gap, and what’s happening in Maricopa County is a prime example. The American Rescue Plan has enabled the County to dedicate $100 million to workforce support, including $12 million for the apprenticeship program based here and at another American Job Center nearby. The program is strategically drawing on multiple sources of funding, combining state and local recovery funds with annual Department of Labor funding. And it aims to equip 3,000 residents for jobs in construction, healthcare, information technology, and advanced manufacturing.

This morning, I visited Mesa Community College, one of several community colleges partnering with the City of Phoenix to use funds to help prepare individuals for high demand industries in the Phoenix area, including through a specific program called Semiconductor Technician Quick Start.

And employers are helping too. TSMC, for example, is establishing a new semiconductor technician Registered Apprenticeship program, with plans to scale over time as business needs evolve.

We’re seeing similar developments across the country. Due West of here, in Riverside County, California, $2.5 million is going to build a workforce education center for training, including in advanced manufacturing. To the East in Ohio, the state is allocating over $2 million for a workforce training center. And I started the year by traveling to the Midwest—to Milwaukee—where the American Rescue Plan and additional federal funds are enabling WRTP | BIG STEP to expand and modernize its training facility.

Key Priorities

Across the country, our workforce development efforts also reflect a bedrock value that animates President Biden’s long-term economic agenda: reaching those who hadn’t previously had opportunity. Many ARP-funded workforce development programs pursue targeted outreach efforts to build diverse pipelines. Many provide support for wraparound services that can be crucial for individuals from underserved communities being able to complete training.

And we’re also focused on creating opportunities that actually make a difference in people’s lives, which means making sure the jobs we’re creating are good ones that provide a pathway to the middle class. The Inflation Reduction Act’s prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements are key here. Unions matter too. Partnerships with unions can strengthen the link between training and employment, as I’ve seen firsthand in trips to the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers facility in Las Vegas and at WRTP | Big Step. And union jobs are more likely to be good ones, with wages 10 to 15 percent higher on average and improved fringe benefits like predictable scheduling. We see these good jobs being created here in Arizona, which ranks among the top five states in terms of wages for semiconductor processing technicians.

IV. Conclusion

The President and I recognize that there is more work to do. Even though inflation has fallen significantly, bringing down costs for families is our top priority, from making owning or renting a home more affordable to making it easier to get a good education. As we look ahead, we’re also working to create stronger and more accessible workforce development programs, to move forward the President’s Investing in America agenda and prepare for emerging challenges shaping the future of work like new technologies.

These efforts are already well underway. As we see here today, we’re building an ecosystem in which expanded, strategic workforce development is equipping Americans from all walks of life for good jobs in twenty-first century industries. We’re expanding opportunity, for those with and without college degrees, here in Arizona and across the country. And American workers are in turn helping drive our country’s growth and resilience.

Thank you again for joining me here today.

###

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A Plan to Remake the Middle East

While talks for a cease-fire between israel and hamas continue, another set of negotiations is happening behind the scenes..

This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.

From New York Times, I’m Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily.

[MUSIC CONTINUES]

Today, if and when Israel and Hamas reach a deal for a ceasefire fire, the United States will immediately turn to a different set of negotiations over a grand diplomatic bargain that it believes could rebuild Gaza and remake the Middle East. My colleague Michael Crowley has been reporting on that plan and explains why those involved in it believe they have so little time left to get it done.

It’s Wednesday, May 8.

Michael, I want to start with what feels like a pretty dizzying set of developments in this conflict over the past few days. Just walk us through them?

Well, over the weekend, there was an intense round of negotiations in an effort, backed by the United States, to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza war.

The latest ceasefire proposal would reportedly see as many as 33 Israeli hostages released in exchange for potentially hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

US officials were very eager to get this deal.

Pressure for a ceasefire has been building ahead of a threatened Israeli assault on Rafah.

Because Israel has been threatening a military offensive in the Southern Palestinian city of Rafah, where a huge number of people are crowded.

Fleeing the violence to the North. And now they’re packed into Rafah. Exposed and vulnerable, they need to be protected.

And the US says it would be a humanitarian catastrophe on top of the emergency that’s already underway.

Breaking news this hour — very important breaking news. An official Hamas source has told The BBC that it does accept a proposal for a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

And for a few hours on Monday, it looked like there might have been a major breakthrough when Hamas put out a statement saying that it had accepted a negotiating proposal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the ceasefire proposal does not meet his country’s requirements. But Netanyahu says he will send a delegation of mediators to continue those talks. Now, the terms —

But those hopes were dashed pretty quickly when the Israelis took a look at what Hamas was saying and said that it was not a proposal that they had agreed to. It had been modified.

And overnight —

Israeli troops stormed into Rafah. Video showing tanks crashing over a sign at the entrance of the city.

— the Israelis launched a partial invasion of Rafah.

It says Hamas used the area to launch a deadly attack on Israeli troops over the weekend.

And they have now secured a border crossing at the Southern end of Gaza and are conducting targeted strikes. This is not yet the full scale invasion that President Biden has adamantly warned Israel against undertaking, but it is an escalation by Israel.

So while all that drama might suggest that these talks are in big trouble, these talks are very much still alive and ongoing and there is still a possibility of a ceasefire deal.

And the reason that’s so important is not just to stop the fighting in Gaza and relieve the suffering there, but a ceasefire also opens the door to a grand diplomatic bargain, one that involves Israel and its Arab neighbors and the Palestinians, and would have very far-reaching implications.

And what is that grand bargain. Describe what you’re talking about?

Well, it’s incredibly ambitious. It would reshape Israel’s relationship with its Arab neighbors, principally Saudi Arabia. But it’s important to understand that this is a vision that has actually been around since well before October 7. This was a diplomatic project that President Biden had been investing in and negotiating actually in a very real and tangible way long before the Hamas attacks and the Gaza war.

