tourism issues 2022

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Fact sheet: 2022 national travel and tourism strategy, office of public affairs.

The 2022 National Travel and Tourism Strategy was released on June 6, 2022, by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo on behalf of the Tourism Policy Council (TPC). The new strategy focuses the full efforts of the federal government to promote the United States as a premier destination grounded in the breadth and diversity of our communities, and to foster a sector that drives economic growth, creates good jobs, and bolsters conservation and sustainability. Drawing on engagement and capabilities from across the federal government, the strategy aims to support broad-based economic growth in travel and tourism across the United States, its territories, and the District of Columbia.

The federal government will work to implement the strategy under the leadership of the TPC and in partnership with the private sector, aiming toward an ambitious five-year goal of increasing American jobs by attracting and welcoming 90 million international visitors, who we estimate will spend $279 billion, annually by 2027.

The new National Travel and Tourism Strategy supports growth and competitiveness for an industry that, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, generated $1.9 trillion in economic output and supported 9.5 million American jobs. Also, in 2019, nearly 80 million international travelers visited the United States and contributed nearly $240 billion to the U.S. economy, making the United States the global leader in revenue from international travel and tourism. As the top services export for the United States that year, travel and tourism generated a $53.4 billion trade surplus and supported 1 million jobs in the United States.

The strategy follows a four-point approach:

• Promoting the United States as a Travel Destination Goal : Leverage existing programs and assets to promote the United States to international visitors and broaden marketing efforts to encourage visitation to underserved communities.
• Facilitating Travel to and Within the United States Goal : Reduce barriers to trade in travel services and make it safer and more efficient for visitors to enter and travel within the United States.
• Ensuring Diverse, Inclusive, and Accessible Tourism Experiences Goal : Extend the benefits of travel and tourism by supporting the development of diverse tourism products, focusing on under-served communities and populations. Address the financial and workplace needs of travel and tourism businesses, supporting destination communities as they grow their tourism economies. Deliver world-class experiences and customer service at federal lands and waters that showcase the nation’s assets while protecting them for future generations.
• Fostering Resilient and Sustainable Travel and Tourism Goal : Reduce travel and tourism’s contributions to climate change and build a travel and tourism sector that is resilient to natural disasters, public health threats, and the impacts of climate change. Build a sustainable sector that integrates protecting natural resources, supporting the tourism economy, and ensuring equitable development.

Travel and Tourism Fast Facts

• The travel and tourism industry supported 9.5 million American jobs through $1.9 trillion of economic activity in 2019. In fact, 1 in every 20 jobs in the United States was either directly or indirectly supported by travel and tourism. These jobs can be found in industries like lodging, food services, arts, entertainment, recreation, transportation, and education.
• Travel and tourism was the top services export for the United States in 2019, generating a $53.4 billion trade surplus.
• The travel and tourism industry was one of the U.S. business sectors hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent health and travel restrictions, with travel exports decreasing nearly 65% from 2019 to 2020. 
• The decline in travel and tourism contributed heavily to unemployment; leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs between February and April 2020 alone, accounting for 37% of the decline in overall nonfarm employment during that time. 
• By 2021, the rollout of vaccines and lifting of international and domestic restrictions allowed travel and tourism to begin its recovery. International arrivals to the United States grew to 22.1 million in 2021, up from 19.2 million in 2020. Spending by international visitors also grew, reaching $81.0 billion, or 34 percent of 2019’s total.

More about the Tourism Policy Council and the 2022 National Travel and Tourism Strategy

Created by Congress and chaired by Secretary Raimondo, the Tourism Policy Council (TPC) is the interagency council charged with coordinating national policies and programs relating to travel and tourism. At the direction of Secretary Raimondo, the TPC created a new five-year strategy to focus U.S. government efforts in support of the travel and tourism sector which has been deeply and disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Read the full strategy here

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What's the problem with overtourism?

With visitor numbers around the world increasing towards pre-pandemic levels, the issue of overtourism is once again rearing its head.

When locals in the charming Austrian lakeside village of Hallstatt staged a blockade of the main access tunnel, brandishing placards asking visitors to ‘think of the children’, it highlighted what can happen when places start to feel overrun by tourists. Hallstatt has just 800 residents but has opened its doors to around 10,000 visitors a day — a population increase of over 1,000%. And it’s just one of a growing number of places where residents are up in arms at the influx of travellers.

The term ‘overtourism’ is relatively new, having been coined over a decade ago to highlight the spiralling numbers of visitors taking a toll on cities, landmarks and landscapes. As tourist numbers worldwide return towards pre-pandemic levels, the debate around what constitutes ‘too many’ visitors continues. While many destinations, reliant on the income that tourism brings, are still keen for arrivals, a handful of major cities and sites are now imposing bans, fines, taxes and time-slot systems, and, in some cases, even launching campaigns of discouragement in a bid to curb tourist numbers.

What is overtourism?

In essence, overtourism is too many people in one place at any given time. While there isn’t a definitive figure stipulating the number of visitors allowed, an accumulation of economic, social and environmental factors determine if and how numbers are creeping up.

There are the wide-reaching effects, such as climate change. Coral reefs, like the Great Barrier Reef and Maya Bay, Thailand, made famous by the Leonardo DiCaprio film, The Beach , are being degraded from visitors snorkelling, diving and touching the corals, as well as tour boats anchoring in the waters. And 2030 transport-related carbon emissions from tourism are expected to grow 25% from 2016 levels, representing an increase from 5% to 5.3% of all man-made emissions, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). More localised issues are affecting locals, too. Renters are being evicted by landlords in favour of turning properties into holiday lets, and house prices are escalating as a result. As visitors and rental properties outnumber local residents, communities are being lost. And, skyrocketing prices, excessive queues, crowded beaches, exorbitant noise levels, damage at historical sites and the ramifications to nature as people overwhelm or stray from official paths are also reasons the positives of tourism can have a negative impact.

Conversely, ‘undertourism’ is a term applied to less-frequented destinations, particularly in the aftermath of the pandemic. The economic, social and environmental benefits of tourism aren't always passed on to those with plenty of capacity and, while tourist boards are always keen for visitors to visit their lesser-known attractions, it’s a more sustainable and rewarding experience for both residents and visitors.

What’s the main problem with it?

Overcrowding is an issue for both locals and tourists. It can ruin the experience of sightseeing for those trapped in long queues, unable to visit museums, galleries and sites without advance booking, incurring escalating costs for basics like food, drink and hotels, and faced with the inability to experience the wonder of a place in relative solitude. The absence of any real regulations has seen places take it upon themselves to try and establish some form of crowd control, meaning no cohesion and no real solution.

Justin Francis, co-founder and CEO of Responsible Travel, a tour operator that focuses on more sustainable travel, says “Social media has concentrated tourism in hotspots and exacerbated the problem, and tourist numbers globally are increasing while destinations have a finite capacity. Until local people are properly consulted about what they want and don’t want from tourism, we’ll see more protests.”

A French start up, Murmuration, which monitors the environmental impact of tourism by using satellite data, states that 80% of travellers visit just 10% of the world's tourism destinations, meaning bigger crowds in fewer spots. And, the UNWTO predicts that by 2030, the number of worldwide tourists, which peaked at 1.5 billion in 2019, will reach 1.8 billion,   likely leading to greater pressure on already popular spots and more objection from locals.

Who has been protesting?

Of the 800 residents in the UNESCO-listed village of Hallstatt, around 100 turned out in August to show their displeasure and to push for a cap on daily visitors and a curfew on tour coach arrivals.

Elsewhere, residents in Venice fought long and hard for a ban on cruise ships, with protest flags often draped from windows. In 2021, large cruise ships over 25,000 tonnes were banned from using the main Giudecca Canal, leaving only smaller passenger ferries and freight vessels able to dock.

In France, the Marseille Provence Cruise Club introduced a flow management system for cruise line passengers in 2020, easing congestion around the popular Notre-Dame-de-la-Garde Basilica. A Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) spokesperson said, “Coaches are limited to four per ship during the morning or afternoon at the Basilica to ensure a good visitor experience and safety for residents and local businesses. This is a voluntary arrangement respected by cruise lines.”

While in Orkney, Scotland, residents have been up in arms at the number of cruise ships docking on its shores. At the beginning of 2023, the local council confirmed that 214 cruise ship calls were scheduled for the year, bringing around £15 million in revenue to the islands. Following backlash from locals, the council has since proposed a plan to restrict the number of ships on any day.

What steps are being taken?  

City taxes have become increasingly popular, with Barcelona increasing its nightly levy in April 2023 — which was originally introduced in 2012 and varies depending on the type of accommodation — and Venice expects to charge day-trippers a €5 fee from 2024.

In Amsterdam this summer, the city council voted to ban cruise ships, while the mayor, Femke Halsema, commissioned a campaign of discouragement, asking young British men who planned to have a 'vacation from morals’ to stay away. In Rome, sitting at popular sites, such as the Trevi Fountain and the Spanish Steps, has been restricted by the authorities.

And in Kenya’s Maasai Mara, meanwhile, the Narok County governor has introduced on-the-spot fines for off-roading. He also plans to double nightly park fees in peak season.

What are the forecasts for global tourism?  

During the Covid pandemic, tourism was one of the hardest-hit industries — according to UNWTO, international tourist arrivals dropped 72% in 2020. However, traveller numbers have since been rapidly increasing, with double the number of people venturing abroad in the first three months of 2023 than in the same period in 2022. And, according to the World Travel Tourism Council, the tourism sector is expected to reach £7.5 trillion this year, 95% of its pre-pandemic levels.

While the tourism industry is forecast to represent 11.6% of the global economy by 2033, it’s also predicted that an increasing number of people will show more interest in travelling more sustainably. In a 2022 survey by Booking.com, 64% of the people asked said they would be prepared to stay away from busy tourist sites to avoid adding to congestion.

Are there any solutions?  

There are ways to better manage tourism by promoting more off-season travel, limiting numbers where possible and having greater regulation within the industry. Encouraging more sustainable travel and finding solutions to reduce friction between residents and tourists could also have positive impacts. Promoting alternative, less-visited spots to redirect travellers may also offer some benefits.

Harold Goodwin, emeritus professor at Manchester Metropolitan University, says, “Overtourism is a function of visitor volumes, but also of conflicting behaviours, crowding in inappropriate places and privacy. Social anthropologists talk about frontstage and backstage spaces. Tourists are rarely welcome in backstage spaces. To manage crowds, it’s first necessary to analyse and determine the causes of them.

Francis adds: “However, we must be careful not to just recreate the same problems elsewhere. The most important thing is to form a clear strategy, in consultation with local people about what a place wants or needs from tourism.”

As it stands, overtourism is a seasonal issue for a small number of destinations. While there is no one-size-fits-all solution, a range of measures are clearly an option depending on the scale of the problem. For the majority of the world, tourism remains a force for good with many benefits beyond simple economic growth.

Related Topics

• OVERTOURISM
• SUSTAINABLE TOURISM

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What is the future of travel?

All aboard! After the pandemic upended life and leisure as we know it, travel is roaring back. The industry is set to make a full recovery by the end of 2024, after losing 75 percent of its value in 2020. Much of this has been so-called “revenge travel,” or people embarking on international or bucket list trips that were delayed by the pandemic. But domestic travel is recovering quickly too and is set to represent 70 percent of travel spending by 2030.

Get to know and directly engage with senior McKinsey experts on travel and tourism

Margaux Constantin is a partner in McKinsey’s Dubai office, Matteo Pacca is a senior partner in the Paris office, and Vik Krishnan is a senior partner in the Bay Area office.

We’ve done a deep dive into the latest travel trends and how industry players can adjust accordingly in The state of travel and hospitality 2024 report. Check out the highlights below, as well as McKinsey’s insights on AI in travel, mass tourism, and much more.

Learn more about McKinsey’s Travel, Logistics, and Infrastructure Practice .

Who are today’s travelers, and what do they want?

In February and March 2024, McKinsey surveyed  more than 5,000 people in China, Germany, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Kingdom, and the United States who had taken at least one leisure trip in the past two years. Here are six highlights from the results of that survey:

• Travel is a top priority, especially for younger generations. Sixty-six percent of travelers we surveyed said they are more interested in travel now than before the COVID-19 pandemic. And millennials and Gen Zers  are traveling more and spending a higher share of their income on travel than their older counterparts.
• Younger travelers are keen to travel abroad. Gen Zers and millennials who responded to our survey are planning nearly an equal number of international and domestic trips in 2024. Older generations are planning to take twice as many domestic trips.
• Baby boomers are willing to spend if they see value. Baby boomers still account for 20 percent of overall travel spending. They are willing to spend on comforts such as nonstop flights. On the other hand, they are more willing to forego experiences to save money while traveling, unlike Gen Zers who will cut all other expense categories before they trim experiences.
• Travel is a collective story, with destinations as the backdrop. Travelers both want to hear other travelers’ stories and share their own. Ninety-two percent of younger travelers were inspired by social media in some shape or form for their last trip.
• What travelers want depends on where they’re from. Sixty-nine percent of Chinese respondents said they plan to visit a famous sight on their next trip, versus the 20 percent of European and North American travelers who said the same. Respondents living in the UAE also favor iconic destinations, as well as shopping and outdoor activities.

Learn more about McKinsey’s  Travel, Logistics, and Infrastructure Practice .

What are the top three travel industry trends today?

Travel is back, but traveler flows are shifting. McKinsey has isolated three major themes for industry stakeholders to consider as they look ahead.

• The bulk of travel spending is close to home. Seventy-five percent of travel spend is domestic. The United States is currently the world’s largest domestic travel market, but China is set to overtake it in the coming years. Stakeholders should make sure they capture the full potential of domestic travelers before turning their attention abroad.
• New markets such as India, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe are growing sources of outbound tourism. Indians’ travel spending is expected to grow 9 percent per year between now and 2030; annual growth projections for Southeast Asians and Eastern Europeans are both around 7 percent.
• Unexpected destinations are finding new ways to lure travelers and establish themselves alongside enduring favorites. Rwanda, for example, has capitalized on sustainable tourism by limiting gorilla trekking permits and directing revenue toward conservation.

