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Tom Cruise Revives Hilarious 'Tropic Thunder' Character, Reveals the Secret Behind Dance Moves

Over 10 years after playing the character on screen in  Tropic Thunder , Tom Cruise brought Les Grossman back to life

Dave Quinn is a Senior Editor for PEOPLE. He has been working at the brand since 2016, and is the author of the No. 1 New York Times best-selling book, Not All Diamonds and Rosé: The Inside Story of the Real Housewives from the People Who Lived It.

Tom Cruise may have surprised fans at Comic-Con with the first trailer to his upcoming Top Gun sequel , but it was another movie in his illustrious catalog that Conan O’Brien asked about when Cruise appeared on the comedian’s talk show Thursday night.

In the episode, which was broadcast from the annual entertainment convention, O’Brien, 56, asked Cruise to step back into the shoes of Les Grossman — the skeevy studio executive Cruise played over a decade ago in 2008’s Tropic Thunder.

The actor, 57, was happy to oblige, showing off some of Grossman’s infamous dance moves.

Turns out, Cruise himself had pushed director Ben Stiller to incorporate those dance moves, as well as Grossman’s fat-suit, when he was first approached to play the role.

“I take classes all the time to learn things or I want to improve a skill, whether it’s singing, music — whatever subject I’m studying. So I take dance classes and I took hip-hop classes. And then what I find is, I’ll find a character to put that with,” Cruise explained on Conan, recalling how he told Stiller, ” ‘I’d love to play this character but I want to have fat hands and I’m going to dance.’ ”

“Sometimes with a character you just get an instinct about what you’re going to do,” Cruise added.

Stiller, according to Cruise, wasn’t completely on board with Cruise’s vision.

“For a couple of months he kept saying, ‘Maybe we don’t do the makeup. Maybe you just look like yourself,’ ” Cruise remembered. “And I said, ‘No, I need fat hands and I’m going to dance.’ ”

After the makeup was created, Cruise said finding Grossman was easy. “As you’re working on a character, you start becoming that character, you start discovering that character. And I just, I just started moving,” Cruise said, adding that Stiller was still confused. “There was no music. He was just looking at me like, ‘What’s happening.’ I was crushing Pepsi cans and Coke cans.”

Once Stiller added music to the scene though (specifically, Ludacris’s “Get Back”), he understood what Cruise wanted.

“He calls me the next day and cut it to that piece of music you see in the movie. And he said, ‘I get it, I get it, I get it. This is hilarious,’ ” Cruise shared.

Tropic Thunder earned Cruise a Golden Globe action nomination. The film also starred Jack Black, Robert Downey Jr., Jay Baruchel and Brandon T. Jackson.

Later on Conan , Cruise recited Grossman’s more colorful lines. “Stand back and literally f— your own face,” Cruise said, to the cheers of the crowd. “I will f— you up! I will massacre you!”

And though the next few movies Cruise has on his slate are action-based (including the aforementioned Top Gun: Maverick ), Cruise said comedy — and Les Grossman — will always have a special place in his heart.

“I love comedy,” Cruise said. “I used to write sketches when I was a little kid and would do imitations to make my mother and sisters laugh.”

“Les Grossman was a funny character,” he added. “That was a wild character. That was wild.”

Top Gun: Maverick is set for a June 26, 2020 release.

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Tom Cruise Tells ‘Conan’ The Secrets Behind His ‘Tropic Thunder’ Character And Dance Moves

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Tom Cruise isn’t known for comedy, but he does have it on his resume. Tonight on Conan , he resurrected his Tropic Thunder  character Les Grossman’s dance moves and colorful language.

Cruise is making the rounds after a surprise appearance at Comic-Con today, but decided to focus in his Conan segment on comedy, a lesser-known aspect of his talents.

The 2008 action-comedy Tropic Thunder , directed and starring Ben Stiller , featured Cruise along with Jack Black, Robert Downey Jr., Jay Baruchel and Brandon T. Jackson as a group of actors making a Vietnam War film. The prima donnas are dropped in the middle of a jungle and have to use their acting skills to survive.

One of the memorable moments was from Cruise, who received a Golden Globe nomination for Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture for his efforts in the film.

Cruise told Conan that he did imitations as a kid, but relished the chance to take on the role of Grossman, a demanding studio executive who dances during the end credits to Ludacris’s “Get Back.”

“Les Grossman is a fun character,” Cruise said, and talked about taking hip-hop classes to prepare for the role. He told Stiller that if he appeared in the film, “I’m going to dance. And I need fat hands.”

Watch the video below for more on how he stepped outside his usual acting zone.   

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Screen Rant

Why ben stiller wanted to cut tom cruise's tropic thunder dance.

Tom Cruise made a memorable appearance as a horrid movie producer in Tropic Thunder, but his famous dance scene was nearly cut by Ben Stiller.