And President Biden was looking to build on something that President Trump had done, which was a series of agreements that the Trump administration struck in which Israel and some of its Arab neighbors agreed to have normal diplomatic relations for the first time.

Right, they’re called the Abraham Accords.

That’s right. And, you know, Biden doesn’t like a lot of things, most things that Trump did. But he actually likes this, because the idea is that they contribute to stability and economic integration in the Middle East, the US likes Israel having friends and likes having a tight-knit alliance against Iran.

President Biden agrees with the Saudis and with the Israelis, that Iran is really the top threat to everybody here. So, how can you build on this? How can you expand it? Well, the next and biggest step would be normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

And the Saudis have made clear that they want to do this and that they’re ready to do this. They weren’t ready to do it in the Trump years. But Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, has made clear he wants to do it now.

So this kind of triangular deal began to take shape before October 7, in which the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia would enter this three way agreement in which everyone would get something that they wanted.

And just walk through what each side gets in this pre-October 7th version of these negotiations?

So for Israel, you get normalized ties with its most important Arab neighbor and really the country that sets the tone for the whole Muslim world, which is Saudi Arabia of course. It makes Israel feel safer and more secure. Again, it helps to build this alliance against Iran, which Israel considers its greatest threat, and it comes with benefits like economic ties and travel and tourism. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been very open, at least before October 7th, that this was his highest diplomatic and foreign policy priority.

For the Saudis, the rationale is similar when it comes to Israel. They think that it will bring stability. They like having a more explicitly close ally against Iran. There are economic and cultural benefits. Saudi Arabia is opening itself up in general, encouraging more tourism.

But I think that what’s most important to the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is what he can get from the United States. And what he has been asking for are a couple of essential things. One is a security agreement whose details have always been a little bit vague, but I think essentially come down to reliable arms supplies from the United States that are not going to be cut off or paused on a whim, as he felt happened when President Biden stopped arms deliveries in 2021 because of how Saudi was conducting its war in Yemen. The Saudis were furious about that.

Saudi Arabia also wants to start a domestic nuclear power program. They are planning for a very long-term future, possibly a post-oil future. And they need help getting a nuclear program off the ground.

And they want that from the US?

And they want that from the US.

Now, those are big asks from the us. But from the perspective of President Biden, there are some really enticing things about this possible agreement. One is that it will hopefully produce more stability in the region. Again, the US likes having a tight-knit alliance against Iran.

The US also wants to have a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia. You know, despite the anger at Mohammed bin Salman over the murder of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, the Biden administration recognizes that given the Saudis control over global oil production and their strategic importance in the Middle East, they need to have a good relationship with them. And the administration has been worried about the influence of China in the region and with the Saudis in particular.

So this is an opportunity for the US to draw the Saudis closer. Whatever our moral qualms might be about bin Salman and the Saudi government, this is an opportunity to bring the Saudis closer, which is something the Biden administration sees as a strategic benefit.

All three of these countries — big, disparate countries that normally don’t see eye-to-eye, this was a win-win-win on a military, economic, and strategic front.

That’s right. But there was one important actor in the region that did not see itself as winning, and that was the Palestinians.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

First, it’s important to understand that the Palestinians have always expected that the Arab countries in the Middle East would insist that Israel recognize a Palestinian state before those countries were willing to essentially make total peace and have normal relations with Israel.

So when the Abraham Accords happened in the Trump administration, the Palestinians felt like they’d been thrown under the bus because the Abraham Accords gave them virtually nothing. But the Palestinians did still hold out hope that Saudi Arabia would be their savior. And for years, Saudi Arabia has said that Israel must give the Palestinians a state if there’s going to be a normal relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Now the Palestinians see the Saudis in discussions with the US and Israel about a normalization agreement, and there appears to be very little on offer for the Palestinians. And they are feeling like they’re going to be left out in the cold here.

Right. And in the minds of the Palestinians, having already been essentially sold out by all their other Arab neighbors, the prospect that Saudi Arabia, of all countries, the most important Muslim Arab country in the region, would sell them out, had to be extremely painful.

It was a nightmare scenario for them. And in the minds of many analysts and US officials, this was a factor, one of many, in Hamas’s decision to stage the October 7th attacks.

Hamas, like other Palestinian leaders, was seeing the prospect that the Middle East was moving on and essentially, in their view, giving up on the Palestinian cause, and that Israel would be able to have friendly, normal relations with Arab countries around the region, and that it could continue with hardline policies toward the Palestinians and a refusal, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said publicly, to accept a Palestinian state.

Right. So Michael, once Hamas carries out the October 7th attacks in an effort to destroy a status quo that it thinks is leaving them less and less relevant, more and more hopeless, including potentially this prospect that Saudi Arabia is going to normalize relations with Israel, what happens to these pre-October 7th negotiations between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel?

Well, I think there was a snap assumption that these talks were dead and buried. That they couldn’t possibly survive a cataclysm like this.

But then something surprising happened. It became clear that all the parties were still determined to pull-off the normalization.

And most surprisingly of all, perhaps, was the continued eagerness of Saudi Arabia, which publicly was professing outrage over the Israeli response to the Hamas attacks, but privately was still very much engaged in these conversations and trying to move them forward.

And in fact, what has happened is that the scope of this effort has grown substantially. October 7th didn’t kill these talks. It actually made them bigger, more complicated, and some people would argue, more important than ever.

We’ll be right back.

Michael, walk us through what exactly happens to these three-way negotiations after October 7th that ends up making them, as you just said, more complicated and more important than ever?

Well, it’s more important than ever because of the incredible need in Gaza. And it’s going to take a deal like this and the approval of Saudi Arabia to unlock the kind of massive reconstruction project required to essentially rebuild Gaza from the rubble. Saudi Arabia and its Arab friends are also going to be instrumental in figuring out how Gaza is governed, and they might even provide troops to help secure it. None of those things are going to happen without a deal like this.