Introducing McKinsey Explainers : Direct answers to complex questions

For a more in-depth look at these trends, check out McKinsey’s State of travel and hospitality 2024   report .

How will AI change how people travel?

In the 1950s, the introduction of the jet engine dramatically reduced travel times, changing the way people traveled forever. Now AI is upending the industry  in a similarly fundamental way. Industry players down to individual travelers are using advances in generative AI (gen AI) , machine learning , and deep learning  to reimagine what it means to plan, book, and experience travel. “It’s quite clear,” says McKinsey partner Vik Krishnan , “that gen AI significantly eases  the process of travel discovery.”

For travel companies, the task now is to rethink how they interact with customers, develop products and services, and manage operations in the age of AI. According to estimates by McKinsey Digital, companies that holistically address digital and analytics opportunities have the potential to see an earnings improvement of up to 25 percent .

McKinsey and Skift Research interviewed executives from 17 companies across five types of travel business. Here are three key findings on how travel companies can reckon with emerging technologies, drawn from the resulting report The promise of travel in the age of AI :

• Segmentation. Companies can use AI to create hyperspecific customer segments to guide how they interact with and serve customers. Segmentation can be based on a single macro characteristic (such as business versus leisure), or it can be so specific as to relate to just one customer.
• Surprise and delight. In the travel context, gen AI could take the form of digital assistants that interact with customers throughout their journeys, providing personalized trip itineraries and tailored recommendations and helping to resolve unexpected disruptions.
• Equipping workers better. AI tools can free up frontline workers’ time, allowing them to focus more on personal customer interactions. These tools can also shorten the training time for new hires and quickly upskill  the existing workforce.

AI is important, yes. But, according to Ella Alkalay Schreiber, general manager (GM) of fintech at Hopper, “The actual challenge is to understand the data, ask the right questions, read prediction versus actual, and do this in a timely manner. The actual challenge is the human thinking, the common sense .”

How is mass tourism changing travel?

More people are traveling than ever before. The most visited destinations are experiencing more concentrated flows of tourists ; 80 percent of travelers visit just 10 percent of the world’s tourist destinations. Mass tourism can encumber infrastructure, frustrate locals, and even harm the attractions that visitors came to see in the first place.

Tourism stakeholders can collectively look for better ways to handle visitor flows before they become overwhelming. Destinations should remain alert to early warning signs about high tourism concentration and work to maximize the benefits of tourism, while minimizing its negative impacts.

Destinations should remain alert to early warning signs about high tourism concentration and work to maximize the benefits of tourism, while minimizing its negative impacts.

For one thing, destinations should understand their carrying capacity of tourists—that means the specific number of visitors a destination can accommodate before harm is caused to its physical, economic, or sociocultural environment. Shutting down tourism once the carrying capacity is reached isn’t always possible—or advisable. Rather, destinations should focus on increasing carrying capacity to enable more growth.

Next, destinations should assess their readiness to handle mass tourism and choose funding sources and mechanisms that can address its impacts. Implementing permitting systems for individual attractions can help manage capacity and mitigate harm. Proceeds from tourism can be reinvested into local communities to ensure that residents are not solely responsible for repairing the wear and tear caused by visitors.

After risks and funding sources have been identified, destinations can prepare for growing tourist volumes in the following ways:

• Build and equip a tourism-ready workforce to deliver positive tourism experiences.
• Use data (gathered from governments, businesses, social media platforms, and other sources) to manage visitor flows.
• Be deliberate about which tourist segments to attract (business travelers, sports fans, party groups, et cetera), and tailor offerings and communications accordingly.
• Distribute visitor footfall across different areas, nudging tourists to visit less-trafficked locations, and during different times, promoting off-season travel.
• Be prepared for sudden, unexpected fluctuations triggered by viral social media and cultural trends.
• Preserve cultural and natural heritage. Engage locals, especially indigenous people, to find the balance between preservation and tourism.

How can the travel sector accelerate the net-zero transition?

Global warming is getting worse, and the travel sector contributes up to 11 percent of total carbon emissions. Many consumers are aware that travel is part of the problem, but they’re reticent to give up their trips: travel activity is expected to soar by 85 percent  from 2016 to 2030. Instead, they’re increasing pressure on companies in the travel sector to achieve net zero . It’s a tall order: the range of decarbonization technologies in the market is limited, and what’s available is expensive.

But decarbonization doesn’t have to be a loss-leading proposition. Here are four steps  travel companies can take toward decarbonization that can potentially create value:

• Identify and sequence decarbonization initiatives. Awareness of decarbonization levers is one thing; implementation is quite another. One useful tool to help develop an implementation plan is the marginal abatement cost curve pathway framework, which provides a cost-benefit analysis of individual decarbonization levers and phasing plans.
• Partner to accelerate decarbonization of business travel. Many organizations will reduce their business travel, which accounts for 30 percent of all travel spend. This represents an opportunity for travel companies to partner with corporate clients on decarbonization. Travel companies can support their partners in achieving their decarbonization goals by nudging corporate users to make more sustainable choices, while making reservations and providing data to help partners track their emissions.
• Close the ‘say–do’ gap among leisure travelers. One McKinsey survey indicates that 40 percent of travelers globally say they are willing to pay at least 2 percent more for carbon-neutral flights. But Skift’s latest consumer survey reveals that only 14 percent  of travelers said they actually paid more for sustainable travel options. Travel companies can help close this gap by making sustainable options more visible during booking and using behavioral science to encourage travelers to make sustainable purchases.
• Build new sustainable travel options for the future. The travel sector can proactively pioneer sustainable new products and services. Green business building will require companies to create special initiatives, led by teams empowered to experiment without the pressure of being immediately profitable.

What’s the future of air travel?

Air travel is becoming more seasonal, as leisure travel’s increasing share of the market creates more pronounced summer peaks. Airlines have responded by shifting their schedules to operate more routes at greater frequency during peak periods. But airlines have run into turbulence when adjusting to the new reality. Meeting summer demand means buying more aircraft and hiring more crew; come winter, these resources go unutilized, which lowers productivity . But when airlines don’t run more flights in the summer, they leave a lot of money on the table.

How can airlines respond to seasonality? Here are three approaches :

• Mitigate winter weakness by employing conventional pricing and revenue management techniques, as well as creative pricing approaches (including, for example, monitoring and quickly seizing on sudden travel demand spikes, such as those created by a period of unexpectedly sunny weather).
• Adapt to seasonality by moving crew training sessions to off-peak periods, encouraging employee holiday taking during trough months, and offering workers seasonal contracts. Airlines can also explore outsourcing of crew, aircraft, maintenance, and even insurance.
• Leverage summer strengths, ensuring that commercial contracts reflect summer’s higher margins.

How is the luxury travel space evolving?

Quickly. Luxury travelers are not who you might expect: many are under the age of 60 and not necessarily from Europe or the United States. Perhaps even more surprisingly, they are not all millionaires: 35 percent of luxury-travel spending is by travelers with net worths between $100,000 and $1 million. Members of this group are known as aspirational luxury travelers, and they have their own set of preferences. They might be willing to spend big on one aspect of their trip—a special meal or a single flight upgrade—but not on every travel component. They prefer visibly branded luxury and pay close attention to loyalty program points and benefits .

The luxury-hospitality space is projected to grow faster than any other segment, at 6 percent per year  through 2025. And competition for luxury hotels is intensifying too: customers now have the option of renting luxurious villas with staff, or booking nonluxury hotels with luxury accoutrements such as rainfall showerheads and mattress toppers.

Another critical evolution is that the modern consumer, in the luxury space and elsewhere, values experiences over tangible things (exhibit).

Luxury properties may see more return from investing in a culture of excellence—powered by staff who anticipate customer needs, exceed expectations, create cherished memories, and make it all feel seamless—than in marble floors and gold-plated bath fixtures. Here are a few ways luxury properties can foster a culture of excellence :

• Leaders should assume the role of chief culture officer. GMs of luxury properties should lead by example to help nurture a healthy and happy staff culture and listen and respond to staff concerns.
• Hire for personalities, not resumes. “You can teach someone how to set a table,” said one GM we interviewed, “but you can’t teach a positive disposition.”
• Celebrate and reward employees. Best-in-class service is about treating customers with generosity and care. Leaders in the service sector can model this behavior by treating employees similarly.
• Create a truly distinctive customer experience . McKinsey research has shown that the top factor influencing customer loyalty in the lodging sector is “an experience worth paying more for”—not the product. Train staff to focus on tiny details as well as major needs to deliver true personalization.

What’s the latest in travel loyalty programs?

Loyalty programs are big business . They’ve evolved past being simply ways to boost sales or strengthen customer relationships; now, for many travel companies, they are profit centers in their own right. One major development was that travel companies realized they could sell loyalty points in bulk to corporate partners, who in turn offered the points to their customers as rewards. In 2019, United’s MileagePlus loyalty program sold $3.8 billion worth of miles to third parties, which accounted for 12 percent of the airline’s total revenue for that year. In 2022, American Airlines’ loyalty program brought in $3.1 billion in revenue, and Marriott’s brought in $2.7 billion.

But as this transition has happened, travel players have shifted focus away from the original purpose of these programs. Travel companies are seeing these loyalty programs primarily as revenue generators, rather than ways to improve customer experiences . As a result, loyalty program members have become increasingly disloyal. Recent loyalty surveys conducted by McKinsey revealed a steep decline in the likelihood that a customer would recommend airline, hotel, and cruise line loyalty programs to a friend. The same surveys also found that airline loyalty programs are driving fewer customer behavior changes than they used to.

So how can travel brands win customers’ loyalty back? Here are three steps to consider:

• Put experience at the core of loyalty programs. According to our 2023 McKinsey Travel Loyalty Survey , American respondents said they feel more loyal to Amazon than to the top six travel players combined, despite the absence of any traditional loyalty program. One of the reasons for Amazon’s success may be the frictionless experience it provides customers. Companies should strive to design loyalty programs around experiential benefits that make travelers feel special and seamlessly integrate customer experiences between desktop, mobile, and physical locations.
• Use data to offer personalization  to members. Travel brands have had access to customer data for a long time. But many have yet to deploy it for maximum value. Companies can use personalization to tailor both experiences and offers for loyalty members; our research has shown that 78 percent  of consumers are more likely to make a repeat purchase when offered a personalized experience.
• Rethink partnerships. Traditionally, travel companies have partnered with banks to offer cobranded credit cards. But many credit card brands now offer their own, self-branded travel rewards ecosystems. These types of partnerships may have diminishing returns in the future. When rethinking partnerships, travel brands should seek to build richer connections with customers, while boosting engagement. Uber’s partnership with Marriott, for example, gives users the option to link the brands’ loyalty programs, tapping into two large customer bases and providing more convenient travel experiences.

In a changing travel ecosystem, travel brands will need to ask themselves some hard questions if they want to earn back their customers’ loyalty.

Learn more about McKinsey’s Travel, Logistics, and Infrastructure Practice . And check out travel-related job opportunities if you’re interested in working at McKinsey.

Articles referenced include:

• “ Updating perceptions about today’s luxury traveler ,” May 29, 2024, Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann
• “ The way we travel now ,” May 29, 2024, Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann
• “ Destination readiness: Preparing for the tourist flows of tomorrow ,” May 29, 2024, Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann
• “ How the world’s best hotels deliver exceptional customer experience ,” March 18, 2024, Ryan Mann , Ellen Scully, Matthew Straus, and Jillian Tellez Holub
• “ How airlines can handle busier summers—and comparatively quiet winters ,” January 8, 2024, Jaap Bouwer, Ludwig Hausmann , Nina Lind , Christophe Verstreken, and Stavros Xanthopoulos
• “ Travel invented loyalty as we know it. Now it’s time for reinvention. ,” November 15, 2023, Lidiya Chapple, Clay Cowan, Ellen Scully, and Jillian Tellez Holub
• “ What AI means for travel—now and in the future ,” November 2, 2023, Alex Cosmas  and Vik Krishnan
• “ The promise of travel in the age of AI ,” September 27, 2023, Susann Almasi, Alex Cosmas , Sam Cowan, and Ben Ellencweig
• “ The future of tourism: Bridging the labor gap enhancing customer experience ,” August 1, 2023, Urs Binggeli, Zi Chen, Steffen Köpke, and Jackey Yu
• “ Hotels in the 2030s: Perspectives from Accor’s C-suite ,” July 27, 2023, Aurélia Bettati
• “ Tourism in the metaverse: Can travel go virtual? ,” May 4, 2023, Margaux Constantin , Giuseppe Genovese, Kashiff Munawar, and Rebecca Stone
• “ Three innovations to solve hotel staffing shortages ,” April 3, 2023, Ryan Mann , Esteban Ramirez, and Matthew Straus
• “ Accelerating the transition to net-zero travel ,” September 20, 2022, Danielle Bozarth , Olivier Cheret, Vik Krishnan , Mackenzie Murphy, and Jules Seeley
• “ The six secrets of profitable airlines ,” June 28, 2022, Jaap Bouwer, Alex Dichter , Vik Krishnan , and Steve Saxon
• “ How to ‘ACE’ hospitality recruitment ,” June 23, 2022, Margaux Constantin , Steffen Köpke, and Joost Krämer
• “ Opportunities for industry leaders as new travelers take to the skies ,” April 5, 2022, Mishal Ahmad, Frederik Franz, Tomas Nauclér, and Daniel Riefer
• “ Rebooting customer experience to bring back the magic of travel ,” September 21, 2021, Vik Krishnan , Kevin Neher, Maurice Obeid , Ellen Scully, and Jules Seeley

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Home » Blog » A fast-changing world: The massive challenges facing international tourism

A fast-changing world: The massive challenges facing international tourism

Covid-19 disrupted most industries, but especially travel and tourism. In 2020, worldwide aviation passenger numbers dropped by 60% compared to the year before. 2021 saw some recovery, although numbers were still about half of 2019’s figures. After 9/11, it took six full years before airline passenger numbers returned to their pre-crisis peak.