Tom Cruise's Tropic Thunder dance is one of the most famous scenes from the movie, but director Ben Stiller had to be talked into filming it. Tropic Thunder is a 2008 all-star action-comedy, where a group of pampered movie stars making a Vietnam war movie run afoul of a drug cartel in the Golden Triangle. The movie received mostly good reviews and was a solid hit, but while it can be genuinely hilarious in its parody of Hollywood moviemaking, it attracted controversy for elements like Robert Downey Jr's character - an intense method actor - donning blackface to play a role.

Tropic Thunder  cast Tom Cruise in a surprise cameo as Les Grossman, the monstrous producer behind the movie the actors are filming. Cruise was going through something of a slow period in his career prior to Tropic Thunder , with 2006's Mission: Impossible III proving to be the lowest-grossing of the series while award baiting drama Lions For Lambs also underperformed. While Grossman is ultimately a small role, Cruise's sheer commitment to the role and endless stream of quotable dialogue made him a highlight.

Related: Edge of Tomorrow Is Tom Cruise's Best Chance At Another Mission: Impossible

Tom Cruise donned lots of prosthetics to portray Len, including a fat suit and a bald cap. Some viewers didn't even realize it was Cruise in the role until Tropic Thunder's credits, which also featured arguably the movie's comic highlight. This sees Grossman, bathing in the awards success of the movie he produced, pulling off some wicked dance moves in his office set to Ludacris’s “Get Back.” In 2019 Cruise reflected on the movie during an interview with Conan O'Brien, and revealed Ben Stiller was VERY hesitant about the dance and most of the actor's ideas for the part.

When Stiller first offered Cruise Les Grossman, it was the latter's suggestion for the character to dance and have " fat hands ." The director didn't quite gel with these ideas and asked if Cruise could just play the role looking like himself with zero dancing. Cruise followed his instincts for Tropic Thunder and decided to do a make-up test for Stiller, which included doing some dance moves. Stiller was still doubtful as he watched Cruise perform without any backing music, but afterward when took footage from this test and cut it to "Get Back," he realized he had gold.

The positive reaction to Cruise's role in Tropic Thunder almost led to the creation of a Les Grossman spinoff, but while a script was developed it yet to happen. It's strange that one of the most iconic moments in the comedy hit almost didn't happen, but it's a testament to Tom Cruise's commitment to a bit that it's still so fondly remembered.

Next: Tropic Thunder: Why RDJ's Blackface Wasn't Controversial

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You're My Brother

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Song that plays during Tugg Speedman's interview.

Ready Set Go

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Damien Cockburn and Rob Slolom are on their way to a meeting.

I Just Want To Celebrate

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The cast and crew are having a party, Cockburn tries to get his cast together to talk about the project. (Director's cut).

Name of the Game

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The cast are riding a helicopter right above the forest, Cockburn gets his cast prepped up for the shooting.

Run Through The Jungle

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Song when they are trekking through the jungle together.

I'd Love To Change the World

Ten Years After

The cast are trekking through the jungle together. (Director's cut).

Steppenwolf

Jeff attempts to snort cocaine from his bag before a bat takes it from his hand.

Sympathy For The Devil

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Tug leaves the rest of the group and treks down to the river. The other guys keep walking through the jungle.

Music From 'Star Trek' Episode 'Arena'

Alexander Courage

Tugg Speedman is watching an Episode of Sar Trek on his Ipad.

Movin' On Up

Ja'net DuBois and Jeff Barry

Lazarus quotes the theme song from The Jeffersons.

Sometimes When We Touch

Peck's (Matthew McConaeghay) ringtone.

Low (feat. T-Pain)

Grossman plays this song in his office.

Ricky Bell, Michael Lamone Bivins, Carl Bourelly and Ronald De Voe

Grossman's assistant quotes this song to Peck as they dance.

For What It's Worth

Buffalo Springfield

Tug removes his simple Jack make-up, when a child gives him a twig Oscar as a present. Meanwhile, the group looks up at the stars.

Frankenstein

Edgar Winter

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Tom Cruise Is Planning to Sing and Dance in an Original Movie Musical

He is also keen to revive his 'Tropic Thunder' character Les Grossman.

At the top of the list is an "original song and dance-style musical" which they will write as a starring vehicle for Cruise. While audiences might associate Cruise primarily with dramatic action roles, he has sang on-screen before. And no, that's not a reference to the terrible lullaby scene from the middling War of the Worlds remake. He was critically lauded for his pipes in the 2012 adaptation of the Broadway show Rock of Ages , in which he played a washed-up musician and performed impressive renditions of some hair rock anthems, including "Pour Some Sugar on Me" by Def Leppard and "Wanted Dead or Alive" by Bon Jovi.

No plot details have been announced about this new musical, although given Cruise's propensity for throwing himself into life-threatening stuntwork, it's likely he will train like a professional tap-dancer to get the moves right.