Fascinating.

But this is all much more complicated now because the price for a deal like this has gone up.

And by price, you mean?

What Israel would have to give up. [MUSIC PLAYING]

From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, you have an Arab population that is furious at Israel. It now feels like a really hard time to do a normalization deal with the Israelis. It was never going to be easy, but this is about as bad a time to do it as there has been in a generation at least. And I think that President Biden and the people around him understand that the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians is intolerable and it is going to lead to chaos and violence indefinitely.

So now you have two of the three parties to this agreement, the Saudis and the Americans, basically asking a new price after October 7th, and saying to the Israelis, if we’re going to do this deal, it has to not only do something for the Palestinians, it has to do something really big. You have to commit to the creation of a Palestinian state. Now, I’ll be specific and say that what you hear the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, say is that the agreement has to include an irreversible time-bound path to a Palestinian state.

We don’t know exactly what that looks like, but it’s some kind of a firm commitment, the likes of which the world and certainly the Israelis have not made before.

Something that was very much not present in the pre-October 7th vision of this negotiation. So much so that, as we just talked about, the Palestinians were left feeling completely out in the cold and furious at it.

That’s right. There was no sign that people were thinking that ambitiously about the Palestinians in this deal before October 7th. And the Palestinians certainly felt like they weren’t going to get much out of it. And that has completely changed now.

So, Michael, once this big new dimension after October 7th, which is the insistence by Saudi Arabia and the US that there be a Palestinian state or a path to a Palestinian state, what is the reaction specifically from Israel, which is, of course, the third major party to this entire conversation?

Well, Israel, or at least its political leadership, hates it. You know, this is just an extremely tough sell in Israel. It would have been a tough sell before October 7th. It’s even harder now.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is completely unrepentantly open in saying that there’s not going to be a Palestinian state on his watch. He won’t accept it. He says that it’s a strategic risk to his country. He says that it would, in effect, reward Hamas.

His argument is that terrorism has forced a conversation about statehood onto the table that wasn’t there before October 7th. Sure, it’s always in the background. It’s a perennial issue in global affairs, but it was not something certainly that the US and Israel’s Arab neighbors were actively pushing. Netanyahu also has — you know, he governs with the support of very right-wing members of a political coalition that he has cobbled together. And that coalition is quite likely to fall apart if he does embrace a Palestinian state or a path to a Palestinian state.

Now, he might be able to cobble together some sort of alternative, but it creates a political crisis for him.

And finally, you know, I think in any conversation about Israel, it’s worth bearing in mind something you hear from senior US officials these days, which is that although there is often finger pointing at Netanyahu and a desire to blame Netanyahu as this obstructionist who won’t agree to deals, what they say is Netanyahu is largely reflecting his population and the political establishment of his country, not just the right-wingers in his coalition who are clearly extremist.

But actually the prevailing views of the Israeli public. And the Israeli public and their political leaders across the spectrum right now with few exceptions, are not interested in talking about a Palestinian state when there are still dozens and dozens of Israeli hostages in tunnels beneath Gaza.

So it very much looks like this giant agreement that once seemed doable before October 7th might be more important to everyone involved than ever, given that it’s a plan for rebuilding Gaza and potentially preventing future October 7th’s from happening, but because of this higher price that Israel would have to pay, which is the acceptance of a Palestinian state, it seems from everything you’re saying, that this is more and more out of reach than ever before and hard to imagine happening in the immediate future. So if the people negotiating it are being honest, Michael, are they ready to acknowledge that it doesn’t look like this is going to happen?

Well, not quite yet. As time goes by, they certainly say it’s getting harder and harder, but they’re still trying, and they still think there’s a chance. But both the Saudis and the Biden administration understand that there’s very little time left to do this.

Well, what do you mean there’s very little time left? It would seem like time might benefit this negotiation in that it might give Israel distance from October 7th to think potentially differently about a Palestinian state?

Potentially. But Saudi Arabia wants to get this deal done in the Biden administration because Mohammed bin Salman has concluded this has to be done under a Democratic president.

Because Democrats in Congress are going to be very reluctant to approve a security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

It’s important to understand that if there is a security agreement, that’s something Congress is going to have to approve. And you’re just not going to get enough Democrats in Congress to support a deal with Saudi Arabia, who a lot of Democrats don’t like to begin with, because they see them as human rights abusers.

But if a Democratic president is asking them to do it, they’re much more likely to go along.

Right. So Saudi Arabia fears that if Biden loses and Trump is president, that those same Democrats would balk at this deal in a way that they wouldn’t if it were being negotiated under President Biden?

Exactly. Now, from President Biden’s perspective, politically, think about a president who’s running for re-election, who is presiding right now over chaos in the Middle East, who doesn’t seem to have good answers for the Israeli-Palestinian question, this is an opportunity for President Biden to deliver what could be at least what he would present as a diplomatic masterstroke that does multiple things at once, including creating a new pathway for Israel and the Palestinians to coexist, to break through the logjam, even as he is also improving Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

So Biden and the Crown Prince hope that they can somehow persuade Bibi Netanyahu that in spite of all the reasons that he thinks this is a terrible idea, that this is a bet worth taking on Israel’s and the region’s long-term security and future?

That’s right. Now, no one has explained very clearly exactly how this is going to work, and it’s probably going to require artful diplomacy, possibly even a scenario where the Israelis would agree to something that maybe means one thing to them and means something else to other people. But Biden officials refuse to say that it’s hopeless and they refuse to essentially take Netanyahu’s preliminary no’s for an answer. And they still see some way that they can thread this incredibly narrow needle.

Michael, I’m curious about a constituency that we haven’t been talking about because they’re not at the table in these discussions that we are talking about here. And that would be Hamas. How does Hamas feel about the prospect of such a deal like this ever taking shape. Do they see it as any kind of a victory and vindication for what they did on October 7th?

