turkey tourism economy

Turkey's tourism revenues nearly triple, but many Turks stay home

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• Foreign visitor numbers rebound to near pre-pandemic levels
• Tourism revenues key to Turkish economy
• Lira's tumble makes Turkey a more attractive destination

COSTS DAMPEN DOMESTIC TOURISM

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Reporting by Canan Sevgili, Ceyda Caglayan, Berna Suleymanoglu and Azra Ceylan; Writing by Daren Butler; Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen and Tomasz Janowski

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Turkey Tourism Revenues

Tourism revenues in turkey rose 6.8 percent year-on-year to usd 12.27 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, of which 84.8 percent came from foreign visitors while 15.2 percent came from turkish citizens residing abroad. moreover, the number of visitors recorded a 4.1 percent growth, totaling usd 12.47 million, with the average per capita spending rising by 2.5 percent to reach usd 984. expenditure on sports, education & cultural activities surged by 49.4 percent, accommodation expenses saw an increase of 14.3 percent, and food & beverages expenditures rose by 12.9 percent. for the whole 2023, tourism revenues expanded by 16.9 percent to reach usd 54.32 million. source: turkish statistical institute, tourism revenues in turkey decreased to 12273 usd million in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 20230 usd million in the third quarter of 2023. tourism revenues in turkey averaged 4684.56 usd million from 1990 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 20230.00 usd million in the third quarter of 2023 and a record low of 294.00 usd million in the first quarter of 1990. this page provides - turkey tourism revenues- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. turkey tourism revenues - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on april of 2024., tourism revenues in turkey decreased to 12273 usd million in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 20230 usd million in the third quarter of 2023. tourism revenues in turkey is expected to be 10100.00 usd million by the end of this quarter, according to trading economics global macro models and analysts expectations. in the long-term, the turkey tourism revenues is projected to trend around 16500.00 usd million in 2025 and 18900.00 usd million in 2026, according to our econometric models.,   markets,   gdp,   labour,   prices,   money,   trade,   government,   business,   consumer,   housing,   taxes,   health,   climate.

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Turkey’s Travel & Tourism Sector to Grow at Twice the Rate of the National Economy

Sector set to create more than 716,000 over the next 10 years

Turkey is set to be the fourth most popular European destination amongst travellers this summer

London, UK: The World Travel & Tourism Council’s latest Economic Impact Report (EIR) reveals Turkey’s Travel & Tourism’s GDP is forecasted to grow at an average rate of 5.5% annually between over the next decade, more than twice the 2.5% growth rate of country’s overall economy.

The forecast from the World Travel & Tourism Council ( WTTC ) shows by 2032, the sector’s contribution to the nations GDP could reach nearly TRY 1,036 billion (US$117 billion), representing 11% of the total economy.

The sector is also expected to create more than 716,000 new jobs over the next decade.

By the end of this year, the sector’s contribution to GDP is expected to grow 15.5% to nearly TRY 607 billion (US$68.5 billion), amounting to 8.3% of the nation’s economy, while employment in the sector is set to grow by 4% to reach more than 2.5 million jobs.

Latest flight booking data from WTTC’s knowledge partner ForwardKeys shows that over the key summer period this year, Turkey is set to be the fourth most popular European hot spots amongst sun-seeking travellers, who will be heading to city destinations such as Istanbul, and the beaches of Antalya, Bodrum, and Dalaman.

The data shows that flight bookings are already overtaking pre-pandemic levels with bookings from the UK up 101%.

Other source markets are also outperforming 2019, with bookings from the U.S., Canada, and Ireland up 57%, 28% and 18% respectively.

Julia Simpson, WTTC President & CEO, said: “The future looks bright for Turkey’s Travel & Tourism sector with its contribution to GDP set to outpace the national economy for the next 10 years, creating almost three quarters of a million new jobs.

“Flight booking data from our partner ForwardKeys clearly shows that this popular destination is set to enjoy a bumper summer season.

“Before the pandemic, Turkey’s economy was highly reliant on international tourism, so its recovery is critical to both the economy and jobs.”

Turkey’s Travel & Tourism sector’s contribution to GDP was 11% (TRY 693.3 billion or US$78.2 billion) in 2019, falling to just 5.1% (TRY 327.2 billion or US$36.9 billion) in 2020, which represented a painful 52.8% loss.

The sector also supported nearly 2.6 million jobs across the country, before suffering an 18% drop, falling to 2.1 million.

WTTC’s latest EIR report also reveals that 2021 saw the beginning of the recovery for the Turkish Travel & Tourism sector.

Last year, its contribution to GDP climbed 60.6% year on year, to reach TRY 525.5 billion (US$59.3 billion).

The sector also saw a recovery of almost 300,000 Travel & Tourism jobs, representing a 14% rise to reach more than 2.4 million.

The global tourism body says the sector’s contribution to the economy and employment could have been higher if it weren’t for the impact of the Omicron variant, which led to the recovery faltering around the world, with many countries reinstating severe travel restrictions.

Download the press release  

China’s Travel & Tourism Sector Set to Recover by More Than 60% This Year, Reveals WTTC

Portugal’s Travel & Tourism Sector Faces Job Shortfall of 85,000 This Year, Says WTTC Report

UK Travel & Tourism Sector Sees a Massive Job Shortfall of More Than 200,000 This Year, Says WTTC Report

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Can Tourism Be the Ticket to Turkey’s Economic Recovery?

12/01/2023 by EOS Intelligence

Home WORLD ECONOMY ECONOMY Can Tourism Be the Ticket to Turkey’s Economic Recovery?