And speaking of stunts, another one of Cruise and McQuarrie's pending projects is the eighth Mission: Impossible movie, which will see Cruise "speed flying." They're also keen to create a brand new action franchise together. Most bafflingly though, they are reportedly excited about the prospect of bringing back Les Grossman, Cruise's scene-stealing character from the 2008 comedy Tropic Thunder .

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Tom Cruise Reflects On Iconic 'Risky Business' Scene 40 Years Later: 'I Still' Dance In My Underwear

Leave it to Tom Cruise to top himself again and again! Tom told Access Hollywood's Scott Evans at the "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1" premiere in Rome over the weekend that when it comes to doing his own death-defying stunts, his reasoning is simple. "Well, you know, you never have to. But I want to," the icon said. "I want to thrill that audience, I want to do everything I can." Now 60, Tom has been dominating Hollywood for more than four decades and he went on to reflect on one of his star-making roles as it celebrates a major milestone. When telling Scott about the 40th anniversary of "Risky Business," Tom remembered filming the now-iconic dance scene and how grateful he is to have had it launch him into a new level of success. "[L]ook, I grew up dancing in my underwear in my house. Who didn't?" he smiled, adding, "[T]hat was a formative experience and I feel very lucky to have that opportunity, to be able to have that kind of script and that kind of material at that age." Though Tom only continues to prove himself as a powerhouse on and off camera, he's still in touch with his "Risky Business" roots! When Scott asked if he dances in his underwear from time to time today, Tom delivered a relatable answer. "Yeah, I still," he nodded. "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1" hits theaters on July 12.

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New Details Emerge About Tom Cruise Possibly Bringing Back His Tropic Thunder Character For More Dancing

Ben Stiller , Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr . may have been the leading men of Tropic Thunder , but depending on who you ask, some might say Tom Cruise stole the show as ill-tempered, foul-mouthed studio executive Les Grossman in the action comedy. Donning a fatsuit, prosthetic hands and bald cap to bring this character he invented to life , Cruise’s performance, which included sweet dance moves , scored a Golden Globe nomination, and there’s been talk for years about Grossman coming back. Now those efforts are reportedly being revived, with Cruise looking to make this happen with Christopher McQuarrie.

Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie have been tight ever since the latter took over directorial and writing duties on the Mission: Impossible franchise, starting with 2015’s Rogue Nation (though McQuarrie did do uncredited rewrites on Ghost Protocol ). These two are currently in the midst of working on Mission: Impossible 8 , a.k.a. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part Two , but the public can also see their work together now in the form of Top Gun: Maverick , which McQuarrie co-wrote. Following the success these two have jointly had on stories focused on Ethan Hunt and Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, Deadline reports that Cruise and McQuarrie are now “fixated” on Les Grossman, although it’s unclear if they’re looking to craft an entire movie around him or include him in one of the other film projects they have cooking.

The prospect of a Les Grossman spinoff movie first emerged back in 2010 , two years after Tropic Thunder came out. In 2012, Michael Bacall, who wrote this version of the spinoff, said the story would explore the origin of Grossman’s anger issues. A decade later, one wouldn’t have been faulted for thinking that this project had been shelved, but evidently Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie are determined to bring this character back to the big screen. Should they stay the course on a straightforward spinoff, two questions come to mind. First, will Bacall’s script still be used, or will someone else be hired to deliver a different take? Second, will any other Tropic Thunder characters appear in it?

As already mentioned though, there’s the possibility that Les Grossman could simply retain his supporting character status in something else Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie are working on. Deadline’s story also mentioned that the duo have an "an original song and dance-style musical” that Cruise is intended to lead, as well as “another original action film with franchise potential.” It’s hard to envision Grossman fitting organically into either of these projects, although the image of an angry Grossman belting out songs in a musical is entertaining enough that I’d gladly pay to see the final product. We already know Grossman has the moves, as you’ll see in the clip below, so why not throw singing into the mix too?

To be clear, just because Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie are working on these projects doesn’t necessarily mean all of them will see the light of day. Maybe something Les Grossman-centric stands a better chance of moving forward because it’s tied to a popular comedy, or maybe studio executives are more interested in Tom Cruise leading another action movie or showing off his musical chops (he previously sang in Rock of Ages ) rather than reprising a character from a movie that was released almost a decade and a half ago. Oh, and let’s not forget that Cruise also still has that movie he intends to shoot in outer space with Doug Liman . No doubt that one will carve a lot of time out of his schedule.

CinemaBlend will continue sharing updates on what’s coming up in Tom Cruise’s career, but for now, you can still see Top Gun: Maverick scoring box office records in theaters alongside plenty of other 2022 movie releases , and we’ll see the actor back in action as Ethan Hunt when Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part On e arrives on July 14, 2023.