So it’s hard to know exactly what Hamas’s leadership is thinking. I think they can feel two things. I think they can feel on the one hand, that they have established themselves as the champions of the Palestinian people who struck a blow against Israel and against a diplomatic process that was potentially going to leave the Palestinians out in the cold.

At the same time, Hamas has no interest in the kind of two-state solution that the US is trying to promote. They think Israel should be destroyed. They think the Palestinian state should cover the entire geography of what is now Israel, and they want to lead a state like that. And that’s not something that the US, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else is going to tolerate.

So what Hamas wants is to fight, to be the leader of the Palestinian people, and to destroy Israel. And they’re not interested in any sort of a peace process or statehood process.

It seems very clear from everything you’ve said here that neither Israel nor Hamas is ready to have the conversation about a grand bargain diplomatic program. And I wonder if that inevitably has any bearing on the ceasefire negotiations that are going on right now between the two of them that are supposed to bring this conflict to some sort of an end, even if it’s just temporary?

Because if, as you said, Michael, a ceasefire opens the door to this larger diplomatic solution, and these two players don’t necessarily want that larger diplomatic solution, doesn’t that inevitably impact their enthusiasm for even reaching a ceasefire?

Well, it certainly doesn’t help. You know, this is such a hellish problem. And of course, you first have the question of whether Israel and Hamas can make a deal on these immediate issues, including the hostages, Palestinian prisoners, and what the Israeli military is going to do, how long a ceasefire might last.

But on top of that, you have these much bigger diplomatic questions that are looming over them. And it’s not clear that either side is ready to turn and face those bigger questions.

So while for the Biden administration and for Saudi Arabia, this is a way out of this crisis, these larger diplomatic solutions, it’s not clear that it’s a conversation that the two parties that are actually at war here are prepared to start having.

Well, Michael, thank you very much. We appreciate it.

On Tuesday afternoon, under intense pressure from the US, delegations from Israel and Hamas arrived in Cairo to resume negotiations over a potential ceasefire. But in a statement, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that even with the talks underway, his government would, quote, “continue to wage war against Hamas.”

Here’s what else you need to know today. In a dramatic day of testimony, Stormy Daniels offered explicit details about an alleged sexual encounter with Donald Trump that ultimately led to the hush money payment at the center of his trial. Daniels testified that Trump answered the door in pajamas, that he told her not to worry that he was married, and that he did not use a condom when they had sex.

That prompted lawyers for Trump to seek a mistrial based on what they called prejudicial testimony. But the judge in the case rejected that request. And,

We’ve seen a ferocious surge of anti-Semitism in America and around the world.

In a speech on Tuesday honoring victims of the Holocaust, President Biden condemned what he said was the alarming rise of anti-Semitism in the United States after the October 7th attacks on Israel. And he expressed worry that too many Americans were already forgetting the horrors of that attack.

The Jewish community, I want you to know I see your fear, your hurt, and your pain. Let me reassure you, as your president, you’re not alone. You belong. You always have and you always will.

Today’s episode was produced by Nina Feldman, Clare Toeniskoetter, and Rikki Novetsky. It was edited by Liz O. Baylen, contains original music by Marion Lozano, Elisheba Ittoop, and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly.

That’s it for The Daily. I’m Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

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May 7, 2024 • 27:43 How Changing Ocean Temperatures Could Upend Life on Earth
May 6, 2024 • 29:23 R.F.K. Jr.’s Battle to Get on the Ballot
May 3, 2024 • 25:33 The Protesters and the President
May 2, 2024 • 29:13 Biden Loosens Up on Weed
May 1, 2024 • 35:16 The New Abortion Fight Before the Supreme Court
April 30, 2024 • 27:40 The Secret Push That Could Ban TikTok
April 29, 2024 • 47:53 Trump 2.0: What a Second Trump Presidency Would Bring
April 26, 2024 • 21:50 Harvey Weinstein Conviction Thrown Out
April 25, 2024 • 40:33 The Crackdown on Student Protesters
April 24, 2024 • 32:18 Is $60 Billion Enough to Save Ukraine?

Hosted by Michael Barbaro

Featuring Michael Crowley

Produced by Nina Feldman , Clare Toeniskoetter and Rikki Novetsky

Edited by Liz O. Baylen

Original music by Marion Lozano , Elisheba Ittoop and Dan Powell

Engineered by Alyssa Moxley

Listen and follow The Daily Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube

If and when Israel and Hamas reach a deal for a cease-fire, the United States will immediately turn to a different set of negotiations over a grand diplomatic bargain that it believes could rebuild Gaza and remake the Middle East.

Michael Crowley, who covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times, explains why those involved in this plan believe they have so little time left to get it done.

On today’s episode

Michael Crowley , a reporter covering the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The New York Times.

A young man is looking out at destroyed buildings from above.

Background reading :

Talks on a cease-fire in the Gaza war are once again at an uncertain stage .

Here’s how the push for a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia looked before Oct. 7 .

From early in the war, President Biden has said that a lasting resolution requires a “real” Palestinian state .

Here’s what Israeli officials are discussing about postwar Gaza.

There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.

We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.

The Daily is made by Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Sydney Harper, Mike Benoist, Liz O. Baylen, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Rachelle Bonja, Diana Nguyen, Marion Lozano, Corey Schreppel, Rob Szypko, Elisheba Ittoop, Mooj Zadie, Patricia Willens, Rowan Niemisto, Jody Becker, Rikki Novetsky, John Ketchum, Nina Feldman, Will Reid, Carlos Prieto, Ben Calhoun, Susan Lee, Lexie Diao, Mary Wilson, Alex Stern, Dan Farrell, Sophia Lanman, Shannon Lin, Diane Wong, Devon Taylor, Alyssa Moxley, Summer Thomad, Olivia Natt, Daniel Ramirez and Brendan Klinkenberg.

Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Paula Szuchman, Lisa Tobin, Larissa Anderson, Julia Simon, Sofia Milan, Mahima Chablani, Elizabeth Davis-Moorer, Jeffrey Miranda, Renan Borelli, Maddy Masiello, Isabella Anderson and Nina Lassam.

Michael Crowley covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times. He has reported from nearly three dozen countries and often travels with the secretary of state. More about Michael Crowley

International

Trump's hush money trial

Israel-Hamas war

US job market shows signs of cooling, with just 175,000 jobs added in April

From CNN's Alicia Wallace, Elisabeth Buchwald, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur and Bryan Mena

Leisure and hospitality jobs still not back to pre-pandemic levels

People work at a Starbucks in New York on February 2.

The leisure and hospitality sector was the poster child of the employment devastation wreaked by the pandemic, losing half of its workforce (a whopping 8 million jobs) in two months.

The March jobs report this year seemed to indicate that this sector had finally reached its pre-pandemic employment levels .

Not so fast, my friend.

Following revisions to recent months' employment estimates, the key consumer-facing industry is back to being just shy of pre-pandemic form. As of April, there were an estimated 16.897 million leisure and hospitality workers versus 16.899 million in February 2020, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The leisure and hospitality industry, which was one of the key employment drivers in 2022 and 2023, saw a net gain of only 5,000 jobs last month .

Federal data is frequently subject to change as more detailed and accurate information becomes readily available. The monthly jobs report is no exception: The initial monthly estimates are revised twice more (and subject to later annual benchmarking revisions ).

The overall revisions seen in April were comparatively mild to those seen in the past. February's and March's estimated gains were revised down by a combined 22,000 jobs. February's estimates dropped by 34,000 to 236,000 net jobs added, while March's strong job gains of 303,000 were revised up by 12,000 to 315,000.

Labor force participation of prime working age women is at a record high

The employment rate of women in their prime working years just hit an all-time high in April.

The labor force participation rate for women between the ages of 25 and 54 climbed 0.3 percentage points to 78% last month, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

In recent years, women’s labor force participation rebounded from a pandemic “she-cession” and returned to its pre-pandemic form of making progressively historic labor market gains.

Prior to the pandemic, women’s labor force participation rates rose faster than their male counterparts as female-dominated industries such as health care and caregiving saw rapid growth; educational attainment for women rose substantially; and there were greater inroads by women into traditionally male-dominated fields such as construction, agriculture, and maintenance.

Since the pandemic, other developments helped serve as further drivers: increased work flexibility and strong job gains in female-dominated industries such as health care.

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said better labor force participation was one of the main reasons why the overall unemployment rate ticked higher in April to 3.9%.

"The employment-population ratio for workers ages 25-54 was near the highest since 2022 and for workers 16-24 was near the highest since 2008," Adams wrote in a note on Friday.

Still, the overall labor force participation rate (workers 16 and older) was unchanged at 62.7%, nearing its post-pandemic high. Labor force participation rates have been on the decline since 2000 due to demographic shifts (largely, aging Baby Boomers). The pandemic effects (early retirements, deaths, long-Covid, caregiving needs) have played a role as well.

Black unemployment rate falls after unexpected spike in March

Friday's jobs report helped to quell concerns that Black Americans were seeing a steady rise of unemployment.

The jobless rate for Black workers in April fell back down to 5.6%, a rate last seen in February, after suddenly spiking to 6.4% in March , the highest since August 2022.

When that rate rocketed higher, economists cautioned that it was likely (and hopefully) a statistical anomaly. The household survey that feeds into the jobs report is typically more volatile, so it was possible that sudden leap wasn't fully representative.

The return to 5.6% in April was reassuring, Elise Gould, senior economist for the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN in an interview.

It's certainly a measure to keep watching she said, adding that it's viewed as a "canary in the coal mine."

"When things are going to get soft in the labor market, historically disadvantaged groups are often going to feel that first," she said. "It's still important to keep an eye on, but I think it's promising that it has dropped."

How 175,000 monthly job gains stacks up historically

Since the pandemic started to ease, US employers have added hundreds of thousands of jobs each month. For instance, in 2022, employers added an average of nearly 400,000 jobs each month and in 2023, they added around 225,000.

So, compared to that, April's 175,000 gains may sound paltry. But it's certainly nothing to sneeze at, looking back in time.

Though it's slightly below the 183,000 average monthly gains in the decade before the pandemic, it's well above the 125,000 average gains from 1939 to 2019. It's also above 2019's average monthly gains of 166,000 jobs.

Chicago Fed President: April jobs report was "very solid"

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee views April's 175,000 job gains as "very solid."

It's a sign the economy is shifting back toward pre-Covid "conventional times," he said Friday in a Bloomberg TV interview.

"In a previous world, if you said you know you're getting jobs numbers in the 175,000 to 200,000 range, people would be quite happy with that," he said.

Goolsbee, who isn't voting on monetary policy decisions this year, didn't want to say whether or not this jobs report would make him more supportive of rate cuts this year — or rate hikes, which some of his colleagues have floated recently .

But jobs reports like April's are a positive development in that they give officials more confidence that the economy is not overheating, he added.

Biden touts "great American comeback"

President Joe Biden gives remarks in Washington, DC, on April 12.

President Joe Biden acknowledged that America's job market remains strong, saying in a statement that "the great American comeback continues," even after the latest batch of employment figures came in below expectations.

"When I took office, I inherited an economy on the brink, with the worst economic crisis in a century," he said in a statement Friday.

"Now we are seeing that plan in action, with well over 15 million jobs created since I took office, working-age women employed at a record high rate, wages rising faster than prices, and unemployment below 4 percent for a record 27 months in a row."

Wage growth cooled further in April

Americans' paychecks grew at a slower pace last month, but wage growth remains strong and April's softer earnings figures could be viewed favorably by the Federal Reserve, which is still fighting inflation.