The pandemic has changed consumer behaviour in ways which are still playing out. There is the possibility of new variants causing short-notice border restrictions in the future. Aside from Covid, international travel remains hampered by confusion, concern and unpredictability. Here, we look at the giant challenges facing travel and tourism in a fast-changing world.

Inflation and the rising costs of travel

2022 has seen increasing inflation around the world – in the UK, it’s currently 9.1%, which is the highest rate since 1982. Product shortages resulting from supply-chain disruption caused by Covid-19, high consumer demand driven by historically robust job growth, plus rising fuel prices partially caused by the war in Ukraine have created a perfect storm of increasing prices.

From a travel point of view, this means:

• Airfares are at record highs
• Lodging prices – for hotels and motels etc – are volatile
• Car rentals have seen big increases – as of May 2022, prices were around 70% higher than in May 2019

At the same time as rising prices, the economic backdrop – staff shortages and continued supply chain difficulties – means that service-providers often have to offer a reduced service. For example, many hotels are cutting back on amenities including daily housekeeping and room service . The Guardian recently labelled this phenomenon – of businesses simultaneously increasing their prices and reducing their service – as skimpflation .

Brands need to do this to protect their margins. But with a cost of living crisis, the risk is that skimpflation will deter leisure travellers from expensive vacations. There is also the potential for brand damage as well, if consumers don’t feel they have received value for money.

Short staffing affects ability to meet customer expectations

Many travel businesses laid off or lost staff during the pandemic – reportedly, a total of 62 million tourism-related jobs were lost worldwide in 2020. Now that leisure demand is building again, businesses have struggled to hire enough replacements. Short staffing explains the scenes of airport chaos we’ve seen, not just in the UK but around the world (although Europe seems to be the epicentre ). Once staff leave a sector – Deloitte reported 300,000 fewer hotel workers worldwide in October 2021 than two years previously – it can be hard to replace them.

As with rising prices caused by inflation, staff shortages make it harder to meet travellers’ expectations. The chaotic scenes at airports like Heathrow and Gatwick this summer went viral, acting as a possible deterrent for some travellers. Guests may be unwilling to accept a hotel’s housekeeping-by-request service if they are still paying full price.

In the short term, labour shortages are hard to address. Deloitte states that longer term, automation could help with some aspects of hotel services – for example, contactless check-in reducing the need for reception staff – but cleaning rooms and operating restaurants still requires human labour. If staff shortages persist – and there are indications that they may do – hotels may start to experiment with itemised charges for amenities such as housekeeping. As these once-standard parts of the hotel experience become unbundled, they could potentially form part of loyalty programmes.

Corporate travel’s slow return

Before the pandemic, about 20% of travel was work related. Business travellers accounted for about 12% of airline passengers but thanks to business class fares, typically generated twice as much money per person as non-business class passengers. A key question post-pandemic was the rate at which business travel would resume.

Whilst business travel has resumed to some extent, there are headwinds:

• CEOs and CFOs are likely to continue to scrutinise travel spend and ROI after operating successfully throughout the pandemic with fewer business trips.
• Businesses are under pressure to reduce their carbon footprint. Less travel means less emissions. Many companies are reviewing their business travel policies to support sustainability goals – this seems likely to result in reduced trip frequency, limits on long-haul travel, and more meetings online.
• Companies have learned in the last two years which meetings really do require face-to-face interaction, and which can be carried out successfully using video conferencing. Whilst trips to visit prospects and network at conferences will probably endure, it seems likely that routine or internal meetings and training will continue to rely heavily on virtual connection.

That said, the pandemic has contributed to a growing trend of ‘bleisure’ travel. This refers to travellers who mix business trips with leisure. Newly flexible work arrangements, including the opportunity for knowledge workers to work remotely, have created opportunities for extended travel, no longer limited by a Monday to Friday 9-til-5 workweek in the office – which leads us to…

Remote workers have created a new travel niche

The increase in remote working and digital nomads has created a new travel niche. With workers untethered from the office, they now have scope to work from other locations. These travellers have a particular set of attributes or requirements:

• Above average buying power
• Greater flexibility on travel dates
• A need for a quiet, comfortable space to work – perhaps away from crowded tourist areas
• Fast and reliable Wi-Fi
• Access to wellness-related amenities, such as gyms or healthy meals on the go
• The flexibility to reschedule leisure activities to accommodate work

This traveller niche might mean that subscription models – which have historically struggled due to low frequency of travel – may get a second look. For example, the Mandarin Oriental in Washington offers a service called MOBase , aimed squarely at travellers who blur the lines between work and leisure. This is available on a subscription basis, which can be shared within organisations. In the face of reduced corporate travel, higher-spending remote workers and their particular demands could attract more attention in the years ahead.

A trend towards short-term rental accommodation

Before the pandemic, there was a trend toward short-term rental accommodation as an alternative to hotels. The pandemic saw this trend accelerate – with health concerns being a major driver of demand. The greater space and privacy in an Airbnb-style apartment allows for more social distancing. Deloitte estimates that more than four in 10 rental travellers said they had been introduced to the accommodation type for the first time during the pandemic. Three-quarters say they plan to continue choosing rental accommodation even as the pandemic recedes.

The shift towards remote work and the rise of the ‘bleisure’ traveller seem likely to increase rentals’ popularity – as remote workers take longer trips and need space to work. In turn, increased interest in this accommodation type could push hotels to evolve their offerings per the Mandarin Oriental example above – for example, by offering home-like amenities such as kitchenettes, adjoining rooms and study areas.

Consumers are increasingly concerned about sustainability

According to Sustainable Travel International, tourism is responsible for about 8% of the world’s carbon emissions . Businesses are under pressure from both consumers and governments to become more sustainable. The tourism industry faces the challenge of adding decarbonisation to its value proposition. In practice, this means re-examining what travel should look like and how sustainable practices can be incorporated. This will require collaboration across the whole industry.

On a marketing level, as climate change and its effect on natural resources become more salient for travellers, sustainability will become a more dominant theme. Younger consumers in particular want to see businesses stand for something. In practice, this means:

• Businesses showing what steps they have taken to reduce their carbon footprint
• Businesses offering customers tools and information about what they can do on an individual level to make their travels more sustainable
• Countries and destinations playing up themes like conservation in their marketing

For example, Ryanair offers a carbon calculator on its website which allows customers to understand the carbon emissions of each flight, so they can offset if they so choose. Other travel brands taking positive action include:

• Hilton Hotels has installed energy-efficient lighting in all its buildings and will also be sourcing from local suppliers.
• Royal Caribbean’s ships have purification systems to remove 98% of sulphur dioxide emissions from their exhausts.
• British Airways is committed to cutting CO2 emissions in half by 2050 and is building a plant that produces fuel from household waste.
• Virgin Atlantic is partnering with manufacturers to create a jet fuel that will create 50% less carbon than fossil fuels.

The industry will need to look at the end-to-end travel journey – i.e. all touch points, not just air travel. The hope is that sustainable travel can be achieved without creating additional pain points for travellers.

Disasters – both man-made and natural – are an ever-present threat

As any tourism business knows – especially those with operations in major cities – security risks such as terrorist attacks or political unrest are a grim reality, alongside threats from natural disasters such as pandemics, tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, volcanoes, avalanches and so on. For example, last month TUI cancelled all holidays to Sri Lanka because of the ongoing political unrest and economic instability. This month, Sydney suffered its fourth major flood in two years, with the city receiving in one single weekend more rain than would typically fall in London in a year. The twenty first century is shaping up to be a volatile one.

Oban has a long track record of helping tourism and attraction businesses grow internationally. Previously, we have won Best Digital Marketing Campaign and Best Use of Search Engine Marketing at the UK’s prestigious Travolution Awards. To find out how we can help your travel business, please get in touch .

Oban International is the digital marketing agency specialising in international expansion. Our LIME (Local In-Market Expert) Network provides up to date cultural input and insights from over 80 markets around the world, helping clients realise the best marketing opportunities and avoid the costliest mistakes.

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12 Tourism Trends That Will Shape the Travel Industry in 2022 and Beyond

Table of Content

1. bleisure travel, 2. automation, 3. mobile bookings, 4. personalization, 5. tech-empowered travel, 6. sustainable tourism, 7. active ecotourism, 8. transformative travel, 9. experience tourism, 10. wellness travel, 11. longer trips, 12. staycation.

With travelers’ desire for new experiences, the rapid global technological advancements, climate change, and other dynamics, the travel and tourism industry is constantly transforming.

Having experienced an all-time high in the past decade, with 2018 recording the highest international tourist arrival, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) , the sector is now undeniably faced with big challenges and uncomfortable changes following the COVID-19 pandemic.

All the same, there are still rising tourism trends that can help tour operators , Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs) , and other industry suppliers to revamp their businesses and experience success as we get into the new normal.

From experiential and transformative travel to automation and Bleisure trips, there are new opportunities companies should focus on.

In this article, we’ll go through the top tourism trends right now and highlight how leisure businesses can stay on top of their game and rebuild tourism for the future. 

Bleisure travel is a growing tourism trend where people extend their business travel to leisure activities. Experts predict it will continue to grow in the mobile workforce. Although business travel has started to make its comeback in 2021, bleisure is believed to be its future. 

A 2018 study revealed that 60% of U.S. business trips incorporated leisure elements, an increase from 43% in 2016.

These business-leisure trips can either be pre-planned, whereby clients schedule their vacation within the same period of a job-related trip. Companies may also offer their workers some tourist experiences during work trips. 

On the other hand, this can come as an afterthought. Once the meetings, professional conferences, and other work engagements are over, business travelers may decide to extend their stay and explore their destination.

There is also a growing trend among millennials known as the “digital nomad” phenomenon. This is whereby online workers and freelancers adopt the lifestyle of traveling as they work.

As a tour operator, you can take advantage of this growing trend by creating offers that entice business travelers to extend their stay for leisure. For example, you can sell team retreat packages combined with perks like photos, videos, and transportation. 

Having wifi and chargers in buses and accommodation (for multi-day tours) can also entice digital nomads and other travelers looking to stay connected for work.

Gone are the days when booking a trip required clients to make a phone call, speak directly to a service provider, or walk into the supplier’s office for face-to-face negotiation. 

Digitization has led to a rise in online bookings. Not only has this made advertising cheaper for travel companies , but also customers are enjoying and increasingly prefer the convenience it offers.

Tour and activities companies have also progressively adopted technology and online booking. In 2019, 71% of operators surveyed were using reservation technology in their businesses, a marked increase from just 25% in 2010. More to that, these companies experienced faster growth plus higher profitability. 

Booking systems help tour & activity providers automate their processes and be more effective by adopting cutting-edge technologies. Long gone are the days when you are using spreadsheets, pen and paper to manage your reservations: booking systems do it all automatically, save your time and money. For example, Regiondo booking system has won European travel market by providing seamless reservation experience, flexibility and innovations to businesses of any size.

As we approach the post-COVID period, automation in the sector is bound to continue rising. The increasing digitalization of tourism also generates new business opportunities and promotes the sustainable development of the sector. So as you work on getting back to profitability, take advantage of this tourism trend, and set up the right technology in order to increase your chances of faster recovery.

Another important aspect when it comes to digitization is mobile bookings . 

Operators report that 2 in 5 online bookings are made on mobile devices. These smartphone shoppers are also more valuable to your business because of the following reasons:

• They spend 50% more on tours and activities per trip.
• They average 2.9 tours per trip.
• They are twice as likely to leave online reviews .

Source: Arival Travel

According to Think with Google , 57% of travelers believe that companies should personalize their buying experience and base it on their behaviors, personal preferences, and past choices.

Personalization is also important when it comes to the actual tour or activity. By offering flexible experiences that can be tailored to a traveler’s needs, you stand a chance of better satisfying your clients, and that can lead to repeat visits. Your priority should, therefore, be on offering customer-oriented services.

It starts right from the time they see your advert on social media or your website. The messaging should resonate with what the client prefers. Travel and tour suggestions can be offered according to, for instance, what the customer has been browsing on the internet. This is possible to set up using specialized marketing tools and ad platforms like Google and Facebook.

You are better placed by factoring this into your company’s digital marketing strategy. How do you get started? Reach out and speak to your customers to learn about their preferences , characteristics, behavior, and individual needs.

All in all, staying on top of this tourism trend can be the distinction that will make your company stand out from competitors and gain back profitability faster.

We already talked about automation and mobile bookings as some of the future trends in the tourism sector. But existing and emerging technologies will continue to influence travel in many other ways. 

A recent Amadeus survey states that technology and innovation seem to be key in building traveler confidence and they will increase willingness to travel in the next 12 months.

Technologies proved to be crucial in the post-pandemic world where international tourists need to present Digital COVID Certificates or fill out travel documentation. What is more, people need instant access to information and help when being abroad.

In the coming year, tech innovations will continue to bring ease to the travel experience. The top five technologies that would increase confidence to travel in the next 12 months are:

• Mobile applications that provide on-trip notifications and alerts (44%)
• Self-service check-in (41%)
• Contactless mobile payments, e.g., Apple Pay (41%)
• Automated and flexible cancellation policies (40%)
• Mobile boarding (40%)

In addition to supporting people throughout their journey, technologies made innovative solutions possible. Virtual tours, experiences, and classes gained significant popularity during the lockdowns, and thanks to tech innovation, many businesses survived the crisis.

The first step for technology-empowered travel experience is a website. However, to make sure your customers can easily find you in the search engines, it is important to care about your SEO metrics. Try our free SEO Grader tool to learn how your website performs and get free recommendations on how you can improve it.

Following the COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference and the launch of The Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action , countries are urged to accelerate climate action in tourism. So encouraging sustainable tourism practices and environmental initiatives is of utmost importance for the resilience of the sector. 

The UNWTO Secretary-general has warned that the “climate emergency is a bigger threat than Covid”. As international travelers become aware of this crisis, they come to believe that people need to take action now and make sustainable travel choices in order to save the planet and preserve it for future generations.