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Connoisseur of Marvel, DC, Star Wars, John Wick, MonsterVerse and Doctor Who lore, Adam is a Senior Content Producer at CinemaBlend. He started working for the site back in late 2014 writing exclusively comic book movie and TV-related articles, and along with branching out into other genres, he also made the jump to editing. Along with his writing and editing duties, as well as interviewing creative talent from time to time, he also oversees the assignment of movie-related features. He graduated from the University of Oregon with a degree in Journalism, and he’s been sourced numerous times on Wikipedia. He's aware he looks like Harry Potter and Clark Kent.

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James Corden and Tom Cruise perform on ‘The Lion King’ stage for their final ‘Late Late Show’ skit

Tom Cruise has gone from “All the Right Moves” to all the right notes.

Cruise joined James Corden April 27 on the final episode of his “The Late Late Show” by performing alongside him in a production of “The Lion King” at the Pantages Theatre in Hollywood.

The bit opened with Corden recruiting a reluctant Cruise to take part in the show, noting that the two of them had pulled off some amazing stunts together when Cruise has appeared on the program.

“In the eight years that I’ve hosted ‘The Late Late Show,’ we’ve been skydiving, you’ve flown me upside down, and today you’re going to enter my world, alright?” Corden said.

Corden then introduced Cruise to the "Lion King" cast and the pair did some exercises to prepare, including dancing to the “Mission: Impossible” theme song and using some of the character costumes to recreate the famous “You can’t handle the truth” scene from “A Few Good Men.”

Cruise also gave a spirited pre-show speech to the cast. Then, the curtain went up and Corden and Cruise walked onto the stage from the back of the theater. After they finished their part, Cruise thought they were done, but Corden rallied him to keep it up.

The duo then returned to the stage, with the curtain lifting up to show them, prompting the audience to hoot and holler and in delight.

“Hakuna Matata. What a wonderful phrase,” Corden, as Timon, said.

“Hakuna Matata, ain’t no passing craze,” Cruise, as Pumbaa, half-sang, half-spoke.

They then launched into a song and dance of “Hakuna Matata” while the audience cheered and Cruise later tried to hit a high note belting out the line, “When I was a young warthog!”

They wrapped up their song to a thunderous round of applause and a standing ovation from some people in the audience. The crowd went nuts again when they came out to take their bows after the performance ended.

Later, the two had a funny moment when Corden confronted Cruise about how he’ll “find yourself another late night host” to promote his future projects.

“When ‘Mission: Impossible 12’ comes out, you’re not going to think of me. You’re going to be off base jumping with Bowen Yang,” he said in mock anger.

“I’m not the one turning my back on everything that we have, everything that we’ve created,” Cruise fired back. “This is your last show. You did this to us.”

Cruise then went off to have drinks with some of “The Lion King” cast, but as he sat at a table, he began to sing “Can You Feel the Love Tonight,” with Corden still sitting in the theater, joining in for an unlikely duet. A montage of their moments on “The Late Late Show” played on the screen while they reunited on top of a building, continuing to sing.

As Corden apologized for their tiff, Cruise told him to "shut up" while referencing “Jerry Maguire.”

“You had me at hello,” he said.

“I love you, Tom,” Corden said.

“I know," Cruise said, as he walked away to a waiting helicopter while the “Mission: Impossible” music played, leaving Corden stranded on the roof.

Drew Weisholtz is a reporter for TODAY Digital, focusing on pop culture, nostalgia and trending stories. He has seen every episode of “Saved by the Bell” at least 50 times, longs to perfect the crane kick from “The Karate Kid” and performs stand-up comedy, while also cheering on the New York Yankees and New York Giants. A graduate of Rutgers University, he is the married father of two kids who believe he is ridiculous.

WATCH Tom Cruise and Jennifer Lopez’s hilarious MTV Movie Awards performance

Tom Cruise’s Tropic Thunder alter ego Les Grossman was back with a bang last night, as he performed a hilarious hip hop routine with Jennifer Lopez

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Tom Cruise’s Tropic Thunder alter ego Les Grossman was back with a bang last night, as he performed a hilarious hip hop routine with Jennifer Lopez

Tom Cruise reprised his hilarious Tropic Thunder alter ego, Les Grossman, at the MTV Movie Awards last night, for a scene-stealing performance with Jennifer Lopez.

SEE ALL THE MTV MOVIE AWARDS PICS HERE!

Mr Cruise launched himself into the high-energy choreographed routine alongside Jen , who was performing her single, Get Right.

Dressed in a barely-there sparkly mini dress and silver thigh-high boots, Jen wowed the crowds , while Tom, as Les Grossman opted for less than flattering high waisted tuxedo trousers and braces. Nice!

Katie Holmes was spotted laughing and cheering from the front row as the pair shook their booty and had the audience in stitches.

The dramatic routine ended when Tom gamely attempted (but didn't quite make) the splits.