Tourism is one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing sectors in Turkey . The country is highly reliant on tourism for foreign exchange earnings. However, the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia-Ukraine war have affected the country’s tourism industry and resulted in a decline in tourist visits. While the spike in energy and commodity costs due to war has widened the current account deficit gap, it has also made tourism cheaper in the country due to a significant decline in currency value. This has resulted in an unprecedented influx of tourists once the pandemic subsided. Furthermore, various initiatives have been taken by the government to boost tourism in hopes of reducing the current account deficit, bringing down inflation rates, and supporting economic growth.

Turkey is known for its vast historical sites in the major cities of Istanbul and Antalya, as well as the Aegean and Mediterranean Sea coasts. The tourism sector employs about 2.6 million people in the country. The sector also contributes significantly to new tourism-related business sources and foreign exchange earnings and, thus, plays a crucial role in the economic development of the country, especially in the post-COVID era. In 2021, it is estimated that Turkey generated about US$25 billion in revenue from the tourism sector.

The country’s dependence on tourism has increased significantly over the past few years. Turkey’s travel and tourism sector contribution to GDP increased to 11% in 2019 as compared with 4.7% in 2014. As per the  United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) , Turkey was the sixth-most visited country in the world in 2019. While the country’s rank came down to 15th in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak, it jumped to fourth in 2021 in the post-COVID-19 recovery phase.

In addition to this, as per the 2022 Economic Impact Report (EIR) by the World Travel and Tourism Council, Turkey’s Travel and Tourism GDP is expected to increase by about 5.5% on an annual basis over the next decade (2022-2032) and create over 716,000 new jobs in the country. The projected growth rate in the country’s travel and tourism sector is more than double the projected growth rate of the overall economy, which is expected to be 2.5% during the same time period.

Challenges faced by the tourism sector over the years

While the tourism sector remains one of the best-performing sectors in Turkey, it has faced its own set of challenges over the past several years. Inflation has been rapidly rising in the country since 2016 due to factors such as low-interest rates, the energy crisis, an increase in commodity prices, and declining currency value. This has significantly affected domestic travelers and business owners in the tourism sector. Several terrorist attacks, particularly in the southeast part of the country and Istanbul and Ankara by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and ISIS, also severely affected tourist visits and economic growth in 2016.

Owing to the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, spending on tourism by international visitors in Turkey declined by about US$20 billion, a 70% decline in comparison with 2019. This led to a decline in demand and unemployment in related sub-sectors, including airlines, travel agencies, hotels, and car rental companies, among others.

Stringent measures and trade restrictions resulted in a significant decline in air traffic and affected the aviation industry. For instance, the National carrier, Turkish Airlines, reported a net loss of about US$761 million in 2020.

The hospitality industry was also hit due to a fall in tourism in the country. Most hotels faced significant revenue loss during lockdown months. According to the Turkish Hotel Association (TUROB), the hotel occupancy rate in the first nine months of 2020 was just 35.4%, a decline of 47.8% from the same time period in the previous year. Moreover, revenue per available room declined by 52.5% to US$24.7 during the same period.

Can Tourism Be the Ticket to Turkey’s Economic Recovery? by EOS Intelligence

The 2022 war between Ukraine and Russia further affected the tourism sector growth in Turkey. Tourist visits from Russia and Ukraine used to account for a significant share of the total number of tourists visiting the country for holidays from Europe. Over 4.7 million Russians and 2 million Ukrainians visited Turkey for vacation in 2021. While 2.2 million Russians visited Turkey during January-July 2022, it is expected that the total number of tourists from Russia in 2022 will fall short of the 2021 figures due to prolonged war and the imposition of western sanctions and flight suspension. The number of tourists from Ukraine declined to 374,000 in the first seven months of 2022, in comparison with 1.1 million during the same period in 2021. The war also spiked Turkey’s inflation rate, which touched about 80% in August 2022.

While the Turkish government is trying to attract tourists from Russia by collaborating with Turkish aircraft to transport foreign guests amid war, it is not likely to recover tourist visits to pre-war levels.

Depreciating currency value boosts tourism in the country

The increase in the current account deficit due to rising energy and commodity costs in the backdrop of war in Ukraine has led to a massive currency value plunge for the Turkish Lira in 2022. Turkey is a net importer of oil and gas, and a spike in energy costs amid the Ukraine-Russia war has widened the current account deficit gap. As per the Turkish Central Bank data, the current account deficit increased to about US$32.4 billion in the first half of 2022. As of September 2022, the Turkish Lira declined to about TRY18.3 per US$1 compared with an average of TRY 8.9 per US$1 in September 2021 and is likely to decline further in 2023 with rising inflation rates due to interest rate cut.

A significant plunge in the currency value has made Turkey a more affordable destination for holidays in comparison with other European tourist destinations. The cost of stay, food, and travel has become significantly lower for foreigners. Adding to this, there has been a decline in COVID-19 cases across the globe, which has also provided the tourism sector a strong boost.

The number of foreign tourists visiting Turkey increased by 94% in 2021 (compared with 2020), reaching 24.7 million. It further witnessed a y-o-y increase of about 128% for the period of January-July 2022 to reach 23.3 million tourists during the period. The country’s revenue from tourism also witnessed a y-o-y increase of 190% in Q2 2022 to reach US$8.72 billion. In 2022, Germany accounted for the largest share of visitors, reaching 2.9 million from January to August. The number of tourists from Middle Eastern and European countries has also increased significantly in 2022. This has also resulted in an increase in share prices of Turkish Airlines. For instance, the share value of Turk Hava Yollari AO, also known as Turkish Airways, increased by about 147% between January and May 2022.

Since Turkey is highly reliant on tourism for its foreign exchange earnings, the significant boost in tourism is likely to help lower the widening current account deficit in the country. A low current account deficit is likely to increase the value of the Lira and, thus, bring down the inflation rate and support economic growth. However, further decline in interest rates by the Central Bank is resulting in an increase in the inflation rate, which reached 80.2% in September 2022. Therefore, while tourism can help soften the blow on the economy by reeling in foreign currency and earnings, it is unlikely that it will single-handedly help the economy recover from the ongoing crisis. That being said, the government is undertaking several efforts to capitalize on the growth in the tourism sector and provide a much-needed cushion to the economy as a whole.