More travelers are adopting this mindset hence making their travel decisions with the environment in mind. 

But it’s important to note that sustainability is not only about the environment. It’s also about making a positive impact on cultures, economies, and the people at the destinations that clients visit.

In the post-COVID-19 era, sustainability will be a continuous trend in travel and tourism. If you play your part in upholding sustainability, you can earn the trust and loyalty of the generation of travelers who are spearheading this trend.

Active Ecotourism is another trend that has emerged in response to the calls for more sustainable and thoughtful tourism. It encourages combining the passion for travel with direct involvement in conservation and supporting the local environment.

According to a recent Amadeus survey on rebuilding travel, people consider cost-effective sustainable travel a priority.

37% of travelers surveyed think opportunities for travelers to be involved in the preservation of tourist destinations will help the industry to become more sustainable in the long term.

According to Evolve’s 2022 travel forecasts , 58% of people will be more interested in exploring the outdoors and practicing relevant activities including hiking, biking , and kayaking . Mountain/rural escapes and waterfront getaways are expected to be popular vacation experiences in 2022.

Covid-19 has drawn our attention to the negative impact of travel on the global environment and initiated a promise for ‘coming back better’. So the tourism industry will continue this trend by promoting sustainable outdoor travel and ecotourism in the post-pandemic era.

This is a new tourism trend that’s quickly gaining popularity. Transformative travel is about not just traveling for leisure but also aiming to make a difference in both the lives of others and oneself. 

Volunteering trips are an example of the experiences that have gained popularity from this trend. Travelers vacation and also set aside time to volunteer at their travel destinations. 

When it comes to making a difference in their own lives, clients can opt to go for wellness holidays where they retreat and either join a yoga class, relax at a nature-filled destination, or attend some apprenticeship classes to learn a new skill. 

Because of this trend, there is also a notable change in the travelers’ diet. Instead of indulging in unhealthy meals, those who’ve joined the organic food movement prefer places that offer highly nutritious and organic foods.

One of the main aims of transformative travel is to be involved in something that’s significant and adds purpose to the trip. Booking.com shares that 68% of global travelers would consider participating in cultural exchanges to learn a new skill, followed by a volunteering trip (54%) and international work placements (52%).

Based on this trend, tour operators can focus on offering unique and purposeful activities along with their usual products and services.

Experience tourism is on the rise . This trend is about having a once-in-a-lifetime experience or gaining an emotional connection with cultures and nature. 

As travelers get tired or bored of cookie-cutter vacations in touristy hot spots, they begin looking for an authentic experience in their travel destination. They can easily go for a brand that will allow them to mingle with the locals and experience the culture of the people.

Harris Group did a study that revealed that 72% of millennials prefer spending more money on unique experiences rather than on material things.

So, if you can offer these experiences, then you’re well on your way to acquiring this increasing breed of clients. One of the most popular experiences is food sampling. Food tourism enables travelers to enjoy different local cuisines, maybe even learn how to cook some of the recipes, and interact with the people’s traditions in the process.

Another way clients want to experience their destinations is by staying with local families rather than in hotels. This gives them a chance to interact even closer with the locals and see their way of life.

These are travelers looking for an enriching experience with the primary purpose of achieving, promoting, or maintaining the best health and sense of well-being and balance in life.

But don’t think wellness travel is limited to resorts and spas. Almost any business can take advantage of this trend.

Think of how you can market your business offers as a way to contribute to wellness tourism by developing and promoting communities and showing how both tourists and locals can benefit.

For example, a helicopter tour, paragliding flight, or whatever fun adventure your company offers, is a chance for personal growth by conquering fears or expanding horizons. Your existing offers may give the chance for people to empower themselves by learning a new skill set which also encourages personal growth.

With international travel returning to some degree, tourists are starting to dream about extended long-distance trips again. While countries are advocating for less air travel, this trend will allow people to travel less but better.

According to Evolve’s 2022 travel forecasts , the average trip will likely be longer in length (5-7 nights in 2022, compared to an average of 3.8 nights in both 2020 and 2021).

Longer trips will be increasing in demand as a result of the many work-from-home opportunities too. A study by Envoy finds that the hybrid work model gives employees more flexibility to get work done when they’re most productive.

So those who work remotely are more likely to plan extended stays in 2022 and beyond.

Staycation is another trend that gained popularity during the pandemic. It represents a holiday spent in one’s home country or home rather than abroad. Often involves day trips for exploring local attractions and activities. This type of vacation is ideal for people who are feeling the need of escaping out of their homes but want to avoid the ongoing Covid-19 regulations.

New research suggests that the trend will continue into 2022 despite the easing of international travel restrictions. This is because tourists want to support their local markets well as feel secure and safe in their holiday environment.

So small tour/activity businesses and accommodation providers can rest assured that there will be a constant stream of visitors during the years to come.

As a tour operator or DMO, it’s best to keep an eye on these tourism trends and begin strategizing. These include:

• The merging of business and leisure travels
• Increasing automation
• Mobile bookings
• Personalization of trips
• Tech-Empowered Travel
• Active ecotourism
• A focus on sustainable tourism
• Transformative travel
• Experience tourism
• Wellness travel
• Longer trips
• Staycations

Have a plan of how to meet the needs of your clients and take advantage of these trends. This can be the much-needed headstart to help you emerge above your competition as you seek to recover from the consequences of the pandemic.

You might also like:

• The Rise of Bleisure Travel and How to Make the Most of it
• Travel Like a Local: How Tour Operators Can Make the Most of This Trend
• Health Tourism in the EU: Facts and Figures
• Virtual Reality in Travel: 9 Applications for Tours, Destinations & Activities
• The Rise of Solo Travel and How to Make the Most of it
• When Numbers Matter: The Travel Statistics You Need to Know About
• The Rise of Experience Tourism and What It Means for the Leisure Industry

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• Open access
• Published: 05 July 2024

Assessing the reactions of tourist markets to reinstated travel restrictions in the destination during the post-COVID-19 phase

• Xuankai Ma 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 ,
• Rongxi Ma 2 , 4 ,
• Zijing Ma 5 ,
• Jingzhe Wang 6 ,
• Zhaoping Yang 3 , 4 ,
• Cuirong Wang 2 , 4 &
• Fang Han 2 , 4  

Scientific Reports volume  14 , Article number:  15495 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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Metrics details

• Socioeconomic scenarios
• Sustainability

This study, leveraging search engine data, investigates the dynamics of China's domestic tourism markets in response to the August 2022 epidemic outbreak in Xinjiang. It focuses on understanding the reaction mechanisms of tourist-origin markets during destination crises in the post-pandemic phase. Notably, the research identifies a continuous rise in the potential tourism demand from tourist origin cities, despite the challenges posed by the epidemic. Further analysis uncovers a regional disparity in the growth of tourism demand, primarily influenced by the economic stratification of origin markets. Additionally, the study examines key tourism attractions such as Duku Road, highlighting its resilient competitive system, which consists of distinctive tourism experiences, economically robust tourist origins, diverse tourist markets, and spatial pattern stability driven by economic factors in source cities, illustrating an adaptive response to external challenges such as crises. The findings provide new insights into the dynamics of tourism demand, offering a foundation for developing strategies to bolster destination resilience and competitiveness in times of health crises.

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Introduction.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous and long-lasting social and economic impact on the tourism industry 1 . International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) plummeted by 73% in 2020 due to a global embargo, widespread travel restrictions, and a massive drop in demand. Compared to 2019, there were approximately 1 billion fewer international visitors that year 2 . The year 2021 is considered by scholars as the Year of Recovery for tourism, with tourism indicators signaling recovery 3 , 4 . The climate crisis and the European return to war are expected to restrict international travel 5 , and the domestic market will be an appropriate approach to drive tourism recovery 6 . The expansion of domestic tourism is propelled by a considerable accumulation of suppressed demand, a rising preference for domestic locales, and stringent border entry and exit controls.

Nevertheless, the mutation of the Omicron virus resulting in greater contagiousness will lead to localized areas being re-closed to counter the diffusion of the Virus 7 . It is an additional shock to the recovering tourist destinations. The investigation of the response of origin markets to the reclosure of destinations during the tourism recovery period is of significant relevance for regional authorities to assess the impact of the outbreak and the maintenance of tourist origins.

This paper aims to investigate what changes occur in origin market demand for destinations affected by reclosure during the tourism recovery period, what spatial differences such changes show, and how the differences in response exhibited by origin markets arise. The response in tourism demand is quantified through the analysis of annual growth rates in the domestic market during periods of reclosure. Based on tourism demand theory, demographic, economic, and environmental conditions, COVID-19 epidemic status, healthcare conditions, Internet access coverage, and traffic activation will be potential influential factors to account for the variation in origins market response. We add new insights to the COVID-19 study of short-term effects and spatial differences in tourism demand by examining the pattern of origins market response in the face of destination reclosure from the tourist origins' perspective (cities).

Literature review

The covid-19 and the tourism industry.

The dramatic impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry has intensified the involvement of scholars in studies on the issue. In the initial phase of the pandemic (2020), UNWTO reported international tourist arrivals to decline by 70–75% for 2020. Academics have addressed the effects of the pandemic on national tourism markets 8 , 9 , the response of the tourism industry to the crisis 10 , 11 , and the framework for sustainable development 12 , 13 , 14 . Greece, with its developed tourism industry, the loss of tourism revenue due to the pandemic has directly contributed to the overall economic decline of the country 15 . The pandemic has declined tourist arrivals and affected employment and productivity in the Balearic Islands, revealing the region’s decline 1 . Hotel revenues in Italy fell by 66% relative to Turkey due to the embargo policies 16 . The U.S. hotel industry lost about $30 billion in revenue in the spring of 2020 17 , while the restaurant industry also faced a notable crackdown 18 . The multidimensional assessments of the influence of the pandemic on tourism demand were performed by comparing this crisis with the normal state of affairs before the crisis, which pointed to a significant negative consequence of tourism with its sibling sectors along the entire tourism industrial chain 19 . Restoring tourist arrivals to pre-crisis standards will probably confront prolonged pain 20 .

Some improvement in the epidemic accompanies the crisis response and recovery period (after 2021). Regardless, the pace of recovery continues to be sluggish and uneven in all regions of the world due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates, and traveler confidence. Dynamic adjustment of travel restrictions within the country during the post-pandemic period could stimulate a recovery to a limited extent and allow domestic tourism to dominate 21 , 22 . Empirical studies show that regions with monoculture industries have no buffers to adapt to the crisis in the face of shocks that significantly reduce tourism demand 23 , 24 . In contrast, regions with prosperous industries and strong tourism specialization will be highly resilient to disruptions in the context of less restrictive movement of people, presenting a competitive advantage with a slight decline in demand 25 , 26 . Scholars believe this is the best time to promote equitable and sustainable tourism development, and the disconnect between tourist demand and destination development (growth expansion) needs to be repaired 27 , 28 . The construction of tourism sustainability will focus more on the changing needs of tourists themselves and their demand preferences. In the future, regulating the balanced development of regional tourism by changing tourists’ needs is the focus of tourism sustainability in the post-epidemic era 29 , 30 .

Measures of tourism recovery

In the tourism literature, scholars have proposed and implemented the concept of tourism resilience to quantify post-crisis tourism outcomes, particularly the ability and magnitude of regional tourism to recover from the COVID-19 disruptions 31 . Metrics such as employment rates, tourist arrival rates, and tourism revenues are measures to assess regions’ tourism resilience within geographically large areas 32 , 33 , 34 . It is noteworthy that the recoverability of tourism in different regions varies by geographic area and thus shows distinct patterns of recovery. Thus, the spatial heterogeneity of tourism recovery must be considered 35 . Scholars have argued that location quotients 36 , the share of an industry in the local total divided by the share of the industry in the national total, can better account for the speed of tourism recovery from that region’s crisis 37 .

Tourism demand change observation

In the era of Big Data, the utilization of search engines by tourists to acquire travel-related information ahead of their trips has become the initial step in travel planning 38 . The significance of search engine data in characterizing and predicting tourism demand has been gradually acknowledged by tourism researchers since 2010 and has been incorporated into various models for analytical work 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 . Due to the search behavior of tourists based on their destinations of interest, these electronic behavior records are normalized into search engine indexes to indicate tourism demand, preferences, travel intentions, and the location of the tourists’ origin 43 . Researchers have conducted studies on tourism demand response to pandemics and tourism recovery rates with search engine data, confirming the significant advantages of search engine data in fitting economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic 22 , 44 , 45 . Therefore, we attempted to characterize the rate of change in tourism demand in the origins market by investigating search engine data for a specific period (destination reclosure) as search engine data gives high-frequency information on the travel intentions of Internet users in different regions for a defined destination.

Overview summary

In the post-epidemic era of tourism recovery, a sub-black swan event of local reclosure is inevitable. We are interested in how origin markets will respond to destination reclosure, the characteristics of the spatial response patterns, and the reasons for this heterogeneity that need to be urgently explored. While the literature has usefully explored the recovery of tourism with mature domestic markets, it is crucial to focus on the changes in tourism demand for destinations at the national level, where the origin markets are the roots of tourism demand. To address the limitations of previous research, this paper contributes to the tourism literature by using a search engine to quantify short-term tourism changes during tourism crises and constructing models of tourism demand changes in different regions to explore the drivers of different response patterns.

Materials and methodologies

Tourism demand data.

Search engine data is identified as an efficacious data source for measuring high-frequency tourism demand. Google Trends has extensive applications worldwide, whereas Baidu has a more indicative role in China. The Baidu search engine has two data products: Keyword Search Index and Brand Index ( https://index.baidu.com ). The Keyword Search Index contains data from 2011 till now, and the Brand Index is a more professional industry-based index that will be available from August 2021. This paper utilizes daily keyword indices from 2011 to 2022 to investigate the background of tourism demand for the Duku Road and brand indexes from August 10 to October 31 in 2021 and 2022 to measure changes in tourism demand for the Duku Road from different origins regions during the destination closure period under the impact of the pandemic.

where i is a tourist origin city; j is a date from August 10 to October 31; BBI is the Baidu Brand Index of a city search for Duku Road on a date. s is a spatial series of origin cities or an individual city; t is a temporal series of dates; T.D. is the sum of demand from s during t .