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Why does kora in netflix’s ‘rebel moon’ films look so familiar.

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Kora (Sofia Boutella) in a scene from "Rebel Moon - Part Two: The Scargiver."

Zack Snyder’s space fantasy Rebel Moon is back for a second round with Rebel Moon – Part 2: The Scargiver .

The film is new on Netflix NFLX Friday. Among the familiar faces in the film is the warrior leader Kora, who leads the band of warriors in their fight against evil in Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire . If she looks familiar, it’s because the performer has appeared in several high-profile projects over the years.

Kora is played by Sofia Boutella, whose breakthrough role came in the 2014 movie hit Kingsman: The Secret Service . In director Matthew Vaughn’s spy adventure, Boutella plays Gazelle — a deadly personal assistant to billionaire bad guy Richmond Valentine (Samuel L. Jackson).

What makes Gazelle unique is the absence of her lower legs, which have been replaced by blades. Essentially, Gazelle looks like a female version of the infamous “blade runner” Olympic athlete Oscar Pistorius, who was released on parole from prison in January more than 10 years after killing his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp.

Kingsman: The Secret Service wasn’t the only time Boutella played a force to be reckoned with. After appearing in makeup to play Jaylah, an alien adversary of the crew of Starship Enterprise in director Justin Lin’s hit 2016 Star Trek Beyond , Boutella starred opposite Charlize Theron in director David Leitch’s 2017 hit spy thriller Atomic Blonde .

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In Atomic Blonde, Boutella plays Delphine Lasalle, a French undercover agent who develops an intimate relationship with Theron’s atomic blonde character Lorraine Broughton.

Also in 2017, Boutella teamed with Tom Cruise in what became the first and last film in Universal Studios’ planned Dark Universe of monster movies with The Mummy .

Playing a female version of the title character originated by Boris Karloff in 1932’s The Mummy , Boutella stars as Ahmanet, who is reawakened after centuries when Nick Morton (Cruise) and his crew discover the Egyptian princess’ tomb and inadvertently bring her back to life.

The Mummy’s underwhelming box office take, however, led to the cancellation of Universal’s shared universe of characters harvested from their famed Universal Monsters vault.

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 06: Actress Sofia Boutella attends "The Mummy" New York fan event at AMC Loews ... [+] Lincoln Square on June 6, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)

Boutella Got Her Start As A Dancer In Music Videos

Born April 3, 1982, in the Bab El Oued district in Algiers, Algeria, Sofia Boutella’s screen career kicked off in earnest in films or television shows, but as a dancer in several music videos. Among the artists Boutella worked with was Madonna, having appeared in the pop star’s music video for 2005’s Hung Up , 2006’s Sorry and 2009’s Celebration .

In addition, Boutella was billed as the lead dancer in a 2011 music video set to the late Michael Jackson’s song Hollywood Tonight.

Boutella even wears a Jackson-inspired costume, fedora and right-hand glove in the last part of the Hollywood Tonight video, in addition to recreating some familiar dance moves and poses as a tribute to the King of Pop. The next year, Boutella scored a leading role in the dance drama Street Dance 2 .

After The Mummy in 2017, Boutella nabbed a key supporting role as the assassin Nice in the dystopian action thriller Hotel Artemis opposite Jodie Foster, Dave Bautista and Sterling K. Brown.

Before she was cast by Zack Snyder in the lead role of Kora in Netflix’s first Rebel Moon movie in 2023, Boutella appeared in such projects as the Foo Fighters’ music video Shame Shame and the 2022 Netflix streaming anthology series Guillermo del Toro’s Cabinet of Curiosities .

Most recently, Boutella reunited with her Kingsman: The Secret Service director Matthew Vaughn for a supporting role in the spy thriller Argylle opposite Bryce Dallas Howard and Sam Rockwell.

Rebel Moon – Part Two: The Scargiver is now streaming on Netflix.

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Thomas Friedman on Iran, Israel and Preventing a ‘Forever War’

“It’s the worst story I’ve ever covered.”

Hosted by Ross Douthat ,  Carlos Lozada and Lydia Polgreen

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The columnist Thomas L. Friedman joined the hosts of “Matter of Opinion” this week to unpack Israel’s and Iran’s latest attacks, what they mean for Gaza and the implications for the region writ large.

Below is a lightly edited transcript of this episode. To listen to this episode, click the play button below.

Lydia Polgreen: From New York Times Opinion, I’m Lydia Polgreen.

Ross Douthat: I’m Ross Douthat.

Carlos Lozada: I’m Carlos Lozada.

Lydia: And this is “Matter of Opinion.”

Over the past few weeks, Israel and Iran have engaged in a military standoff. Israel struck the Iranian Embassy in Syria, killing several top Iranian military officials. Then last weekend Iran sent hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel. And finally, early on Friday, Israel retaliated , striking a military base in Iran.