Private-sector workers earned $34.75 an hour in April, on average. That was up 7 cents from March, or 0.2%. From a year earlier, wages grew 3.9% in April, which was the weakest annual rate since May 2021. That's not particularly concerning because workers are still commanding historically strong wage gains — by a very comfortable margin, too.

Annual wage growth never rose above 3.6% from 2007 (the earliest available data) to the spring of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic distorted economic data. Wage gains still have a way to go before even returning to pre-pandemic levels — and they're still outpacing inflation.

But the steady slowdown over the past few years, since reaching a peak in March 2022, is generally seen as a good thing by the Fed. The central bank has been fighting inflation for about two years now and a tight labor market is seen by officials as a potential source of inflationary pressure. They want wage growth to "be consistent" with their inflation target of 2%, so cooling wage gains could help them tug inflation lower. Workers can still command robust wages — if productivity growth is at the very least keeping up. It remains to be seen if 2023's burst of productivity will persist.

Dow opens 500 points higher after weak jobs report

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange on March 20.

US stocks soared higher on Friday morning after new data showed that US job growth slowed considerably last month.

The Dow opened more than 530 points higher, the S&P was up 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8%.

The US added just 175,000 new jobs in April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. That's far below economists expectations for 235,000 jobs and the 315,000 jobs added in March. The unemployment rate ticked higher as well, to 3.9% from 3.8% the month before.

While that's bad news for Main Street, Wall Street celebrated the news.

That's because the Federal Reserve is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut.

Here's why the Fed likely isn't worried about this jobs report

The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC, is pictured on January 26, 2022.

For the first time in a while, the latest US employment figures came in below economists' expectations. Job growth in April was sharply weaker than in the prior month and the unemployment rate edged higher, instead of holding steady as economists projected. The job market clearly slowed down this spring, but it remains robust.

Fed officials have said they want to see the job market come "into better balance" to help bring inflation lower. They got that with the April jobs report. But they're not necessarily popping champagne bottles, either.

For starters, this is just one month's data, so it remains to be seen whether this softening momentum will continue. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said in his latest news conference — after the central bank held interest rates steady for the sixth-straight meeting — that policymakers would be concerned to see an "unexpected weakening in the labor market."

That means officials prefer to see a steady and orderly slowdown.

A string of unexpectedly weak labor data in the coming months could force officials to consider cutting rates sooner than expected, since the Fed is also mandated by Congress to maximize employment, in addition to stabilizing prices.

It's too soon to tell whether April was just noise or the start of a trend, but at least the Fed doesn't have worry about the job market heating back up.

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US soldier detained in Russia will be held until at least July

Russian officials on Tuesday said an American soldier being held in Vladivostok will remain in jail for at least two more months while authorities review the theft charges against him.

Staff Sgt. Gordon Black , who has served in the Army since 2008, was arrested by Russian police on May 2 after traveling from his South Korean base to the Russian city, which sits near the country’s border with North Korea.

In a statement released Tuesday, Russian court officials said that Black will remain in pre-trial confinement until July 2 as law enforcement officials further investigate the case.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said American officials are working to provide him consular assistance. He did not say whether U.S. officials view the arrest as politically motivated.

US soldier arrested in Russia, Army officials confirm

The soldier was reportedly stationed in south korea and traveled to russia on his own..

Black, who deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan during his 16-year military career, was most recently assigned to Eighth Army with U.S. Forces Korea at Camp Humphreys in South Korea. Army officials said he processed out of that role on April 10 and was on Permanent Change of Station leave en route to Fort Cavazos, Texas, at the time of his arrest.

“Instead of returning to the continental United States, Black flew from Incheon, Republic of Korea through China to Vladivostok, Russia, for personal reasons,” Army spokeswoman Cynthia Smith said in a statement. “Black did not request official clearance and the Defense Department did not authorize his travel to China and Russia.”

Smith said officials have not seen any indication that Black intended to remain in Russia and defect from the United States after his leave period ended.

According to U.S. officials interviewed by the Associated Press, Black flew to Russia to see his girlfriend. The Russian woman had lived in South Korea, and she and Black had previously been involved in a domestic dispute which led to his decision to seek her out in Russia.

Smith said Black has been charged with “theft of personal property” but said no additional information has been released on the charges.

Miller reiterated State Department warnings against U.S. citizens visiting Russia, where a number of American citizens are currently being jailed on charges U.S. leaders insist are false and baseless.

That list includes former Marine Paul Whelan, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, and musician Travis Leake.

“U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia for any reason,” he said. “It’s dangerous, you risk being detained, you risk other threats to your health and well-being. For any American citizen anywhere in the world, whether they are here in the United States or in some other country, if you are considering going to Russia, don’t do it.”

Defense Department officials and representatives from the U.S. embassy in Moscow said they have been in touch with Black’s family about his detention.

Leo covers Congress, Veterans Affairs and the White House for Military Times. He has covered Washington, D.C. since 2004, focusing on military personnel and veterans policies. His work has earned numerous honors, including a 2009 Polk award, a 2010 National Headliner Award, the IAVA Leadership in Journalism award and the VFW News Media award.

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The U.S. labor market is shifting toward skilled labor as white-collar hiring slows

America's job market increasingly appears to be splitting into two tracks, economists say, alongside a steady demand for skilled workers and a flagging interest in hiring more "knowledge-based" professionals.

The evidence can be found in the data, which shows a higher unemployment rate for professional and business services workers, and a lower one for people who work in manufacturing.

"It's a buyer's market for brain and a seller's market for brawn," said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the jobs and workplace search site Glassdoor.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the latest monthly payroll data for the U.S. economy. Total employment rose by 175,000 in April. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% in March.

That came in below estimates of 240,000 jobs for April.