Initiatives aimed at boosting tourism in the country

The Turkish government realizes the role tourism can play in uplifting the economy and has been undertaking several initiatives to boost the sector. For instance, in 2021, the government adopted a new promotion strategy, ‘Go Turkey’, to boost tourism. The ‘Go Turkey’ website encompasses the use of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and communication models. It follows over 100 media and social media outlets which cover news about the country. Additionally, it also analyses positive or negative content on Turkey and determines promotion priority based on this analysis. The aim is to focus on advanced public relations by integrating all 81 provinces under the system and promoting tourism together as a single voice.

A few other initiatives taken up to boost tourism in the country include additional domestic flight routes, medical tourism support, transportation infrastructure development, and several hotel investments. In August 2022, Turkish Airlines signed a deal with the Services Exporters’ Association (HİB) to help increase medical tourism in Turkey to meet the medical tourism industry’s export service revenue target aimed at US$5 billion in 2023.

About US$172 billion has also been invested in communication and transportation infrastructure during 2003-2021, and the government is planning to invest an additional US$198 billion by the end of 2053. Some of the key ongoing projects include The MBB – Gari – Mezitli Metro, The IBB – Kazlicesme – Sogutlucesme Metro Line, and the IMM – Ucyol-Buca Koop Light Rail, among others, aimed at boosting the transportation network in the country. Additionally, according to the Hotel Association of Turkey (TÜROB), new investments were planned in about 30 provinces in the first half of 2022. The new investment incentive includes applications for 11 five-star hotels, 18 four-star hotels, and 26 three-star hotels.

As of March 2022, TUI Group, a leading German travel and tourism company, together with its partners in Turkey, planned on expanding its holiday program and developing a winter program across destinations to attract more tourists as compared with pre-pandemic levels.

Additionally, in July 2022, Cengiz Construction, a leading construction company, started the construction of villas and hotels in Bodrum’s Cennet Bay together with Bulgari, a luxury hospitality company, with a significant increase in international visitors in the country.

Furthermore, travel companies and agencies are focusing on the adoption of digital platforms to promote tourism in the country as people are becoming more technology savvy and prefer online booking. It also helps attract travelers from different countries across the globe. Hotel booking through digital platforms increased to 81% in 2019, up from 73% in 2014, and is expected to increase further with rising penetration of smartphones and easy internet access. Turkey’s Tourism Development Agency (TGA) is likely to spend about US$100 million to promote tourism in over 120 countries through internet platforms and media in 2022.

EOS Perspective

Tourism contributes a significant amount to the Turkish GDP and is likely to help limit the consequences of increasing commodity and energy prices by reducing the widening current account deficit gap and easing the pressure on the economy. That being said, it is unlikely to help the country recover completely from its economic woes. Although the depreciating Lira has made Turkey a very affordable destination for holidays, people operating in tourism businesses are significantly affected by the high inflation levels as well. Hotels and resorts are facing high costs of employee wages, food supplies, and car rents, among others, which hurt their profits. Interest rates cut by the Central Bank are further increasing the inflation rate. In addition to this, the key tourist season, which is the summer season for Turkey, lasts for just a few months, and the sector’s revenue and profitability fall in the winter season. This makes it evident that the Turkish economy must base its recovery on a balanced mix of support across several sectors.

The World Bank in Türkiye

Türkiye has quickly adopted measures to help contain the spread of COVID-19 and save lives, whilst providing economic support to affected firms and households. The economic outlook is more uncertain, than usual and will depend on how quickly this unprecedented crisis can be brought under control.

Country Context

Türkiye is the 17th largest economy in the world, according to IMF, with a GDP of $1024 billion as of 2023. It is a member of the OECD and the G20 and an increasingly important donor of official development assistance (ODA).

Türkiye pursued ambitious reforms and enjoyed high growth rates between 2006 and 2017, which propelled the country to the higher reaches of upper-middle-income status and reduced poverty. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.4% between 2002 and 2022, resulting in income per capita (in real terms) that was more than doubled over the same period. Growth was accompanied by rapid poverty reduction; the poverty rate decreased by more than half from above 20% in 2007 to 7.6% in 2021. As of 2021, the share of people below the $6.85 per day. 

For Türkiye to preserve and further its progress, it must navigate through significant challenges that encompass economic resilience, poverty and inclusion, and sustainability. Key among these is revitalizing economic growth in a post-COVID era marked by a challenging macroeconomic climate and a downward trend in productivity observed since the mid-2010s. Furthermore, although economic expansion has continued, the reduction in poverty rates has lost momentum since 2016, hindered by increasing inequality. On the environmental front, Türkiye's industrial base and transport heavily relies on carbon-intensive processes and fossil fuels, presenting both challenges and opportunities in light of the European Union's forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism—a critical consideration given the EU's role as a major market for Turkish exports. Lastly, Türkiye's distinct geographic and socioeconomic conditions significantly increase its vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive adaptation measures.

Türkiye is addressing the effects of the earthquakes that hit the country on February 6, 2023. With magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, the earthquakes were followed by thousands of aftershocks and another 6.7 magnitude earthquake on February 20. According to official statistics, they caused more than 50,000 casualties, injured 107,000 people, damaged or destroyed 1.9 million housing units, and displaced 3.3 million people, of whom two million needed shelter. An assessment by the Government of Türkiye with support from the EU, the United Nations (UN), and the World Bank Group estimated the recovery and reconstruction needs associated with the earthquakes at around $81.5 billion. Risks also remain high, with about 70% of the country’s population living in first- and second-degree seismic zones.