Michelle Cottle is out this week, so to try to unpack what all this means, we asked our colleague Thomas L. Friedman to join us.

This conversation was recorded before the latest attack, so keep that in mind. But we think it provides some very helpful context to what led us to this moment and what could happen next.

Welcome back to “Matter of Opinion,” Tom.

Thomas L. Friedman: Thank you, Lydia. It’s great to be back.

Lydia: So let’s get right into it. How did Iran’s attack on Israel come to be?

Tom: Well, roughly a week before Iran launched its missile attack, Israel killed several very, very senior [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards commanders who were in an adjunct building to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, meeting with operatives at the same time. And this gentleman was reportedly responsible for really running all the sort of Iranian operations in Lebanon, in Syria.

And so, from the Israeli point of view, he was a very high-value target. I was surprised they did this. It’s not something I thought was very wise. My grandmother used to say, just one war at a time, please. And this really was a provocation, even for the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran, which has been ongoing now for years.

This was definitely a step-up. And the Iranians honored the Israelis’ step-up by taking a massive step-up of their own on Saturday by launching some 300 drones, missiles and cruise missiles at Israel from Iran, marking the first time that any Middle East state has attacked Israel since Saddam Hussein did it with Scuds 33 years ago.

And in the context of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, again, tit-for-tat, shadow war, neither has ever done such a thing. I didn’t buy and don’t buy the notion that they were counting on Israel’s air defense system to shoot down basically all 300 with help from allies. That was actually quite a remarkable military feat.

Had one of them gotten through and hit an Israeli school or a government building, this audio program would be about full-scale war in the Middle East right now.

Ross: So your view is that that possibility was built into the Iranian attack? Because both during the attack, honestly, and then immediately afterward, there was this running debate about the extent to which Iran had deliberately telegraphed this move, telegraphed it to Israel, telegraphed it to the other Arab states that cooperated in shooting down the missiles, which to some people seemed to imply that Iran wanted the attack to fail.

But you don’t think that was the case, and you think, therefore, Iran was prepared for really dramatic escalation in response from Israel?

Tom: Yeah, Ross. You know, I say two things. One is, just given the physics of it, no one could count on firing 300 missiles and drones at another country, that basically none would get through. That almost all 300 would be intercepted by a, in effect, multinational force. And No. 2, when it comes to Iran, I always prefer to put an s on the end: Irans.

So maybe the supreme leader had one thing in mind and the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards had another thing in mind. It’s a notoriously factionalized system, particularly between the Revolutionary Guards, the army and the government. And not everyone is always aligned.

Carlos: Tom, so how much or how little can we discern about Iran’s offensive capabilities and Israel’s defensive capabilities from what we just saw?

Tom: I was trying to imagine when the head of the Iranian Air Force reported back to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, did he breathe a sigh of relief or did he say, “Zero out of 300?”

Lydia: Hmm.

Tom: “ If that’s how bad our offense is, what does that mean for our defense?” Remember, Iran’s air force does not have F-35s. It does not have F-15s. So they have none of the advanced technologies that Israel and its allies have.

And so I think the Iranians are much more worried right now than not. It has been a risk-averse leadership. This is not people who have gone out of their way to bet the farm. And that’s why I was really surprised that in some ways they did, because if just one out of 300 gets through and causes a mass casualty event in Israel, I think Israel — they would have taken the plans out for Iran’s nuclear program. And we’d be in Day 5 of that war right now. So I don’t think the world fully appreciates how close we came. That’s just my gut feeling.

Lydia: What’s going on in Israel? What are the calculations that are happening right now in terms of how to respond? There was in the immediate moment this idea that they must hit back and hit back hard. Now some time has passed. Life seems to be returning roughly to normal in Israel. Where do things stand?

Tom: I think we’re all trying to divine that, Lydia. So several factors are sort of converging here. One is Israel is having the best week of this war since Oct. 7, in terms of global public opinion. People now see at the interstate level what they’re up against, and it’s not inconsiderable. And that’s why you’ve had visits by the German foreign minister, the British, people really expressing solidarity. But within the Israeli government, one of the things that’s troubled me since the war began is that there’s basically no opposition in Israel. Since the beginning of the war, there’s been no opposition.

It’s not like Gantz and Eisenkot who have joined the government from the leading opposition party, I mean they’re — I don’t know — 10 degrees different from Netanyahu, but it’s not like there’s a liberal party arguing something completely different at all. It’s much more nuanced. In other words, Israeli politics still revolves around Bibi Netanyahu, and he’s in everybody’s head.

And as a result of that, there is no loud, significant opposition articulating an alternative strategy, like maybe not retaliating, for either Gaza or now Iran. There’s degrees of caution and separation. And I believe one reason for that is that the army in Israel has often played that role more than the politicians.