The Chinese domestic tourism market was chosen as the study case due to the robust intervention policies adopted by China during the first pandemic, dramatically impacting international and domestic tourism in China. In the post-epidemic era, a multitude of countries have eased international travel restrictions. The massive mobility of individuals within China and the mutation of the Virus made travel policies contingent on the consequences of the containment of the pandemic. In this context, domestic tourism demand has emerged a robust recovery. This phenomenon is also prevalent in other countries, and scholars are confident that domestic tourism will be the recovery engine in the short term. It is a matter of significant concern that tourist arrivals may abruptly decline to zero in instances where destinations are compelled to shut down anew amidst a pandemic resurgence. Notwithstanding, it is pertinent to note that latent tourism demand persists. In response, this study meticulously tracks variations in demand at these destinations and corresponding responses from origin markets, employing high-frequency search engine data as a quantitative metric of demand. Distinct from conventional statistical methods, the monitoring of such rapid changes necessitates the utilization of big data analytics.

Xinjiang was one of the most popular destinations for domestic tourism in 2022, with millions of tourists entering Xinjiang by self-drive, high-speed rail, and air. The Duku Road (high-rank landscape driveway) is the most attractive destination for tourists, with 28.35% of tourism demand in Xinjiang. It serves as a tourist hub, radiating tourists to other attractions 46 . Tourism prosperity has made Xinjiang an unignorable destination during domestic tourism recovery. Nevertheless, the massive tourist flows have planted the potential for the spread of the epidemic. The entire territory of Xinjiang entered a region-wide silent management to control the epidemic on August 10 and will remain in effect through the winter. During this period, all travel activities had to be ceased, and the government organized the transfer of healthy travelers back to their origins. This unexpected outbreak has had a fatal impact on Xinjiang’s thriving tourism industry. The study case has typical implications. This paper investigates the origins market’s response to the destination’s reclosure, considering the Duku Road as the destination and cities outside Xinjiang as the domestic origin markets.

Three hundred and seven cities of China’s domestic tourism market were adopted as the tourist origins for the case study. The Duku Road, located in Xinjiang, served as the destination (Fig.  1 a). The Duku Road is a mysterious and fascinating landscaped driveway that stretches through the north and south of the Tianshan Mountains, a World Natural Heritage Site, which is also known as the Tianshan Road. The Duku Road runs with a unique topography, with numerous sharp curves and steep slopes, more than 280 km of road sections above 2000 m above sea level, 1/3 of the whole course is a cliff, 1/5 of the lot is in the high mountain permafrost, crossing nearly ten major rivers in the Tianshan Mountains, and over four ice-pass of mountains that accumulate snow all year round (Fig.  1 b). Driving on Duku Road, travelers experience the seasonal transformations in a single day, which shows the magnificent scenery of “four seasons in one day, ten miles in different skies” to off-road enthusiasts and self-driving tourists.

The study case. ( a ) The domestic tourist markets of Duku Road. ( b ) The location of Duku Road, Xinjiang, China. Notes: The map in ( a ) was produced using ESRI ArcMap 10.2, and the standard map service was provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources of China, accessible at http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/ with Grant No. GS (2021) 5448. The photographs in ( b ) were taken by the first author for tourism resources investigation in September 2021.

Dependent variables

The literature has proposed numerous valid measures of change in tourism demand, and scholars have characterized tourism resilience based on micro-level expenditure elasticities and annual percentage changes between the pre-and post-pandemic periods 6 , 25 . This paper pays attention to measuring the instantaneous response of origin markets to the public health crisis in a destination that caused the closure period (August 10–October 31), where typically, growth rates are employed to capture the difference in performance relative to a benchmark 26 , 47 . Thus, tourism demand in 2021 is considered the initial period of the post-pandemic recovery period, and the growth rate for the corresponding period in 2022 versus the benchmark period is adopted as a measure of Tourism Demand Growth Rates (TDGR). The demand ratio is chosen indicator of short-term resilience 48 , and we generate the Tourism Demand Ratio (TDR) as the alternative dependent variable to test the robustness of conclusions. To illustrate the distribution of these dependent variables, Fig.  2 presents a histogram, kernel function density estimation plot, and maximum likelihood Gaussian distribution fit, providing a comprehensive view of the underlying data structure and the variability in Tourism Demand Growth Rates (TDGR) and Tourism Demand Ratio (TDR).

where i is a tourist origin city; t' is the current year (2022), and t is the control year (2021); TDGR i is the tourism demand variation of the city i; \({TD}_{i}^{t}\) is the sum of demand from city i in year t .

Statistical distribution analysis of TD, TDGR, and TDR variables. Notes: TD. is the Baidu brand index during the closure period, metric tourism demand, and the number in parentheses is the year; TDGR is the growth rates of tourism demand, and TDR is 2022 vs. 2021 ratio of tourism demand. The values of the above variables are processed by f = ln(x).

Determinants and proxy variables

The willingness of tourists to explore a destination depends on the determinants of the origin’s financial capacity, physical constraints, and psychological tendencies, in addition to the destination’s attractiveness. Furthermore, challenged by pandemic restrictions on mobility, we considered the origin markets’ epidemic circumstances and medical availability. We have selected the population, economics, environmental conditions, COVID-19, medical healthcare, Internet accessibility, and traffic activeness of the origin cities as potential determinants of tourism demand to analyze their impact on tourism demand changes, as detailed in Table 1 43 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 .

China has a substantial tourism market with spatially non-stationary development levels of cities in each region, and origins cities have significant spatial stratification heterogeneity. Accordingly, following large administrative geographical regions, we disaggregate the origin markets into East China, South China, Southwest China, North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China. The statistical data of each city are obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics ( http://www.stats.gov.cn/ ), and the epidemic data sources of COVID-19 are informed by the National Health and Health Commission and the provincial health and health commissions ( https://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/ ). The advantages of this paper’s dataset are that it measures the seven explanatory variables mentioned above through twenty-five proxy variables, which captures the diversity of factors driving the tourism demand changes. Additionally, all the proxy variables will be standardized within large administrative geographical regions (Fig.  3 ), which helps to reveal significant differences in the explanatory variables performing distinct roles in different local regions.

Proxy variable box plots group by regions. Notes: The labels of the X-axis, East China, South China, Southwest China, North China, Central China, Northeast China, and Northwest China are abbreviated as N.C., NEC, E.C., CC, SC, and NWC, respectively. The Y-axis labels are abbreviations for the proxy variables in Table 1 .

Research framework

The research framework, as illustrated in Fig.  4 , consists of three stages: temporal and spatial change analysis of tourism demand, exploratory regression analysis, and model evaluation.

The research framework. Notes: TD-Tourism Demand; TDGR-Tourism Demand Growth Rates; LISA- Local Indicators of Spatial Association; EC, SC, NC, CC, SWC are the models in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Central China, and Southwest China) respectively.

The first stage involves depicting the spatial pattern of the Duku Road tourist origin markets and its changing process in the temporal dimension. The Global Spatial Autocorrelation method is applied to assess the spatial patterns of the origin markets, the Getis-Ord Gi* Hotspot Analysis method 54 detects the dominant origin market clusters, and the Local Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis method 55 is assigned to reveal clusters and outliers areas of tourism demand variation. The spatial distribution characteristics will map out the origin markets and pinpoint the dominant origin regions.

In the second stage, this paper uses an exploratory knowledge discovery strategy, i.e., finding the most significant drivers of each region among the many proxy variables that may impact tourism demand changes. Candidate proxies that are significantly correlated are initially filtered out from the Correlation Analysis between the proxies and explanatory variables. Then the candidate proxies are imported into a multi-round Linear Regression Analysis for iterative modeling and comparisons, thereby investigating the factors influencing the tourism demand variation in each region. Since the proxy variables in this paper are not entirely customarily distributed, Spearman’s Correlation Analysis 56 has the advantage of handling mixed data. The proxy variables with correlation coefficients greater than 0.3 and a significance over 95% will be considered candidate proxy variables. The Stepwise Regression Analysis 57 can perform multiple turns of regression analysis on candidate proxy variables and automatically remove the insignificant variables, resulting in the exploration of the model with the optimal performance with significance.

The third stage is the diagnostic evaluation and robustness testing of the model. Multiple linear regression, autocorrelation, normality of residuals, and eteroscedasticity are used to diagnose the model’s performances 57 . We compare the conclusions obtained from Stepwise Regression Analysis with the results obtained by substituting the dependent variable to evaluate the validity of the conclusions. The above experiments will be replicated with the ratio of tourism demand during the destination closure in 2022 to the corresponding period in 2021 as the dependent variable, and the conclusions will be considered dependable and robust in case of substantial consistency.

Spatial and temporal changes in origin markets demand

The paper utilizes the Baidu search engine to garner search records of the Duku Road in China over the past decade (Fig.  5 a). Results indicate a rapid surge in the attraction of the Duku Road since 2015, peaking in 2019. Despite the impact of COVID-19 in 2020, the demand for tourism quickly rebounded, hitting a new high in 2022. It is imperative to note that due to safety risks associated with the Duku Road, it is only accessible to tourists from May to October every year. During this period, the tourism demand for Duku Road exhibits a primary and secondary peak, with a critical point at the main peak, dividing this phase into a rising and a declining period. Specifically, the rising period commences in early May, peaking towards the end of July, followed by a continual decline. However, a second surge forms during the National Day Golden Tourism Week, which subsequently dwindles gradually.

Variation of Baidu index for Duku Road (2011–2022). ( a ) The daily Baidu Index trend for Duku Road (2011–2022). ( b ) The Baidu Index during the years of unrestricted access for The Duku Road (2011–2022).

Considering a sudden outbreak of COVID-19 across Xinjiang, local authorities initiated a silent management policy, imposing traffic restrictions from August 10 to October 31. According to historical time series characteristics of the Duku Road, this time point coincides closely with the critical date when the tourism demand transitions from a peak to a decline. A comparison of the keyword index during the rising and declining periods of each year reveals that the tourism demand maintained a high level before the travel restrictions, while the destination closure significantly impacted the tourism demand, causing a sharp decline (Fig.  5 b).

Although post August 10, 2022, marked the declining phase of tourism demand for the Duku Road, the Baidu index for the keyword “Duku Road” remained high (only a 5% decrease compared to the same period in 2021) before August 10, 2022. This suggests a stable tourism demand for the Duku Road prior to the pandemic closure. However, post August 10, the Baidu index plummeted by 43% compared to the same period in 2021, inferring a direct impact on the tourism demand for the Duku Road due to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Xinjiang and the traffic control measures. Noteworthy is that despite the inability to conduct any tourism activities in Xinjiang post August 10, the source market maintained a robust potential tourism demand for the Duku Road from August 10 to October 31. During the COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown in Xinjiang, the tourism demand from seven administrative regions in China for the Duku Road grew by an average of 31.49% compared to 2021, indicating a strong resilience in the tourism demand for the Duku Road. This reflects that despite the restrictions imposed by the pandemic and traffic control policies, the restrained tourism demand will gradually be released once the situation is under control, highlighting a significant potential for recovery.

Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis results (Table 2 ), the tourism demand from the source market demonstrates a significant spatial clustering pattern, with the spatial pattern of the Duku Road’s source market transitioning from a low level to a moderate level of spatial clustering. The spatial distribution of tourism demand from source cities to the Duku Road has been impacted by the pandemic crisis, exhibiting a trend of contraction and clustering towards core source cities.

Viewed from the perspective of source cities, this section utilizes the Jenks Natural Breaks method to categorize source cities into five groups based on the intensity of tourism demand towards Duku Road and constructs a spatial distribution map of tourism demand from the source market. The map employs a color gradient from blue to red to represent the intensity of tourism demand from source cities to the Duku Road, where red and orange cities signify core and secondary source cities, respectively. The domestic source market is primarily distributed in the developed cities in eastern China. In Fig.  6 a,b, cities like Beijing and Shanghai are identified as core source cities, while Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou are recognized as secondary source cities. A comparison between Fig.  6 a,b reveals that cities like Lanzhou, Xi’an, and Nanjing no longer serve as secondary source locations, indicating that some secondary source cities are more sensitive to the tourism demand for Duku Road under Xinjiang pandemic crisis than others, which exhibiting a variability within the secondary source market.

The spatial patterns of tourism demand and its' variation. Notes: Hu Huanyong Line in ( e ) is a comparison divider proposed by Chinese geographer Hu Huanyong (1901–1998) in 1935 to delineate the population density of China, which has significant heterogeneity in the population, society, and economy between the east and west of the line.

Upon further hotspot analysis of the source market, the results exhibit significant statistical clustering in the spatial domain for the Duku Road’s source market. As depicted in Fig.  6 c,d, the red zones represent the hotspots of tourism demand, encompassing the Jing-Jin-Ji region, Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta, which emerge as the most crucial source markets with lesser impact from the pandemic crisis on Duku Road. On the other side, the blue zones signify the cold spots of tourism demand, where cities within these regions exhibit an exceedingly low tourism demand towards the Duku Road. A comparative inspection of Fig.  6 c,d unveils a shift in some cold spot areas (for instance, the disappearance of the cold spot on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the emergence of a new cold spot area north of the Hexi Corridor), while the stability of cold spot regions in Northeast China remains high (such as Hulunbuir and Daxing’anling area).