Following the May 2023 elections, the newly appointed economic team has launched a comprehensive policy set to address past macroeconomic imbalances, especially high inflation. Since then, Türkiye has been moving to normalizing its macroeconomic strategies. The country experienced a robust economic expansion of 4.5% in 2023. However, this growth rate is expected to decrease to 3.0% in 2024, before picking up again in subsequent years on a stronger basis. Longstanding macro and structural challenges that undermine potential growth—including high inflation, low productivity growth, low labor force participation, and employment levels, and weakening foreign direct investment—would require robust fiscal measures and ambitious structural reforms to help accelerate sustainable economic growth.

Last Updated: Apr 09, 2024

The Türkiye Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is the World Bank Group strategy to deliver impactful solutions at greater scale and speed in Türkiye over FY24-FY28. The CPF is fully aligned with the Bank Group’s mission of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity on a livable planet and with the Government of Türkiye’s 12th National Development Plan (NDP) 2024-2028. It aims to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and support recovery and reconstruction from recent shocks. The CPF outlines how the Bank Group will further scale up impact in one of its largest country portfolios to meet priority country and global challenges.

A key focus of the CPF is to help the country mobilize private capital to address key emerging challenges on the growth, poverty and inclusion, and sustainability fronts.

During the CPF period, the Bank Group will focus on selected challenges under three broad areas:

• High and sustainable productivity growth : The focus will be on promoting climate-smart agriculture to strengthen resilience against climate change and bolster food security; greening the industrial sector to reduce carbon emissions and maintain trade competitiveness; supporting economic recovery in areas affected by the 2023 earthquakes.
• Inclusive services and jobs : To address income and other inequalities, the focus will be to improve jobs for women, youth, and vulnerable groups; reduce disparities in health and education access and quality; and support resilient municipal infrastructure and services.
• Strengthen resilience against natural disasters : To help protect Türkiye’s people and economy, the Bank Group will prioritize disaster resilience and preparedness, management of natural resources and the transition to clean energy.

The CPF also emphasizes the need to accelerate digitalization, vital for boosting productivity and public service delivery. The Bank Group will work across many fronts to accelerate the use of digital technology, including improving the digital business ecosystem, supporting seismic and climate-resilient urban planning, extending hybrid education opportunities and improving financial inclusion.

There are 30 active IBRD operations amounting to $11.7 billion . The portfolio also includes one project financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF)and six trust fund-supported projects, including almost $600 million in European Union trust funds through the Facility for Refugees in Türkiye. 

Key Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) Activities:  The ASA portfolio is strategically consolidated around core and extended core ASAs including: Country Climate and Development Report, Programmatic Public Finance Review, Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Country Green Growth, Quality Learning and Emergency Response Roadmap, Understanding the Drivers of Regional Disparities in Türkiye and Sustainable, Efficient and Safe Transport for Türkiye.

In 2023, Türkiye's GDP expanded a 4.5%, fueled mainly by robust increases in private consumption (12.8% in real terms), investment (8.9%), and government consumption (5.2%). Exports contracted 2.7% in 2023 while imports grew firmly at 11.7%, dragging on growth. Sector-wise, the service sector grew by 4.8% and construction by 7.8%, benefiting from earthquake recovery efforts. The labor market remained resilient, with a 9.1% unemployment rate in January, despite the low labor force participation.

The current account deficit improved to $45.4 billion in 2023 (4.2% of GDP) from $49.1 billion in 2022, notably in the latter half of the year. Factors such as reduced foreign exchange volatility, the steady depreciation of the lira, a rebound in portfolio inflows, and a significant drop in the CDSs on Turkish assets (from over 700 to 320 by the end of March) contributed to a recovery in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) net reserves, from -$5.7 billion to +$19.6 billion as of March 15.

Inflation decreased from 57.7% in January 2023 to 38.2% in June 2023. Still, it escalated to 68.5% by March 2024, driven by factors including the lira's depreciation, significant minimum wage hikes, tax adjustments, and strong demand. Despite easing credit market restrictions, the high inflation and moderately strong capital levels have restrained bank loan growth. The banking sector, while facing maturity mismatches, has shown improvements in its foreign exchange position and capitalization, with non-performing loans decreasing and the ratio improving significantly.

The overall fiscal balance deteriorated to below -5% of GDP in 2023 (from -0.8 in 2022) due to rising expenditures and earthquake-related investment needs, and the primary balance was close to -3% of GDP (from +1.4 in 2022). However, the fiscal deficit is relatively low excluding earthquake-related expenditures. Public debt remains moderate at around 30% of GDP in 2023.

Poverty continued to decline but inequality widened between 2020 and 2021; the Gini coefficient increased to 46.0 in 2021 as the bottom and top income deciles reaped the largest benefits of growth. The bottom decile experienced the highest real increase in labor income (26%), likely driven by the minimum wage increase that in 2021 exceeded CPI inflation; while the top decile reaped the highest benefits from real increases in business incomes (96%), likely due to the surge in asset prices. Poverty reduction was largely due to increased labor earnings.

Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to slow to 3.0% in 2024, on the back of policy tightening and slower global growth, before picking up pace in subsequent years. Due to stringent monetary policies, inflation is expected to gradually decrease after peaking in May 2024, while the current account balance is anticipated to improve from 2024 onwards. The general budget deficit is likely to remain elevated in 2024 despite fiscal consolidation efforts, partly due to earthquake recovery needs.

Addressing structural issues and implementing pro-growth reforms are critical for enhancing private sector productivity and investment in the mid-term. Poverty reduction is expected to continue in the short term, driven by wage increases outpacing inflation. However, without changes in growth distribution, inequality might rise, potentially hindering long-term poverty alleviation efforts.