What happened is that because the Gaza war is a complete and catastrophic military failure, all the military chiefs know their careers are over. And because of that, we are six months into a war with no defined endgame. And the military normally would be playing that role, but I think because everyone here is traumatized and a little bit compromised in their own way, they’re not playing that role.

Ross: So I think we want to talk about endgame scenarios, but just to push on the Netanyahu thread for a minute: Netanyahu is politically unpopular in Israel right now, in the sense that opinion polls that we can see suggest that he would not be returned as prime minister if elections were held suddenly.

And we’ve had various people — yourself included, our colleague Bret Stephens — arguing that for the sake of Israel’s war effort, Netanyahu should go. If Netanyahu went, in whatever way, shape or form, what would actually follow? Beyond the change in leadership style, who would be in charge, and would there be any shift in strategy or tactics?

Tom: Ross, there certainly would be a change in tone. When Netanyahu came in with the farthest far-right government Israel’s ever had — including real Jewish Proud Boys, I mean, Jewish supremacists — their approach was, you know, “We’re living in a one-state reality. Let’s behave without self-restraint. In fact, let’s try to take the Supreme Court down so we can truly behave without self-restraint.”

So I think the first answer to your question, Ross, would be it’s a government that would not be looking in any way to provoke things. That’s where I would start. But absent what is the resolution on the ground in Gaza, how much of Hamas survives, now this Iran factor — it’s very hard to predict actually how different they would be.

And all I can say about Netanyahu is that he’s compromised. He knows he has to stay in power in order to be able to trade his office for a plea bargain if he is convicted. Therefore, there isn’t a decision he makes in this war that isn’t factored in with his own political needs, which a lot of people would argue would be, keep the war going.

And in fact, look, he didn’t invite this Iran attack, I don’t believe, but it sure works for him politically. I bet if they took a poll today, you’d see his numbers have gone way up.

Carlos: Tom, I want to widen that question just a tiny bit. In your latest column , you wrote that there’s no hope for a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the conflict between Israel and Iran without leadership change, in Israel with Netanyahu but also in Tehran and also in Ramallah with the Palestinian Authority.

And it’s very persuasive. You kind of walk through each case. But what I wanted to ask you is how much of this problem is about the particular leadership that’s in place, versus how much is about the competing interests and forces at play that have shown themselves to be somewhat resistant at times to leadership changes.

Tom: So Carlos, I’ll start at 30,000 feet ——

Carlos: That’s where you live, Tom. That’s great. [Laughter]

Tom: Exactly. That’s where I have to live, because if you’re down on the ground, man, there aren’t enough drugs to keep you going. [Laughter.] So anyone who knows my politics knows that it’s a tension between Walter Mondale and Thomas Hobbes. A lot of people keep saying, “Two-state solution’s a fantasy.”

And I say, “Oh, thank you for telling me! I had no idea that this was hard. Thank you for telling me.” I get it. There’s about a 95 percent chance that this won’t work. But I’ve decided to dedicate my life 100 percent to the 5 percent chance that it will, because the alternative is a forever war. And if you care about Israel, care about Palestinians, that’s the end of both communities. Because they’ll just destroy each other, basically.

And so the hope I base that on, Carlos, is this: Bibi Netanyahu has been in power for 16 years. He has spent 16 years doing everything he could to denigrate the Palestinian Authority. In those 16 years, with kind of a free hand, Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the P.A., has done everything to shift money to relatives and really take advantage of the fact that they couldn’t have an election.

I would just like to do a lab test: What if you had an Israeli leader and a Palestinian leader who actually wanted to try to make this work? Would it work automatically? I have no idea. And we have the whole question of settlements and physical problems on the ground. But I would at least like to run that test of having someone in power in Ramallah and someone in power in Jerusalem who actually wanted to make it work and see how far we can get. And because it’s going to happen incrementally.

Ross: I think one of the questions here, right, is people say, “No one wants a wider war.”

Ross: But there are people who want a wider war, right?

Tom: Definitely.

Ross: Who are they right now, and what are they thinking?

Tom: So, Ross, one is Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who is hiding somewhere in Gaza.

Ross: Right, he needs a wider war.

Tom: He needs a wider war, because he’s out to destroy Israel. The thing people need to remember about Sinwar is, Sinwar actually doesn’t know the Arabs very well, which is why I think he was surprised by some of them not joining in. But he knows Israelis really well. In fact, he learned his Israeli studies in prison. He learned all his Hebrew in prison. And he spent years observing Israel and all its weaknesses, and he put them all into play in this war. And he wants Israel wiped out. So he’s certainly one of them.

I always go back when I think about Iran, Ross, to remember what Ayatollah Khomeini said when he came to Tehran from Paris in 1979 and took over, basically, Iran from the shah. He said: We didn’t make this revolution to lower the price of watermelons. This is a truly ideological movement with an agenda that it is ready to prioritize over advancing the well-being of Iranians.