This section analyzes the growth rate of tourism demand, designating cities with growth rates below zero with a gradient of cool colors (blue), and those with growth rates above zero with a gradient of warm colors (red), with intervals of (±) 20%. As shown in Fig.  6 e, cities with a growth rate exceeding 100% are rendered in deep red. There is a significant positive correlation in the spatial distribution of tourism demand growth rates, indicating neighboring cities share a consistent response pattern to the pandemic. A distinct contrast is formed on either side of the Hu Huanyong Line; source markets to the east primarily exhibit positive growth rates, while those in the western regions display negative growth rates. Analysis of local clustering and outliers reveals the formation of three distinct local clusters in the spatial distribution of tourism demand growth rates (Fig.  6 f). Cities near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Hexi Corridor in Northwestern China respond strongly to the pandemic crisis, with rapid declines in tourism demand towards Duku Road in this area (L–L). A sporadic distribution of outlier cities (H–L) emerges on the eastern side of Northwestern China, exhibiting superior risk resilience and higher tourism demand compared to other local areas. In Southwest China, Yunnan province has higher demand growth, with Pu’er and Lijiang being typical tourist cities. The fluctuations in their demand are impacted by their respective tourism industries, exhibiting a phenomenon where they are encircled by proximate cities experiencing high demand growth rates (L–H).

By dividing the source market according to administrative regions, summing up the tourism demand from cities within each administrative region to Duku Road, and averaging the growth rate of tourism demand, regional differences are identified. As shown in Fig.  7 , a comparison of tourism demand scale and growth between 2021 and 2022 across administrative regions is made. Using the Jenks Natural Breaks method, they are categorized into high, medium, and low levels. This corresponds to East China being the primary source market for Duku Road, while North, Central, South, Southwest China are secondary source markets, and Northeast and Northwest China are potential source markets. Northeast and South China have the highest growth rates in tourism demand, followed by North, Central, and East China, with Southwest and Northwest China having the lowest. There is minimal variation in the scale of tourism demand from cities within each region to Duku Road, but a larger difference in the growth rates of tourism demand.

The maps with box plots of the tourism demand and growth rates.

Correlation analysis for TDGR

The correlation between explanatory variables and the growth rate of tourism demand significantly varies across different regions, suggesting that a more nuanced analysis could be obtained by partitioning the source market for modeling. In the South China region, 64% of the explanatory variables are negatively correlated with the growth rate of tourism demand, while in the Northwest region, no explanatory variables exhibit significant correlation. In the Northeast region, only two explanatory variables are negatively correlated with the tourism demand growth rate. In East China, Southwest, North China, and Central China, about one-third of the explanatory variables show a correlation with tourism demand growth rate at a significance level better than 0.05.

The correlation results indicate that under the “dynamic zeroing” policy control, new cases in source areas do not correlate with the potential tourism demand growth rate of residents. For instance, the numbers of newly confirmed and asymptomatic cases only show a negative correlation with the tourism demand growth rate in the South and Southwest regions of China. The relationship between the number of COVID-19 recovered patients and the tourism demand growth rate differs between the southern and northern regions, showing a weak positive correlation in the Southwest region and a weak negative correlation in the North China region. Notably, a significant moderate negative correlation exists between public medical resources of local source cities and the tourism demand growth rate. In the post-pandemic era, factors related to tourism demand growth rate are constantly changing, and the relationship between influential factors and tourism demand growth rate shows spatial non-stationarity across different regions.

Significant explanatory variables in the East China region include per capita disposable income, average wages, consumer price index, savings deposits, the number of people covered by basic medical insurance, and highway passenger traffic. In South China, the variables include the resident population, per capita GDP, per capita disposable income, per capita consumer spending, savings deposits, PM2.5 concentration, AQI index, newly confirmed cases, newly confirmed asymptomatic cases, the number of hospitals, hospital bed count, basic medical insurance coverage, mobile phone user count, broadband access user count, private car ownership, and civil aviation passenger traffic. In Southwest, the variables include per capita GDP, infection count, newly confirmed cases, newly confirmed asymptomatic cases, recoveries, private car ownership, highway passenger traffic, and spatial distance. In North China, significant variables include savings deposits, industrial solid waste utilization rate, recoveries, mobile phone user count, broadband access user count, and private car ownership. In Central China, the variables include per capita GDP, savings deposits, AQI index, hospital bed count, basic medical insurance coverage, mobile phone user count, broadband access user count, private car ownership, and spatial distance. In Northeast, the significant variables are average wages and savings deposits. In Northwest, no significant explanatory variables have statistically meaningful correlation with tourism demand growth rate.

Stepwise regressions

Diverging from studies that directly engage in regression analysis with correlation tests 6 , this chapter adopts a stepwise regression modeling approach. It sequentially incorporates significant explanatory variables from Table 3 (highlighted in bold) for each region into the model to explore influential factors under optimal fitting circumstances. However, the results of stepwise regression analysis reveal that in the Northeast and Northwest regions (Table 4 ), due to a limited number of significant explanatory variables and a lack of significant linear relationships between these variables and the dependent variable, no effective models are obtained. In other regions, there is a noticeable disparity between influential factors and model fit.

In East China, average wages are the sole factor affecting the growth rate of tourism demand, albeit with weak explanatory power (R 2  = 0.08). In South China, the AQI index exerts a negative impact on the tourism demand growth rate, contributing to 17.9% of the variance explanation. In North China, the growth rate of tourism demand is negatively affected by the industrial solid waste utilization rate, with an explanatory power of 17.8%. In Central China, per capita GDP is a significant factor negatively impacting the tourism demand growth rate. In the Southwest region, the tourism demand growth rate is influenced by multiple factors, where spatial distance has a positive impact, and per capita GDP has a significant negative impact. Combined, they account for 42% of the explanatory power concerning the growth rate of tourism demand.

In summation, the growth rate of tourism demand in source markets chiefly hinges on local economic, environmental, and transportation factors. Although there is a significant weak correlation between the local pandemic situation and the tourism demand growth rate in certain areas, it fails to exert a statistically significant impact on the local tourism demand towards the Duku Road.

The efficacy of the models has been corroborated by the diagnostic items and parameters delineated in Table 5 . The results indicate that the models passed the F-test (p < 0.05), implying that the independent variables in each model significantly affect the dependent variable TDGR, denoting the models are meaningful. With a limited number of dependent variables in the models, the VIF (Variance Inflation Factor) values are well below 5, suggesting that there is no multicollinearity issue, and the models are well-constructed.

In the autocorrelation test of the models, the D-W (Durbin-Watson) value of the model for the South China region deviates significantly from 2 (1.508 < 1.7), indicating that the significance testing and goodness of fit for this model would be unreliable; hence, this model failed the validation, while the other models are deemed credible. Moreover, this section re-models using TDR from Sect. 7.2.2 as an alternative dependent variable following the framework procedure. The results of the new model are consistent with the conclusions previously obtained, eventually leading to linear regression models for the tourism demand growth rate in four regions.

Factors affecting TDGR

The response to the changes in tourism demand for the Duku Road during the pandemic period is manifested through the tourism demand growth rate of the source cities. The results of the regional model construction discussed earlier (see section " Stepwise regressions ") indicate that the factors affecting the growth of tourism demand for the Duku Road vary significantly across different regions. As shown in Fig.  8 , on a national scale, the models for the North China, Central China, East China, and Southwest regions have all passed the significance test and robustness test. Each model corresponds to a subplot, with the title of the subplot being the model formula for the respective region, and the content of the subplot displaying the spatial distribution of the tourism demand growth rate and explanatory variables. All indicators are divided into five intervals using the Jenks Natural Breaks classification method, with colors from blue to red representing intervals from low to high.

The influential factors models of response heterogeneity of tourist origin markets to Duku Road.

Upon comparing the similarities and differences across regional models, it is found that during the pandemic period in Xinjiang, the primary factors influencing the response differences to destination lockdowns in the domestic source markets for the Duku Road include Per Capita GDP, average wages, industrial solid waste utilization rate, and spatial distance. Economic factors have a counteractive effect on the tourism demand growth of the source cities, an impact widely present in East China, Central China, and Southwest regions, exhibiting robust spatial consistency. Notably, environmental factors indicate that the growth of tourism demand is constrained by the industrial solid waste utilization rate, a significant relationship found only in North China. This section observes that in industrially prosperous areas within this region (Hebei-Tianjin), the growth of tourism demand is limited, or even decreased, whereas in remote areas with lower industrial levels (Inner Mongolia), the tourism demand is not high, but generally has a high rate of growth. The significant positive impact produced by the distance factor in the Southwest region can be attributed to the distinct differences between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan-Chongqing-Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau; the former has low levels of tourism demand and growth rate, while the latter has relatively higher tourism demand and growth rate, thereby leading to a higher tourism demand growth response in source cities farther from the Duku Road.

Factors influencing tourism demand towards Duku road

Understanding the factors influencing the tourism demand from source cities to Duku Road is crucial for grasping the heterogeneity in tourism demand growth rates. This section employs a loop iteration approach to individually examine the linear fit between twenty-five explanatory variables of source cities within seven administrative regions, and the tourism demand scale of these cities towards Duku Road, to investigate the factors affecting the tourism demand scale of source cities to Duku Road. From a total of 175 linear models, eight models were identified as statistically significant and demonstrating a superior degree of fit ultimately. These models, with a significance level exceeding 0.01 and an R 2 value greater than 0.8, effectively explain the scale of tourism demand across more than four administrative regions.

As illustrated in Table 6 , different variables significantly positively impact the demand for tourism to the Duku Road across various regions. The rise in the number of broadband and mobile phone users suggests more individuals have mobile communication capabilities, enhancing the accessibility to information regarding Duku Road. This improved digital outreach fosters the online visibility and awareness of the destination, consequently boosting the local residents’ desire to travel there. Savings deposits reflect the economic capacity of individuals or families in the source cities, laying the foundation for affording travel to Duku Road. A higher per capita Gross Domestic Product indicates a relatively higher income level and consumer spending capacity, enabling more discretionary income for long-distance travel expenditures. The economic stature of the source cities implies a higher preference for tourism and a more open cultural backdrop, collectively fostering an increased interest and demand for traveling to Duku Road. An augmentation in the number of individuals covered by basic medical insurance and the quantity of hospital beds signifies enhanced medical security for more residents. Better medical services and emergency response capabilities help mitigate the impact of local epidemics on residents’ travel activities. Simultaneously, it alleviates tourists’ concerns about the travel risks and uncertainties associated with the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, bolstering their confidence in traveling to Duku Road. Higher air passenger traffic denotes more flight connections between the residents and the destination, supporting the accessibility for inland tourists to Duku Road. Elevated private car ownership in source cities inclines residents towards choosing self-driving tours to Duku Road, offering greater flexibility, freedom, comfort, and convenience. This mode of travel satisfies tourists’ desire to explore the scenic routes of Duku Road and indulge in personalized experiences.

In summary, determinants such as the extent of internet coverage, economic conditions, medical security, and transportation facilities in the source markets influence the residents’ demand for tourism to the Duku Road in various aspects. The extent of internet coverage lays the foundation for environmental awareness of the Duku Road among residents of the source cities; whereas economic conditions are essential for residents to travel to the Duku Road. Amid an ongoing pandemic, medical security in the source cities can mitigate the adverse effects of the local epidemic on residents’ travel behaviors; transportation conditions provide diversified accessibility for the residents of the source cities. In the source markets of the Duku Road, areas with a large scale of mobile phone users, high residents’ savings, comprehensive medical insurance coverage, and developed passenger aviation contribute the most to the tourism demand to the Duku Road. This conclusion aligns with the spatial pattern of tourism demand discussed in section " Spatial and temporal changes in origin markets demand ". As illustrated in Fig.  9 , box plots of the number of mobile phone users (IA1), savings deposits (E6), the number of individuals covered by basic medical insurance (H3), and the volume of civil aviation passengers (TA3) demonstrate that the Eastern China region ranks highest in these four indicators nationwide, and concurrently, it has the highest demand for tourism to the Duku Road. Furthermore, summarizing the determinants in Table 6 and arranging them in descending order based on the average R 2 reveals that the economic conditions > transportation accessibility > medical conditions > extent of internet coverage, indicating that economic conditions are the most crucial determinant affecting the scale and spatial pattern of tourism demand in the source markets.

Tourism origins market maps corresponding with boxplots of variables in regions.

The competitive resilience of core tourist attractions

The study unveils a nuanced understanding of tourism demand dynamics, particularly illuminating the interplay between spatial structures of source markets and economic factors amidst unprecedented health crises such as COVID-19. Even during the crisis, the potential demand from tourist origin markets for a leading tourist attraction continues to be remarkably high and will have considerable potential to counteract the crisis in the post-pandemic era 11 . By delving into the spatial patterns and demand determinants for Duku Road in Xinjiang during the epidemic silent management period, the study extrapolates the driving forces behind the resilience and demand sustenance of core tourism attractions.

Firstly, the notable positive spatial autocorrelation within Duku Road’s source markets elucidates a significant conceptual insight: geographically proximate source cities harbor similar tourism demands. The absence of a Matthew Effect, and the ensuing market dispersion and diversity, underscores Duku Road’s ability to allure visitors from a broad geographic spectrum, thereby diluting over-reliance on singular markets. This diversification not only embodies adaptive capacity to navigate tourism adversities but also buffers the blow from crises by enabling a continuum of demand from unaffected markets. The relative unscathed potential tourism demand during the epidemic crisis manifests the merits of such market diversification.

Secondly, the decisive role of economic factors extends beyond merely shaping the tourism demand from tourist markets towards Duku Road; it critically impacts the spatial configuration of its source markets 58 . The stratified heterogeneity in crisis response, with economically robust core source cities demonstrating stability versus the sensitivity of secondary source cities with moderate economic levels, unveils an inherent inertia in the spatial structure steered by economic dynamics. This is a salient contribution to understanding the spatial-economic nexus in tourism demand studies.

Lastly, the regional variance captured through sectional models divulges that core source cities with high economic indicators face a saturation effect in tourism demand scale for Duku Road, contrasting with potential source cities that possess a larger scope for escalating tourism demand growth rates. It also identifies regional differences in the factors influencing tourism demand variations 19 , 59 , 60 . This saturation effect, negatively impacting tourism demand growth rates, accentuates the regional disparities in factors influencing tourism demand variations. The knowledge will help to provide insights into the influential factors driving tourism demand variations in distinct regions 59 .