The softness in the jobs report was greeted with some positive reactions. Stock futures jumped after the news. Concerns about the U.S. economy have been focused on overheating — whether inflation will continue to rise and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher in an effort to slow the economy and bring rising prices under control.

Jason Furman, who served as President Barack Obama's top economic advisor, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that it was a "goldilocks" report , showing an economy that could be headed to the soft landing of reasonable inflation and low unemployment.

“The bottom line is this report is quite reassuring," said Furman, who now teaches at Harvard.

It's not that America is only — or even mostly — producing low-wage jobs. The health care industry continues to lead the employment boom, with an approximately 4.5% gain in payrolls over the past year, equating to some 750,000 new jobs. Other industries seeing strong growth include government jobs, certain sectors of social work, travel, tourism and the arts — alongside some manufacturing sectors.

But the overall labor market remains at something of a standstill, as seen in a report earlier this week showing the hiring rate continuing to drift sideways. At the same time, the rate of workers quitting or being laid off is also not showing much change. Economists led by Guy Berger at The Burning Glass Institute research group call it the "great stay."

"It’s a good time to have a job, but a not-so-good time to be actively looking for one," he wrote in his Substack newsletter Wednesday.

Many American consumers have also begun reporting signs of a deteriorating job situation. In its latest report on consumer confidence, the Conference Board business group said respondents to its monthly survey reported feeling less positive about the current labor market and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability and income.

That echoed findings of the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey of consumer expectations, which reported more survey respondents feeling pessimistic about losing their job or finding a new job. Respondents rated the average probability of losing their job in the next 12 months at almost 1 in 6 — above pre-pandemic levels and the highest reading since September 2020.

"On the margin, businesses are not as eager to add staff," said Sarah House, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.

But why has payroll data remained strong? One reason is increased supply, thanks to rising participation rates in the workforce, as well as booming immigration .

"There is increased labor 'supply' for businesses that do want to hire or add staff," House said.

Yet, those trends are likely to diminish too, if they haven't already, she said.

One sign that the job market remains strong is that the number of individuals collecting unemployment is still very low.

"We're seeing a gradual and orderly slowing" in workers quitting and firms with job openings, said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US LLP. That is consistent with private sector firms "carefully managing their labor force."

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank does not intend to change its key interest rate anytime soon even as its fight against accelerating price increases has stalled — and despite the apparent softening of the labor market.

He said the central bank had "the luxury of strong growth and a strong labor market" that will allow it to maintain interest rates until inflation comes down further — and ruled out any implication that there might be "stagflation" in the economy .

But he invoked the prospect of a rate cut should the labor market "unexpectedly" weaken.

As inflation continues to moderate, Powell said, "We’re now focusing on the other goal," referring to the Fed's dual mandate of balancing price growth with jobs.

"The employment goal now comes back into focus. So we are focusing on it,” he said.

Some economists saw Friday's jobs report as sign that Powell's plans are coming to fruition.

"These are the #jobs numbers that Jay Powell was hoping for," David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, posted on X .

Rob Wile is a breaking business news reporter for NBC News Digital.

Israel-Gaza latest: Israeli president Isaac Herzog thanks Joe Biden after far-right minister's 'irresponsible' comments

Joe Biden has said he will not supply weapons if Israel launches a full-scale offensive in Rafah, a day after it emerged the US had paused a shipment of bombs to Israel. Listen to our Daily podcast on why a ceasefire hasn't happened while you scroll.

Thursday 9 May 2024 18:30, UK

Israel-Hamas war
Biden: US will not supply weapons if Israel invades Rafah
Alistair Bunkall analysis: Biden's reputation is on the line if Netanyahu defies him
Homes reduced to rubble in Rafah after Israeli shelling
Israeli president thanks Biden after far-right minister's 'irresponsible' comments
Listen to the Daily above and tap here to follow wherever you get your podcasts
Live reporting by Bhvishya Patel

That's all for our live coverage for the moment.

Our regular updates will continue tomorrow.

UK forces have airdropped 110 tonnes of aid for Gaza civilians today.

The RAF completed its 11th airdrop today, which include ready-to-eat meals, water, rice, tinned goods and flour, from 120 parachutes.

The aid was dropped along the northern coastline of Gaza.

The UK began conducting airdrops in late March, as part of the Jordanian international initiative.

Defence secretary Grant Shapps said the UK's commitment to delivering large quantities of aid to those most in need was "unwavering".

"Given the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, we deployed RFA Cardigan Bay to the Eastern Mediterranean to support efforts to build a temporary pier to deliver crucial humanitarian assistance," he said.

By Mark Stone , US correspondent

All decisions have intended consequences and unintended consequences.

The intended consequence of President Biden's threat to stop sending some weapons to Israel is straightforward: to stop the Israeli military from going into Rafah without a clear, deliverable plan for the civilian population.

But there are so many unintended consequences.

Both geopolitically and domestically for President Biden this decision could come to haunt him.

Even before we consider the unintended consequence, there is a key point: the perils of setting red lines.

Too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.

What if Netanyahu bulldozes through the red line and invades Rafah?

He's probably got enough American weapons in storage to do that.

Will Biden stick to his threat to pull weapons delivery? Or will he relent? What message will both of those choices send, far and wide?

That brings us on to the unintended consequences. First, the regional consequences:

Could there be a greater numbers of civilian casualties? If Netanyahu continues with his Rafah operation but with a dwindling supply of American weapons (so-called smart bombs) then he will use less sophisticated "dumb bombs". This could cause even more civilian casualties;
What message does it sends regionally? That America could be seen to abandon Israel (despite that not being what Biden said) will not be lost on countries around the world. It suggests that America is flaky with its alliances. For months, Biden has dismissed calls to limit weapons supplies. Now he's U-turned. Gulf countries already wonder about the stability of America as an ally. While they will agree with his announcement last night, the wider message it sends will resonate;
Does it embolden Iran? Limiting weapons to its oldest Middle Eastern ally at a time of profound danger for Israel is being seen by some as a gift for Tehran;
What impact will it have on ceasefire negotiations? It's logical that Hamas may see this decision as weakening Israel and may therefore hold out in the ongoing negotiations to get more out of them.