The economic forecast hinges on the continuation of current policies, with balanced risks. Downsides include low net reserves, geopolitical tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities, and political pressures against policy normalization. Conversely, increased credibility of the economic team could attract more investments, stabilizing the currency and expediting economic adjustments.

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Greek PM meets Turkish tourists amid arrivals surge on Lesvos

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, currently on a campaign tour of Lesvos, on Friday met with Turkish tourists on the eastern Aegean island, which has seen a surge in visitors from the neighboring country following the implementation of the “visa-express” program.

More than 90 passengers arrived on a ferry from Ayvalik, approximately 14 nautical miles from the port of Mytilene. Twenty of them applied for the seven-day visa on Greek territory rather than at the consular office in Turkey.

Lesvos launched fast-track visas for Turkish tourists on April 1, following an agreement between Athens and Ankara, approved by the EU, to revive a previous scheme called the special Schengen Express Visa program for Turkish citizens wishing to visit certain eastern Aegean islands, including Lesvos.

An estimated 7,000 Turkish tourists visited the island during the seker bayrami holiday from April 6 to 14.

“I don’t need to emphasize how vital this is for the island’s local economy. I believe the smiles on the faces of all involved parties attest to it, as they witness a notable increase in tourist arrivals from Turkey,” Mitsotakis said during a meeting with local officials later on Friday.

“Furthermore, this program serves as concrete evidence that the diplomatic approach between Greece and Turkey produces tangible outcomes, primarily benefiting our islanders. They are the ones seeking to live in conditions of peace and security with our neighbor, and naturally, they also stand to gain economically from this ongoing communication.”

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Turks Are Running Out of Cash—and Patience

Erdogan’s economic gambles created an inflation mess. can his u-turn fix what’s broken .

ISTANBUL—On a wide staircase across the street from a popular bar in Turkey’s biggest city, crowds of people sit in the sunset, enjoying cheap drinks and snacks they brought from home. They used to go to the bar, and they’d still like to. They just can’t afford it.

“It keeps getting worse,” one waiter at the jilted bar said. “Salaries are low, but prices keep increasing. It’s frustrating for all of us,” he added, asking to remain anonymous, afraid he’d lose his job over the comment.

Turkey has, and has had for quite some time, an inflation problem. Last October, inflation hit a 24-year high of 85.5 percent on an annualized basis, meaning prices nearly doubled. This year, inflation has tempered from very high to somewhat high and is heading back toward being unsustainable. The kind of inflation that Turkey has on a monthly basis causes spasms of panic in the United States or Western Europe on an annual basis. In June, inflation was close to 40 percent year-on-year. In July, it was nearly 50 percent, and in August, it was nearly 60 percent. Investment banks and the government are in agreement that inflation will likely hit 65 percent by the end of the year. Ankara optimistically hopes to halve the inflation rate by next year.

The reason inflation went haywire is because of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that low interest rates would somehow cap inflation. The reason it might yet come under control is because of his belated jettisoning of that very approach, experts said, marked by a sudden U-turn in monetary policy.

For a long time, Erdogan insisted that Turkish Central Bank interest rates be kept relatively low, in order to keep credit flowing and the economy humming, even though that was a recipe for inflation. Ahead of the general elections this May, Erdogan raised Turkey’s minimum wage and tapped Central Bank foreign currency reserves to prop up the lira to help stabilize the currency. It was a short-term gambit.

People shop at a fish market in Istanbul on Jan. 7.

For now, post-elections, Erdogan seems to have gotten the gospel. In late August, the Central Bank significantly hiked interest rates for the third time since the May elections. Interest rates that were at 8.5 percent, and then leapt to 17.5 percent in July, are now at 25 percent. Higher interest rates should temper inflation by limiting the supply of easy money in an economy. They should also, in theory, prop up a country’s currency, though traders in lira haven’t gotten the memo. The Turkish lira, which in early 2008 came close to parity with the U.S. dollar, is now worth a little under 4 cents.

Erdogan has signaled a change in course by appointing Mehmet Simsek—a former deputy prime minister and Merrill Lynch banker—as finance minister, as well as Hafize Gaye Erkan as Central Bank governor. Simsek asserted Thursday that markets had faith in Erdogan’s economic stewardship. But as the musical chairs shuffle, a lot of Turks are running out of cash—and patience.

“Many household incomes are insufficient against inflation—impoverishment is now one of our biggest problems. We’re seeing an unusual inflation climb, and people are worried and disappointed,” Turkish economist Mustafa Sonmez said.

People prepare for prayer at the Kilic Ali Pasa mosque in Istanbul on Jan. 7.

When inflation rises that much, it affects the whole society, said Istanbul University sociologist Ugur Dolgun. With thinner wallets, “people go out less, eat out less, and skip cultural outings. Food security becomes their main priority. Stress levels are higher, as is depression, anxiety, and even domestic violence,” he said. Education doesn’t fare much better.

“Students now prefer evening classes or remote education because they need to work during the day,” Dolgun said. “They are pushed out of educational life due to economic problems. It’s all a vicious cycle we need to get out of.”

Hatice, 20, wanted to share her story but asked to use a pseudonym, saying she feels that criticizing the economy could backfire on her. A sociology student in her junior year, she decided to drop out of school for the fall semester, saying financial struggles had pushed her out.

What Does Turkey Actually Want?

Despite the policy whiplash at the NATO summit, Erdogan has been remarkably consistent in his foreign-policy goals.

Erdogan Has No Choice but to Reconcile With Assad

The Turkish leader is in a weak position to dictate the terms of what the new normal with Syria will be.

Turkey’s Halt on Iraqi Oil Exports Is Shaking Up Global Markets

A diplomatic deadlock over a 50-year-old pipeline agreement is wreaking havoc in the region—and beyond.