In synthesis, the resilience of core tourism attractions within a region is constructed on a quadrate foundation: the uniqueness of tourism experience, market dispersion, heterogeneity in crisis response, and spatial structural stability induced by economic factors in source cities. Post-crisis, core attractions sustain a substantial scale of potential tourism demand, with economic factors significantly steering the tourism demand scale, leading to a spatial structural inertia towards core cities. The marked discrepancies in response patterns among source cities, tied to the saturation effects on local economic factors, spotlight the imperative of diversifying source market risks to accrue potential tourism demand, thereby accelerating recovery and sustaining competitive edge post-crisis.

These insights are seminal for policymakers and industry stakeholders to craft efficacious strategies for mitigating crises impacts, fostering tourism recovery, and bolstering resilience. The discourse propels a deeper comprehension of the factors instigating regional variances in tourism demand, furnishing a robust theoretical scaffold for future empirical explorations in the realm of tourism demand studies amidst crises. This narrative, therefore, extends a substantial theoretical contribution towards understanding the ramifications of COVID-19 on tourism demand, while amplifying the criticality of domestic demand in substituting the downturn in international tourism, thereby laying a robust groundwork for successful post-crisis recovery and long-term resilience in regional tourism sectors.

Limitations and prospects

The limitation in dataset is that the dependent variable does not measure the actual visits, revenues, or employment in tourism in the destination area. Instead, it measures Internet searches for a particular attraction. As Internet interest is indeed correlated with actual trips, the possibility of inferring short-term variations in demand on the search alone is limited. Regarding our emphasis on core tourist attractions within a regional destination has inadvertently disregarded the vulnerabilities of a broader array of regional attractions. Forthcoming studies will encompass an evaluation of the comprehensive repercussions that tourism crises exert on the destination system, alongside an analysis of the source market’s reactions. Additionally, studies will classify tourist attractions by their level or type and will subsequently discuss the risk resilience and the mitigating strategies employed for each group of tourist attractions. An integrated and differentiated methodology such as this promises to yield a more systematic understanding, benefiting the strategic planning and operational decisions of tourism management entities.

In contemplating future research directions, several potential areas warrant further investigation. Initially, a novel comprehensive indicator should be generated for monitoring tourism demand by integrating search data, user-generated content on social media platforms, and statistical data. This integration would avoid the original error in sample coverage of the source market due to internet access disparities. Furthermore, expanding the research framework to encompass additional destinations and broader dimensional factors, and employing mixed-effect models to study the overall impact of these factors on tourism demand, would yield a more holistic understanding of tourism demand dynamics during crisis situations. Additionally, examining the economic downturn in the post-epidemic era, with a particular focus on the influence of decreased travel intentions following the lifting of travel restrictions and the subsequent general reopening, could offer crucial insights into the resilience of various destinations and origin markets. Lastly, an in-depth analysis of the long-term consequences of crisis events on tourism demand, as well as the recovery trajectories of destination and origin markets, would be instrumental in providing essential guidance for policymakers and industry planners aiming to mitigate the adverse effects of crises on the tourism sector.

Conclusions

This inquiry delved into the dynamics of potential tourism demand from China's domestic origin markets towards Duku Road in Xinjiang during the epidemic closure in August 2022. The exploration unfolded heterogeneous response patterns of tourism demand in the face of unexpected epidemic crises, particularly accentuating the post-epidemic era. The study homed in on the impact of demographic, economic, environmental, epidemic, medical, digital, and transportation facets on local tourism demand fluctuations within the origin markets, encompassing 308 cities. Utilizing spatial statistical and stepwise regression analyses, the investigation spotlighted spatial disparities in tourism demand variation rates across seven major regions.

A salient revelation is the altered response patterns of origin markets to epidemic crises at destinations, transcending the initial reactions during the 2019 onset of COVID-19. There is a notable uptick in tourism demand gravitating towards primary origins. While local epidemics and medical care in origins correlate with tourism demand variations, they do not forge a meaningful relationship. Economic determinants emerge as dominant negative influencers, with tangible regional disparities in factors affecting local tourism demand rates. Economically affluent regions surface as the core tourist origin markets, exhibiting resilience in tourism demand amidst destination tourism crises. Concurrently, core tourist-origin areas with high economic indicators appear to reach a saturation point, curtailing the growth rate of tourism demand. Conversely, potential tourist origin markets highlight significant variability with a pronounced growth potential, revealing a correlation with distance and an inverse relationship with industrial solid waste utilization rate.

Central to the findings above is the competitive resilience of core tourism attractions like Duku Road, demonstrated by its ability to maintain a stable tourism demand even amidst adversities such as the epidemic crisis. Firstly, the study demonstrates that core tourist attractions within destination systems can accumulate potential tourism demand during crises through their intrinsic appeal and diversified market structure. This accumulated demand provides substantial momentum for recovery, highlighting the importance of maintaining and enhancing the attractiveness of core tourism assets to sustain potential tourism demand. Secondly, core tourist attractions serve as both growth poles within destination systems and recovery nodes for tourism revival. The spatial differentiation and clustering of tourism demand driven predominantly by economic factors within origin markets contribute significantly to the risk resilience of core attractions. These factors suggest that economically robust regions can act as stable sources of tourism demand, reinforcing the importance of understanding and leveraging economic conditions in origin markets to enhance the resilience and competitive edge of core attractions.

The insights are pivotal for stakeholders aiming to design efficacious strategies to navigate through crises, promoting tourism recovery and resilience, thereby maintaining the competitive edge of core tourist attractions, and regional tourism sustainability by strategies as followed: (1) Destination management organizations should focus on diversifying their market structures to include a mix of economically strong and emerging markets to buffer against localized crises. (2) Continuous monitoring of economic indicators in origin markets can provide early warnings and strategic insights for tourism demand management, allowing for more resilient destination planning. (3) Policymakers should prioritize strategies that enhance the core attractiveness of key tourism assets while simultaneously fostering diversified and resilient origin markets to safeguard against potential crises.

Data availability

The raw datasets utilized in this study can be accessed through the Baidu search engine at https://index.baidu.com and the National Bureau of Statistics of China at http://www.stats.gov.cn/ . The processed datasets that were used and analyzed during this research are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the financial supports from the Xinjiang Major Science and Technology Projects (No. 2022A03002), the Xinjiang Social Science Foundation Projects (No. 2022VZJ028), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2023A1515011273), Basic Research Program of Shenzhen (20220811173316001), and Specific Innovation Program of the department of Education of Guangdong Province (2023KTSCX315).

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‘Tourists Go Home’: Barcelona’s Protests Against Overtourism

Dawit Habtemariam , Skift

July 8th, 2024 at 6:34 PM EDT

Barcelona, one of the world's most popular destinations, just got a rude awakening about how it manages tourism.

Dawit Habtemariam

Thousands of protestors marched in Barcelona over the weekend against overtourism.

Nearly 3,000 people took to the street on Saturday. More than 140 organizations, including neighborhood associations, ecologists and housing activists marched under the slogans, “Enough, let’s put limits on tourism” and “Tourists go home,” reported Catalan News .

Some protestors sprayed tourists sitting at restaurants with water guns.

Locals are protesting over the lack of affordable housing, which they blame on short-term rentals, and overcrowding caused by the cruise industry. In late June, the city announced it will ban all short-term rentals by 2029.

Barcelona’s Turbulent History with Tourism

Barcelona has had protests against tourism in the past.

“These are the same problems we had pre-Covid. They’re just coming back a little bit bigger than they were before because there’s more people traveling,” said Yves Marceau, vice president of product for G Adventures. He said a lot of tourism has spread beyond the city center.

@eliyasmusique habe mich als solidarischer guiri rein gewagt #politics #barcelona #catalunya #tourism #eattherich #anticapitalism #climatechange ♬ In Essence (Slowed) – Ka$tro

In 2022, the director general of Turisme de Barcelona was fired by the organization’s City and Tourism Council , which represents locals.

Barcelona is one of the most popular destinations in Europe right now. “It’s crowded. It’s a challenge to get anything, to get transportation, hotel, anything,” said Marceau.

G Adventures has reduced the number of days its tours spend in Barcelona to limit its contribution to overtourism. “We’ve been trying to limit the number of days we are in Barcelona as a group,” said Marceau.

Around 26 million tourists came to Barcelona in 2023, generating €12.75 billion ($13.8 billion) in spending, according to Turisme de Barcelona.

Protest Spread in Spain’s Popular Destinations

Barcelona is the latest destination in Spain to see a rise in protests against overtourism. Protests have erupted in the Canary Islands, Mallorca , Menorca and Malaga.

A major point of frustration for locals have been the growth in short-term rentals. In Malaga, the supply of short-term rentals rose 24% while demand rose 31%, according to AirDNA.

Destinations Clamp Down on Mass Tourism

This year, local politicians have enacted an array of policies like new taxes and cruise bans to discourage mass tourism.

• Venice put in place an entry fee on day trippers.
• Amsterdam plans to ban cruise stop s at its main terminal by 2035 and has blocked new hotel development .
• At Japan’s popular Mt. Fuji, local authorities recently implemented a daily visitor cap and charged a hikers a toll for entering the popular Yoshida Trail .
• Indonesia’s Bali now charges a “tourist levy” when they visit the island. In Iceland, the national government has reinstated its tourist tax .

Politicians have put these policies in place to preserve the quality of life of residents. Amsterdam Deputy Mayor Sofyan Mbarki told Skift an objective of his government has been to make Amsterdam “liveable” again for locals.

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Would a smaller population mean fewer local events in the future?

Editor's Note: This is the first of an occasional series looking at how the Somerset County region plans to prepare for a predicted 8,000 population drop by 2050.

A recent report from the Pennsylvania Tourism Office shows the tourism industry in the commonwealth generated $76.7 billion in economic impact, supported 486,871 jobs, contributed $4.7 billion in state and local taxes, and welcomed 192.4 million visitors in 2022, according to a press release issued March 13 by the state Department of Community and Economic Development.

A $7.5 billion increase in direct visitor spending will reach $45.4 billion – including hotels, restaurants, retailers and other tourism-related businesses. 

As one of the largest industries in Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro recognizes the key role tourism plays in the commonwealth’s economy, the release said. His 2024-25 budget called for a $15 million increase in funding for tourism. 

Projected population changes through the year 2050 released by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania , in partnership with the Pennsylvania State Data Center, show rural areas will face a 5.8% population decline. Somerset County, in particular, may lose more than 8,000 members of its population by 2050. 

The population study, explained: Report indicates Somerset County population will drop by 8,000 by 2050

How would this projected decrease in population affect entertainment and tourism in Somerset County? Can local organizations continue to keep all or some of these festivals and special events going, and how can the people in the county support these events? 

'Recreation is outdoors'

"In Somerset County, recreation is outdoors. Every festival is outdoors," said Ron Aldom, Somerset County Chamber of Commerce executive director. "The state parks started rising in visitors during COVID, and they never went down. The Great Allegheny Passage increased (its) number of visitors and that never went down. I've seen nothing that indicates a decline in visitation. I don't see ours going backward in growth. Hotel taxes are steady to increasing. The growth of Airbnbs in the county – I see that it's working. They are paying their hotel tax and we're seeing an increase in that." 

Aldom said because Somerset County's tourism is mostly outdoors, he feels the county is promoting not just recreation, but a quality of life. 

"Urban living is going through a metamorphosis that's not good. Crime is going up," he said. "COVID was a big help here. Work life changed. People live here and work elsewhere. I'm seeing it. Resort housing went nuts – although prices went up, too. People are searching for a quality of life. 

"The outdoors is a quality of life. People connect their kids to outdoor recreation, having them put down their phones, iPads, games and getting outside," Aldom said. "Mike Mumau, park manager at Laurel Hill State Park, said his number of visitors is going through the roof. He's seeing a steady growth." 

Enjoying the outdoors: Laurel Highlands nominated for Best Summer Travel Destination Award

County commissioners agree  

“We try to stem the tide of outmigration on many levels, but, combined with lower birth rates, population loss is having a growing impact on school enrollments, the number of people seeking public office, volunteerism and on resources available to support the public sector,” Somerset County Commissioner Pamela Tokar-Ickes said in an email.  

“Despite the projected loss of residents, Somerset County is geographically located in the heart of western Pennsylvania’s thriving recreational outdoor economy. Our mountains, trails and heritage assets combine to make Somerset County a true destination, welcoming the world to our communities.”  

How do we continue what we do?  

Aldom said festivals and special events will have to adjust their offerings if they want to continue bringing people to these events. 

"Some of the businesses are starting to adapt, allowing employees to volunteer at events during the workday. That is definitely having an effect. It's working," he said. "The younger population has a different mentality than we have. Are we making improvements to make local people come? Yes, I gotta believe we're all doing that." 

Aldom gives an example that he's experienced firsthand. The chamber hosts an antique fair every August. The event used to include more than 100 antique vendors a few years ago, but now the chamber is struggling to get 70. Aldom said it had to be regenerated into Antiques, Artisans and Ales to draw a different crowd. 

"The antique industry isn't what it used to be. We had to do something because antique dealers are decreasing. By attrition, we have nobody to replace them," he said. "Artisans add a different profession to draw other people to get people there. Ales has an entertainment value." 

Aldom said adding new events to create more interest and reach a different bracket of people is another way to increase tourism in the county. 

"One area that went big is the Maple Tours. That became an asset, a precursor to the maple festival," he said. "They describe the maple process and people are totally interested in that." 

Another growth area was not offered until recently – tours of breweries, distilleries and wineries. 

"They're offering tours and events to bring in visitors," Aldom said. "That is an area that has potential, but it has to be something somebody can make money at. To get people moving around the county. 

"The spur to Flight 93 is another bicyclist attraction. The new spur will be something everybody will like to explore. Meyersdale, Rockwood and Garrett should see an increase in visitors. Anything you do to make the people stay longer."  

The organizations, businesses and festivals have to work together to bring the people here, Aldom said. He recommends they "leverage more collaborative advertising and marketing. How do we work together for this?"

A sweet time for all: 77th Pa. Maple Festival big part of community of Meyersdale

Finding volunteers is a challenge

Aldom said his biggest concern is finding volunteers. 