Then there are the domestic political consequences.

They were spelt out by his presidential opponent, Donald Trump who said: "What Biden is doing with respect to Israel is disgraceful. If any Jewish person voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. He's totally abandoned Israel and nobody can believe it."

President Biden has already alienated key sections of the voter population with his existing Gaza policy.

By supporting Netanyahu unequivocally, he has angered key Arab-American populations in places like Michigan - a state he needs to win in November. Beyond that, students (many of whom would be natural Biden voters) say they now can't vote for him and "genocide Joe" is their cry.

Now, with his weapons announcement, he risks alienating Jewish-American voters too. Many are deeply angry at what they see as an abandonment of the Jewish State.

His badly articulated insistence that he will still have Israel's back in terms of defence will be lost on many voters. They see only the headline.

Remember too that pretty much all Republicans are against every lever he pulls to rein in Israel; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.

More than that though - a significant number of his own Democrats are also uneasy about America limiting weapons for Israel. Only the progressive left of his party support his move.

It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.

Joe Biden has said that he will not supply offensive weapons that Israel could use to launch an all-out assault on Rafah.

He said that the US was still committed to Israel's defence and would supply iron dome rocket interceptors and other defensive arms but that if Israel goes into Rafah, "we're not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells used".

Here, our Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall takes a deeper look at what the warning means...

The leader of Yemen's Houthis has said the group will target ships of any company related to supplying or transporting goods to Israel regardless of their destination.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi said this was a fourth stage of escalation in retaliation to "the Israeli aggression on Rafah" in southern Gaza.

"From now on, we are also thinking about the fifth stage and the sixth stage, and we have very important, sensitive and influential choices on the enemies," he added.

For context : Months of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted global shipping, forcing firms to re-route to longer and more expensive journeys around southern Africa, and stoked fears that the Israel-Hamas war could spread to destabilise the wider Middle East.

The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.

Joe Biden is "stuck between a rock and a hard place" when it comes to his Israel policy, former White House director of global engagement has said.

Speaking to Sky News, Brett Bruen said the US leader was heading into a "crucial series of political months" as he entered another presidential race and the war "has just been a massive headache".

"The position that Biden is taking in some ways is political posturing, he is trying to dissuade Netanyahu from doing a full on invasion," he said.

"Yet at the same time Netanyahu is not showing any signs of letting up."

Mr Bruen said Mr Netanyahu had "somewhat painted himself into a corner".

He added: "Domestically he is increasingly unpopular as a result of the 7 October attacks and the way he has put the US- Israel relationship in danger.

"Yesterday's comments by Biden will be costly for Netanyahu and his political standing in the country and yet he still has to contend with the fact that there are those on the Israeli right who are saying 'you have got to move forward'.

"There are no good options for Netanyahu either."

The Israeli president has publicly thanked Joe Biden after one of the country's outspoken ministers said "Hamas loves Biden".

Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, made the comment after the US president said he would halt offensive weapons sales to Israel if it invades Rafah (see post at 9.02am).

In response, Isaac Herzog, the president, said it was important that even when there are disagreements and moments of disappointment between friends and allies, "there is a way to clarify the disputes".

"It is beholden upon all of us to avoid baseless, irresponsible and insulting statements and tweets that harm the national security and the interests of the state of Israel," he said.

Mr Herzog also said he wanted to take the opportunity to thank Israel's "greatest ally, the US".

"I would like to say thank you to President Biden, who is a great friend of the state of Israel, and who proved as such from the first day of the war," he said.

We have been reporting today on Joe Biden's warning that the US would stop supplying weapons if Israeli forces conduct a full-scale offensive in Rafah.

It marked his strongest language to date on the issue.

But can Israel achieve its aims without US weapons?

Our military analyst Sean Bell says "it's very likely they can".

"Although the US has said it is pausing the supply of weapons, it's not going to stop supplying defensive weapons," he says.

Bell says Israel will have "significant stockpiles" and will use those if the decision is made to go into Rafah.

"Rafah is a relatively small area as well so it looks unlikely to have any significant military effect."

Bell says Mr Biden's comments are more likely a "political statement".

"The International Court of Justice said Israel needs to do more to protect the civilian population and any nation that provides weapons to a country which then uses them in violation of international law also becomes vulnerable," he says.

"I think this is a really clear statement from President Biden.

"He doesn't want to get tarnished with that brush as all.

"I don't think there will be a military impact but I do think this is a reflection of the frustration Biden is feeling with the actions of Netanyahu."

Joe Biden's weapons threat "practically buries a hostage deal at this point", a source close to the Israeli leader has told Sky News.

The US president warned overnight that the US would halt the supply of some weapons to Israel if it launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah.

IDF international spokesperson Nadav Shoshani has issued a statement in response to reports aid is not getting into Gaza.

In a statement on X, Mr Shoshani said Israel closed the Kerem Shalom border crossing after four IDF soldiers were killed.

The crossing was reopened and Hamas "fired rockets at the crossing several times again".

"Hamas has a pattern of risking civilians for their terrorist agenda," he said.

Yesterday, Israel insisted the border crossing, which allows aid into Gaza, had reopened but the UN said deliveries have still not been allowed through.

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On today’s episode

Background reading :

US job market shows signs of cooling, with just 175,000 jobs added in April

Leisure and hospitality jobs still not back to pre-pandemic levels

Labor force participation of prime working age women is at a record high

Black unemployment rate falls after unexpected spike in March

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Biden touts "great American comeback"

Wage growth cooled further in April

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Israel-Gaza latest: Israeli president Isaac Herzog thanks Joe Biden after far-right minister's 'irresponsible' comments

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