“I decided to work full time instead,” she said. “Of course I don’t want to quit my studies, but right now I can’t even afford campus accommodation. The economic crisis affects us students greatly—both in terms of not being able to afford studies as well as the fear of not finding work in our field after graduation.” For now, she has moved back in with her parents and deferred her junior year, spending her time working for an online retailer.

Turkey’s economy has struggled before. A 2001 crisis saw the stock market crash and the lira collapse, but when Erdogan came to power shortly after, he implemented new reforms. He drove exports and expanded foreign investment, all of which led to robust economic growth. The lira was doing well; the economy was booming. Many Turks were quickly catapulted to prosperity, and the economy was deemed a miracle. Hoping to further foster this growth, Erdogan eventually had Central Bank interest rates slashed—all the way down to 8.5 percent in February—before lately recanting. Many economists deemed the policy unorthodox, since lower rates would naturally fuel inflation, as well as growth.

A view from Istanbul’s Karakoy neighborhood over the Golden Horn, the horn-shaped estuary that bisects the city, on Aug. 30.

But as many Turks in cities such as Istanbul refrain from going out for a drink or a bite, one industry has been left unshaken: tourism. Mediterranean Turkey continues to attract millions of tourists each year, surpassing 22 million visitors and generating nearly $22 billion in revenue in the first six months of this year alone, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

Tourists from afar can spend worry-free. It’s those workers doing the serving who are suffering.

“On the streets, the tense atmosphere is tangible,” Istanbul resident Samira Shah said.

“Turkish people are worried, on edge even. A few days ago, I woke up just after midnight to a delivery man who had, at the end of his work day, noticed that he hadn’t charged me enough for an afternoon food delivery. He was aggressively ringing my doorbell, yelling that he immediately needed the 100 lira [$3.75] he mistakenly didn’t charge me or else his bosses would take it from an already low salary. He was desperate. I think there are many like him.”

Stefanie Glinski is a journalist covering conflicts and crises with a focus on Afghanistan and the wider Middle East. Twitter:  @stephglinski

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Economy of Turkey - statistics & facts

High inflation is triggered by the currency crisis, turkey's trade deficit, labor market and employment in turkey, key insights.

Detailed statistics

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey 2028

Ratio of government expenditure in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey

Annual gross national income (GNI) in Turkey 2010- 2022

Editor’s Picks Current statistics on this topic

Current statistics on this topic.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey 2028

Inflation rate in Turkey 2028

Share of economic sectors in gross domestic product in Turkey 2012-2022

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Selected industries in Turkey

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• Travel and tourism in Turkey
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Recommended statistics

Gross domestic product.

• Basic Statistic Share of Turkey in the global GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity 2028
• Basic Statistic Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey 2028
• Basic Statistic Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Turkey 2028
• Basic Statistic Gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey 2028
• Basic Statistic Share of economic sectors in gross domestic product in Turkey 2012-2022

Share of Turkey in the global GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity 2028

Turkey: Share in the global gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for purchasing power parity, from 2018 to 2028

Turkey: Growth of the real gross domestic product (GDP) from 2018 to 2028 (compared to the previous year)

Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Turkey 2028

Turkey: Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in current prices from 1987 to 2028 (in U.S. dollars)

Turkey: Gross domestic product (GDP) in current prices from 1987 to 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Turkey: Share of economic sectors in gross domestic product (GDP) from 2012 to 2022

Government finances

• Basic Statistic Ratio of government expenditure in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey
• Premium Statistic Government net borrowing/lending as a share of GDP in Turkey 2009-2022
• Premium Statistic General government expenses Turkey 2009-2022
• Premium Statistic General government revenue in Turkey 2009-2022
• Premium Statistic National debt of Turkey 2028
• Basic Statistic National debt in Turkey in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) 2028
• Premium Statistic Value of national savings in Turkey 2009-2022
• Premium Statistic Gross national savings rate in Turkey 2014-2029
• Premium Statistic Government budget balance in Turkey 2006-2023

Turkey: Ratio of government expenditure in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) from 2018 to 2028

Government net borrowing/lending as a share of GDP in Turkey 2009-2022

Net lending or borrowing of Turkey as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2009 to 2022

General government expenses Turkey 2009-2022

Total general government expenditure in Turkey from 2009 to 2022 (in billion Turkish lira)

General government revenue in Turkey 2009-2022

General government revenue in Turkey from 2009 to 2022 (in billion Turkish lira)

National debt of Turkey 2028

Turkey: National debt from 2018 to 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)

National debt in Turkey in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) 2028

Turkey: National debt from 2018 to 2028 in relation to gross domestic product (GDP)

Value of national savings in Turkey 2009-2022

Value of national savings in Turkey from 2009 to 2022 (in billion Turkish lira)

Gross national savings rate in Turkey 2014-2029

Gross national savings rate in Turkey from 2014 to 2029

Government budget balance in Turkey 2006-2023

Government budget balance in Turkey from 2006 to 2023 (in million Turkish lira)

• Basic Statistic Inflation rate in Turkey 2028
• Premium Statistic Year-on-year change in CPI in Turkey 2016-2024
• Premium Statistic Monthly consumer price index (CPI) in Turkey 2003-2023
• Premium Statistic Annual inflation rate (CPI) in Turkey 2015-2022, by main commodity groups
• Premium Statistic Domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey 2010-2023
• Premium Statistic Non-domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey 2010-2023

Turkey: Inflation rate from 1987 to 2028 (compared to the previous year)

Year-on-year change in CPI in Turkey 2016-2024

Year-on-year change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Turkey from July 2016 to January 2024