"Volunteers, or the lack thereof, is scary. Workforce is an issue, not just in tourism, but fire departments, emergency medical services, other areas. It's systemic. Is there a way we can cross over with volunteers? We've got to look at ways to help each other," he said. "Make a commitment to each other – you help us and we'll help you. It's got to be addressed." 

The commissioners agree the population decline will continue to challenge human resources, both workforce and volunteers. 

“The county can continue its momentum by using the next decade to fund the completion of the 9/11 trail, maintain the quality experience of the GAP and strengthen its network of volunteers to maintain those trail systems,” Tokar-Ickes said. “The county can also use the recreation economy as an emerging marketing strategy to attract those who want to live here and work remotely by partnering with providers to expand high-speed internet access in our communities.” 

Aldom said the question that business people he's met with lately are saying is, "Can you reverse that decrease in population projection?" 

"You can, but what would it take?" he asked. 

Who is JD Vance? What to know about Donald Trump's VP pick

Former President Donald Trump  tapped JD Vance  to be his running mate at the Republican National Convention , catapulting the Ohio GOP senator even more into the national spotlight.

Here’s what you need to know about Vance.

More: Trump made MAGA happen. JD Vance represents those who will inherit it

Where is JD Vance from?

Vance grew up in Jackson, Kentucky and Middletown, Ohio. He described a childhood consumed by poverty and abuse in his best-selling 2016 memoir , "Hillbilly Elegy." Vance's mother struggled with drug addiction, so he spent many of his formative years with his grandmother – known to him as Mamaw.

How old is JD Vance?

Vance is 39. If elected, he would be the youngest vice president since Richard Nixon. His birthday is Aug. 2, 1984.

Did JD Vance serve in the military?

Vance joined the Marines Corps after high school and served as a public affairs marine in Iraq.

Is JD Vance married?

Vance's wife, Usha Vance, is a litigator for a law firm based in San Francisco and Washington, D.C. The pair met as students at Yale Law School and got married in 2014, one year after they graduated.

The couple has three young children: Ewan, Vivek and Mirabel.

Where does JD Vance live?

Vance and his family live in the East Walnut Hills neighborhood of Cincinnati. The senator also bought a $1.5 million home in Alexandria, Virginia, last year, Politico reported .

How long has JD Vance been in politics?

Vance was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022 after defeating former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan for an open seat in Ohio.

What’s the history between Vance and Trump?

Vance openly criticized Trump in 2016 as pundits used his memoir to explain the former president's popularity with white, rural voters. He previously suggested Trump could be "America’s Hitler," called him noxious and compared him to an opioid.

But Vance changed his tune as he geared up for his 2022 Senate run, deleting controversial tweets and crediting Trump for the work he did in office. He secured Trump's endorsement in a chaotic Republican Senate primary and is now one of the former president's most loyal allies.

JD Vance didn't vote for Donald Trump in 2016

In one NPR interview , he joked that he would rather write his dog on the ballot than vote for Trump or Hillary Clinton.

"I think that I'm going to vote third party because I can't stomach Trump," the "Hillbilly Elegy" author said at the time. "I think that he's noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place."

What are Vance's policy positions?

Vance personifies what's known as the New Right , a populist conservatism that rejects many traditional Republican views. He supports tariffs on trade and opposes U.S. intervention in foreign conflicts, particularly the war between Russia and Ukraine. He's also spoken out against potential cuts to Social Security.

Some of Vance's work in the Senate has been bipartisan. He introduced a rail safety bill with Sen. Sherrod Brown after the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. He also worked with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren on legislation to hold executives accountable for failed banks.

At the same time, many of his other bills reflect conservative views. For example, Vance introduced legislation to ban gender-affirming care for minors and a bill to eliminate diversity programs in the federal government.

Where does JD Vance stand on abortion?

Vance opposes abortion and often says the government should find ways to encourage people to have children.

Like other Republicans, however, Vance changed how he discusses the issue after Ohio and other states voted in favor of abortion access last year. In a December CNN interview , he said Republicans must "accept that people do not want blanket abortion bans."

More recently, he told Meet the Press that he supports access to the abortion drug mifepristone.

Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.

UN Tourism | Bringing the world closer

Unwto 2022: a year in review.

2022 has been the year to rethink tourism . Countries around the world turned UNWTO’s vision for a greener, smarter and more inclusive sector into real action.

2022 began on a positive note. Data from UNWTO showed that tourism was cautiously taking off , and that it needed to be rethought . The UN amplified UNWTO’s global advocacy for tourism’s role in recovery. UNWTO partnered with sister agencies like WHO for example, around joint warnings that “ Blanket Travel Restrictions Don’t Work ".

Advancing common UN goals, UNWTO and WHO called for the lifting of travel bans and agreed to collaborate on a global trust architecture for the recovery of travel. While leaders committed to join UNWTO to build a social and environmentally sustainable tourism, February ended with UNWTO leading the voice of tourism for peace and solidarity in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

UNWTO data continued to reflect the promising start of tourism in 2022. This month, UNWTO released New Guidelines Put Women’s Empowerment at Heart of Tourism’s Restart , and announced the launch of the second edition of Best Tourism Villages by UNWTO to promote rural development through tourism.

Meeting for the first ever extraordinary UNWTO General Assembly against the backdrop of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, UNWTO Members voted to suspend Russia from Membership . Reinforcing the Global Goals, UNWTO launched the “Awake Tourism Challenge” for startups . The Glasgow Declaration kept growing since its launch at COP26 and surpassed 500 signatories to take climate action through tourism.

A landmark moment: UNWTO and tourism reached the top of the UN agenda: the first ever UN General Assembly High-Level Debate on Sustainable Tourism in New York, fueling immediate actions and reverberating during the rest of the year. Other May highlights include upgrading SMEs with the Digital Futures programme , and strengthening consumers’ rights with more countries adhering to the International Code for the Protection of Tourists .

Facing up to uncertainty, tourism kept on growing , as reported by the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. This set the backdrop for the 116 UNWTO Executive Council (Jeddah, Saudi Arabia). UNWTO successfully advocated for tourism action at the UN Ocean Conference (Lisbon, Portugal), ahead of the biggest event on tourism and youth.

Youth empowerment is a UNWTO priority. The first Global Youth Tourism Summit gathered young people from 57 countries to be part of tourism’s decisions, as reflected in the Sorrento Call to Action . That same month, the UN Secretary-General's  Progress report on SDGs drew on UNWTO’s statistical work to track tourism’s role in driving growth.

International tourism continued reporting positive, recording 250 million international arrivals during the first five months of 2022. This set the backdrop ahead of World Tourism Day 2022 and its theme Rethinking Tourism .

27 September, World Tourism Day emphasized the sector’s unique potential to drive recovery and deliver positive change for people everywhere. This followed the G20 Tourism Working Group me eting in Bali, where UNWTO presented the G20 Bali Guidelines for SMEs. Looking at the progress since the start of the year, tourism was back to 60% of pre-pandemic levels.

A busy month also saw UNWTO advancing tourism and rural development at the 6th Wine Conference on Wine Tourism (Alba, Italy), and promoting education in tourism with the launch of the first national competition of UNWTO Students’ League in Switzerland.

Sustainability and the green transformation of tourism took centre stage in October as the UNWTO International Network of Tourism Observatories (INSTO) welcomed more members, and Ministers agreed to advance circularity and climate action in Pan European tourism.

Tourism was transformed at the UNWTO Ministers’ Summit, the most successful edition to date with delegates joining UNWTO’s vision to rethink tourism. UNWTO made the case for tourism in COP27 , where it represented over 700 signatories of the Glasgow Declaration advancing a NetZero sector. This was followed by new data showing arrivals reached 63% of pre-pandemic levels during January-September 2022. This set the framework for the 117 UNWTO Executive Council (Marrakesh, Morocco).

Rural development, inclusivity and sustainability led conversations at the 7th World Forum on Gastronomy Tourism . Winners of Best Tourism Villages and Students League wrapped up 2022 with their solutions to boost rural development through tourism. In 2023 we look forward, making the shift from rethinking to transforming the sector around key priorities: jobs and training, education and youth development, and sustainability and innovation. With UNWTO as tourism's voice at the global level, including at the UN General Assembly, the sector has never been more relevant - nor more needed.

• News Releases

Tourism is Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels, but Challenges Remain

World Economic Forum, [email protected]

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• High-income economies in Europe and Asia-Pacific continue to lead the World Economic Forum Travel and Tourism Index, with the United States, Spain and Japan topping the rankings again.
• Despite post-pandemic growth, the global tourism sector still faces complex challenges, with recovery varied by region; only marginal overall score improvements since the 2021 edition.
• Developing economies are making strides – who account for 52 out of 71 economies improving since 2019 – but significant investment is needed to bridge gaps and increase market share.
• Read the report here .

New York, USA, 21 May 2024 – International tourist arrivals and the travel and tourism sector’s contribution to global GDP are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, driven by the lifting of COVID-19-related travel restrictions and strong pent-up demand, as per the new World Economic Forum travel and tourism study, released today.

Topping the 2024 list of economies are the United States, Spain, Japan, France and Australia. The Middle East had the highest recovery rates in international tourist arrivals (20% above the 2019 level), while Europe, Africa and the Americas all showed a strong recovery of around 90% in 2023.

These are some of the top findings of the Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024 (TTDI) , a biennial report published in collaboration with the University of Surrey, which analyses the travel and tourism sectors of 119 countries around a range of factors and policies.

“This year marks a turning point for the travel and tourism sector, which we know has the capacity to unlock growth and serve communities through economic and social transformation,” said Francisco Betti, Head of the Global Industries team at the World Economic Forum. “The TTDI offers a forward-looking window into the current and future state of travel and tourism for leaders to navigate the latest trends in this complex sector and sustainably unlock its potential for communities and countries across the world.”

Post-pandemic recovery

The global tourism industry is expected to recover from the lows of the COVID-19 pandemic and surpass the levels seen before the crisis. This is largely being driven by a significant increase in demand worldwide, which has coincided with more available flights, better international openness, and increased interest and investment in natural and cultural attractions.

However, the global recovery has been mixed. While 71 of the 119 ranked economies increased their scores since 2019, the average index score is just 0.7% above pre-pandemic levels.

Although the sector has moved past the shock of the global health crisis, it continues to deal with other external challenges, from growing macroeconomic, geopolitical and environmental risks, to increased scrutiny of its sustainability practices and the impact of new digital technologies, such as big data and artificial intelligence. In addition, labour shortages are ongoing, and air route capacity, capital investment, productivity and other sector supply factors have not kept up with the increase in demand. This imbalance, worsened by global inflation, has increased prices and service issues.

TTDI 2024 highlights Out of the top 30 index scorers in 2024, 26 are high-income economies, 19 are based in Europe, seven are in Asia-Pacific, three are in the Americas and one (the United Arab Emirates) is in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). The top 10 countries in the 2024 edition are the United States, Spain, Japan, France, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Italy and Switzerland.

The results highlight that high-income economies generally continue to have more favourable conditions for travel and tourism development. This is helped by conducive business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure, and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions.

Nevertheless, developing countries have seen some of the greatest improvements in recent years. Among the upper-middle-income economies, China has cemented its ranking in the top 10; major emerging travel and tourism destinations of Indonesia, Brazil and Türkiye have joined China in the top quartile of the rankings. More broadly, low- to upper-middle-income economies account for over 70% of countries that have improved their scores since 2019, while MENA and sub-Saharan Africa are among the most improved regions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only high-income economies to rank among the top 10 most improved economies between 2019 and 2024.

Despite these strides, the TTDI warns that significant investment is needed to close gaps in enabling conditions and market share between developing and high-income countries. One possible pathway to help achieve this would be sustainably leveraging natural and cultural assets – which are less correlated with country income level than other factors – and can offer developing economies an opportunity for tourism-led economic development.

“It’s essential to bridge the divide between differing economies’ ability to build a strong environment for their travel and tourism sector to thrive,” said Iis Tussyadiah, Professor and Head of the School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the University of Surrey. “The sector has big potential to foster prosperity and mitigate global risks, but that potential can only be fully realized through a strategic and inclusive approach.”

Mitigating future global challenges

According to the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report, the travel and tourism sector faces various complex risks , including geopolitical uncertainties, economic fluctuations, inflation and extreme weather. Balancing growth with sustainability also remains a major problem, due to high seasonality, overcrowding, and a likely return of pre-pandemic emissions levels. The report also analyses persistent concerns about equity and inclusion. While the tourism sector offers a major source of relatively high-wage jobs, particularly in developing countries, gender parity remains a major issue for regions such as MENA and South Asia.

Despite these challenges, the sector can play a significant role in addressing them. To achieve this, decision-makers should prioritize actions such as leveraging tourism for nature conservation efforts; investing in skilled, inclusive and resilient workforces; strategically managing visitor behaviour and infrastructure development; encouraging cultural exchange between visitors and local communities; and using the sector to bridge the digital divide, among other policies.

If managed strategically, the travel and tourism sector – which has historically represented 10% of global GDP and employment – has the potential to emerge as a key contributor to the well-being and prosperity of communities worldwide.

About the Travel and Tourism Development Index 2024

The 2024 edition of the TTDI includes several improvements based on newly available data and recently developed indicators on the environmental and social impact of travel and tourism. The changes made to the 2024 Index limit its comparability to the previously published TTDI 2021. This year's report includes recalculated 2019 and 2021 results, using new adjustments. TTDI 2024 reflects the latest available data at the time of collection – end of 2023. The TTDI is part of the Forum’s broader work with industry communities actively working to build a better future enabled by sustainable, inclusive, and resilient industry ecosystems.

Notes to editors

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Gabriella Borter is a reporter on the U.S. National Affairs team, covering cultural and political issues as well as breaking news. She has won two Front Page Awards from the Newswomen’s Club of New York - in 2020 for her beat reporting on healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2019 for her spot story on the firing of the police officer who killed Eric Garner. The latter was also a Deadline Club Awards finalist. She holds a B.A. in English from Yale University and joined Reuters in 2017.

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