Monthly consumer price index (CPI) in Turkey 2003-2023

Consumer price index (CPI) in Turkey from January 2003 to September 2023

Annual inflation rate (CPI) in Turkey 2015-2022, by main commodity groups

Annual average of consumer price index (CPI) in Turkey from 2015 to 2022, by main commodity groups

Domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey 2010-2023

Domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey from January 2010 to October 2023

Non-domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey 2010-2023

Non-domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey from January 2010 to September 2023

Foreign trade

• Premium Statistic Total volume of foreign trade in Turkey 2013-2023
• Premium Statistic Foreign trade balance of Turkey 2013-2023
• Premium Statistic Total value of exports from Turkey 2015-2022
• Premium Statistic Total value of imports to Turkey 2015-2022
• Premium Statistic Share of Turkey's exports in GDP 2015-2022
• Premium Statistic Share of Turkey's imports in GDP 2015-2022
• Premium Statistic Leading 20 export commodities of Turkey 2023
• Premium Statistic Leading 20 import commodities of Turkey 2023
• Premium Statistic Main export partners of Turkey 2015-2023, by export value
• Premium Statistic Main import partners of Turkey 2014-2023, by import value

Total volume of foreign trade in Turkey 2013-2023

Total volume of foreign trade in Turkey from 2013 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Foreign trade balance of Turkey 2013-2023

Foreign trade balance of Turkey from 2013 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Total value of exports from Turkey 2015-2022

Total value of exports from Turkey from 2015 to 2022 (in million U.S. dollars)

Total value of imports to Turkey 2015-2022

Total value of imports to Turkey from 2015 to 2022 (in million U.S. dollars)

Share of Turkey's exports in GDP 2015-2022

Share of exports in gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey from 2015 to 2022

Share of Turkey's imports in GDP 2015-2022

Share of imports in gross domestic product (GDP) in Turkey from 2015 to 2022

Leading 20 export commodities of Turkey 2023

Leading 20 export commodities of Turkey in 2023, by export value (in billion U.S. dollars)

Leading 20 import commodities of Turkey 2023

Leading 20 import commodities of Turkey in 2023, by import value (in billion U.S. dollars)

Main export partners of Turkey 2015-2023, by export value

Leading export partners of Turkey from 2015 to 2023, by export value (in million U.S. dollars)

Main import partners of Turkey 2014-2023, by import value

Leading import partners of Turkey from 2014 to 2023, by import value (in million U.S. dollars)

Employment & wages

• Premium Statistic Labor force participation rate in Turkey 2022
• Basic Statistic Unemployment rate in Turkey 2022
• Basic Statistic Youth unemployment rate in Turkey in 2023
• Basic Statistic Number of people employed in Turkey 2014-2022, by economic sector
• Premium Statistic Number of people employed in Turkey Q4 2023, by occupation
• Premium Statistic Employment rate in Turkey 2022, by educational level
• Premium Statistic Monthly net minimum wage in Turkey 2005-2023
• Premium Statistic Disposable income per household in Turkey 2010-2022, by income quintile
• Premium Statistic Average annual income in Turkey 2008-2022, by gender

Labor force participation rate in Turkey 2022

Turkey: Labor force participation rate from 2012 to 2022

Unemployment rate in Turkey 2022

Turkey: Unemployment rate from 1999 to 2022

Youth unemployment rate in Turkey in 2023

Turkey: Youth unemployment rate from 2004 to 2023

Number of people employed in Turkey 2014-2022, by economic sector

Number of people employed in Turkey from 2014 to 2022, by economic sector (in 1,000s)

Number of people employed in Turkey Q4 2023, by occupation

Number of people employed in Turkey as of 4th quarter 2023, by occupation (in 1,000s)

Employment rate in Turkey 2022, by educational level

Employment rate of 25-to-64 year olds in Turkey in 2022, by educational level

Monthly net minimum wage in Turkey 2005-2023

Monthly net minimum wage in Turkey from 2005 to 2023 (in Turkish lira)

Disposable income per household in Turkey 2010-2022, by income quintile

Average annual disposable income per household in Turkey from 2010 to 2022, by income quintile (in Turkish lira)

Average annual income in Turkey 2008-2022, by gender

Average annual income in Turkey from 2008 to 2022, by gender (in Turkish lira)

Business enterprises

• Premium Statistic Number of active business enterprises in Turkey 2009-2022
• Premium Statistic Number of enterprises in Turkey 2022, by industry
• Premium Statistic Number of newly established business enterprises in Turkey 2015-2023
• Premium Statistic Number of closed business enterprises in Turkey 2015-2023
• Premium Statistic Revenue of enterprises in Turkey 2018-2022, by size
• Premium Statistic Largest public companies in Turkey 2023, by market value
• Premium Statistic Largest companies in Turkey 2023, by profit

Number of active business enterprises in Turkey 2009-2022

Number of active business enterprises in Turkey from 2009 to 2022 (in millions)

Number of enterprises in Turkey 2022, by industry

Number of enterprises in Turkey in 2022, by industry

Number of newly established business enterprises in Turkey 2015-2023

Number of newly established business enterprises in Turkey from 2015 to 2023

Number of closed business enterprises in Turkey 2015-2023

Number of closed business enterprises in Turkey from 2015 to 2023

Revenue of enterprises in Turkey 2018-2022, by size

Revenue of enterprises in Turkey from 2018 to 2022, by size (in billion Turkish lira)

Largest public companies in Turkey 2023, by market value

Largest public companies in Turkey in 2023, by market value (in billion U.S. dollars)

Largest companies in Turkey 2023, by profit

Largest companies in Turkey in 2023, by profit (in million U.S. dollars)

Further indicators

• Basic Statistic Annual gross national income (GNI) in Turkey 2010- 2022
• Premium Statistic Inward flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey 2011-2022
• Premium Statistic Outward flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey 2011-2022
• Basic Statistic Turkey: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 2012-2023
• Basic Statistic EUR/TRY FX rate, up until Apr 17, 2024
• Basic Statistic USD/TRY FX rate, up until Apr 17, 2024
• Premium Statistic Human development index of Turkey 1990-2022

Annual gross national income (GNI) in Turkey from 2010 to 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Inward flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey 2011-2022

Value of foreign direct investment (FDI) inward flows in Turkey from 2011 to 2022 (in million U.S dollars)

Outward flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey 2011-2022

Value of foreign direct investment (FDI) outward flows in Turkey from 2011 to 2022 (in billion U.S dollars)

Turkey: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 2012-2023

Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of Turkey from January 2012 to November 2023

EUR/TRY FX rate, up until Apr 17, 2024

Euro (EUR) to Turkish lira (TRY) exchange rate from June 18, 2020 to April 17, 2024

USD/TRY FX rate, up until Apr 17, 2024

U.S. dollar (USD) to Turkish lira (TRY) exchange rate from June 18, 2020 to April 17, 2024

Human development index of Turkey 1990-2022

Human development index score of Turkey from 1990 to 2022

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Watch CBS News

U.S. issues travel warning for Israel with Iran attack believed to be imminent and fear Gaza war could spread

By Debora Patta , Tucker Reals

Updated on: April 13, 2024 / 5:25 PM EDT / CBS News

Update: Iran launched drone attacks against Israel on Saturday. Read CBS News'  latest coverage here .

Tel Aviv  — Israel is bracing for a worst-case scenario that U.S. officials believe could materialize within just hours — the possibility of a direct attack on Israeli soil by Iran in retaliation for a strike almost two weeks ago that killed seven Iranian military officers. Iran has vowed to take revenge for Israel killing its commanders, who were hit by an April 1 strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria's capital.

Two U.S. officials told CBS News that a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country. Sources have told CBS News the retaliation could include attacks carried out both by Iranian forces, and proxy groups around the region that it has been funneling additional arms to for weeks.  

The officials said it would be challenging for the Israelis to defend against an attack of that magnitude, and while they held out the possibility that the Iranians could opt for a smaller-scale attack to avoid a dramatic escalation, their retaliation was believed to be imminent. 

Asked Friday how imminent he believes an attack is, President Biden responded, "I don't want to get into secure information, but my expectation is sooner than later." The president urged Iran not to move forward, saying his message to Tehran was: "Don't."

Tehran has not indicated publicly how or when it will return fire, so it's unclear how far Iran's leaders will go. If they decide to carry out a direct attack on Israel, there's fear it could blow Israel's ongoing war against Iranian ally Hamas up into a much wider regional conflict.

With the Iranian retaliation expected at any time, the U.S. State Department on Thursday warned Americans in Israel not to travel outside major cities, which are better protected from incoming rocket fire by the country's Iron Dome missile defense system. The latest guidance noted that travel by U.S. government employees in Israel could be further restricted with little notice as things develop in the tinderbox region.

"Whoever harms us, we will harm them," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Thursday as he visited troops at an Israel Defense Forces airbase. "We are prepared … both defensively and offensively."

On Saturday, all U.S. embassies in the Middle East were put on high alert and required to hold emergency action committee meetings. Diplomats in Lebanon and Israel were specifically told not to travel to certain areas within those countries.

Sima Shine, a security expert and former official with Israel's national intelligence agency Mossad, told CBS News it was a dangerous moment for the region, and the "most worried" she has been. She said anxiety over an all-out war was likely just as high "on both sides, in Israel and in Iran."

If Iran does choose to strike Israel directly, it could involve a complex missile and drone attack similar to the one Iranian forces launched against a Saudi oil facility in 2019 .

"They will try to do it on the military or some military asset," Shine predicted. "But the question will be the damage. If there would be many injured people, killed or injured … I think it has the potential for a huge escalation."

Shine stressed, however, that she still believes neither side actually wants a regional conflict.

U.S. "really trying to avoid war"

The U.S. sent a senior general to Israel this week to coordinate with the close American ally on any response it might make to an Iranian attack. Speaking Friday on "CBS Mornings," America's top military officer said, "we're really trying to avoid war."

"This is part of the dialogue that I have with my counterparts within the region, to include the Israeli chief of defense, who I talked to yesterday," said Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr., adding that the U.S. military was "doing things not only to prevent a war, but at the same time, one of my primary things is to make sure all the forces in the region are protected."

"My role, as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is to plan and prepare," Brown said. "That's one thing we do very well."

Brown's Israeli counterpart, Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, "completed a comprehensive situational assessment on the readiness of the IDF for all scenarios," Israel's military said Friday. 

"The IDF is very strongly prepared, both offensively and defensively, against any threat," Halevi was quoted as saying in the statement. "The IDF continues to monitor closely what is happening in Iran and different arenas, constantly preparing to deal with existing and potential threats in coordination with the United States Armed Forces." 

The IDF said the visiting U.S. general, Central Command chief Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, was taking part in the IDF's situational assessment.

The dilemma for Iran, said Israeli expert Shine, is to figure out how to deliver its promised response to Israel's attack in Syria, but in a way that does not lead to further escalation. Likewise, Shine said Israel could choose to show restraint when it responds to whatever Iran eventually does.

If either side gets the balance wrong, the consequences for the region, and even the world, could be dire.

Weijia Jiang, David Martin, Margaret Brennan and Olivia Gazis contributed reporting.

• Middle East
• Benjamin Neta​nyahu

Debora Patta is a CBS News foreign correspondent based in Johannesburg. Since joining CBS News in 2013, she has reported on major stories across Africa, the Middle East and Europe. Edward R. Murrow and Scripps Howard awards are among the many accolades Patta has received for her work.

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