And we’ve seen that now since 1979. And so you have to take these people very seriously. They want to destroy Israel out of conviction and ambition. Whether they think they can actually do it is a whole other question, but they’re not playing around.

Lydia: So the Iranians — what are the Palestinians to them? Are they just an instrument trying to humiliate Israel? Because there’s not a natural alliance, as you said, so how is Iran positioned vis-à-vis the Palestinians here?

Tom: So Iran is not popular among the West Bank. Remember a big part of the Palestinian community are Christians — not a majority, but they have a significant Christian minority. In the P.A., Iran is not popular. Iran is extremely adept at cultivating underground networks. And so Palestinians are to them the same as Houthis are to them, the same as Hezbollah is to them, the same as Shia militias in Iraq are to them. They’re instruments, and they are how Iran projects power.

And by basically enabling these militias with resources and money to either take over these countries or eat away at the systems there, so you can’t get a majority against them. Lebanon hasn’t been able to elect a president now for a couple of years because Iran can’t necessarily, within the Lebanese system, get the man it wants, but it can make sure that no one else can get the person they want that would be hostile to Iran.

And Hamas, — one has to remember, Hamas launched this war because there was a big political struggle going on inside Hamas between more moderate forces led by Haniyeh and Sinwar and because Hamas was in a giant rivalry with Fatah in the West Bank and Fatah seemed to be lining up with Israel and Saudi Arabia to do a giant normalization deal. So take a step back from all the sort of Hamas ideology charter — this was also very much local politics at work.

Ross: So I just want to push you to make a specific prediction — sorry — [Laughter] about what the Israelis are going to do. Because in the narrative, your narrative of the Iranian desire for a wider war, it seems like what constrains Iranian leadership is fear. That they would happily go to war with Israel ——

Ross: —— tomorrow if they thought they could win it. So if you are in the Israeli cabinet right now, are you thinking, “We must strike back to restore deterrence and maintain fear”? Or are you thinking, “Iran failed sufficiently that they will be deterred from trying this again”? What are you thinking, and what are they going to do?

Tom: What are they going to do? I don’t know, Ross. I’ll just say what I’ve been thinking from Day 1 of the war: that Israel needs to ask itself what its worst enemies want it to do and do the opposite. And it’s rooted in a larger framework that I have, which is that I can write the history of this conflict for you long. I wrote a whole book, “[From] Beirut to Jerusalem,” about it. Or I can write history really short, and it fits on a business card: war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout, going back to 1929, if not earlier. And the difference between the two sides is what each did in the timeout. Israel built one of the strongest economies in the world. Hamas dug tunnels and nursed a grievance. And my view is that the Israeli No. 1 objective should always be to get to the timeout whenever they can, as much as they can.

Now maybe in this situation, it’s unavoidable. They just can’t. That’s what they would argue. I’m not sure that’s the case. But Israel wins in the timeouts, and it loses in times of war, especially where we are now historically, politically and technologically in a social wired network world where when you lose on TikTok now, you don’t just lose Muslim Americans in Michigan. You lose a whole generation. And I think Israel is in real danger of losing a whole generation right now.

Carlos: I wonder if we could maybe spend some of our remaining time talking about what the next timeout might look like if we’re able to get there. Back in January, which feels so long ago, you wrote a column saying that Oct. 7 had propelled a fundamental rethinking of the Middle East inside the Biden administration. You outlined what you thought was an emerging Biden doctrine for the region. Given how the conflict has evolved since then, how is the administration thinking about the region, broadly speaking, now? Is there a coherent doctrine that you see still at work or in development here?

Tom: Carlos, I’d just say before I answer, I’ve been doing this my entire adult life. I’ve been following the Middle East since I was 15. I’m now 70. This is the absolutely worst moment I ever remember and the most worrisome for the whole region spinning out of control.

I would say the administration has a broad doctrine, which is Israel should find a way to finish the operation of dismantling Hamas in a way that spares as many innocent Gazan civilians as possible. It should then work with the P.A., with the support of countries like the U.A.E. or Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, when they are of sufficient capacity and strength. The P.A. plus allied countries — Jordan, Egypt, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia — should then be the ones to govern Gaza, maybe even with some American logistical help.

And then Israel should provide some political horizon for the Palestinians, so Israel can then normalize with Saudi Arabia. And we then find ourselves with a broad inclusion network in the region, stretching from Egypt through Gaza, the Arabian Gulf countries, and we’re in a whole new Middle East.

That’s the hope. It’s still not impossible, I would say, but it takes me back, Carlos, to, again, what I said early on after the war, which is what was going on in the world on Oct. 6? On Oct. 6, Ukraine was trying to join the West, and Israel was trying to join the Arab East. Ukraine was trying to get into the European Union, and Israel was trying to normalize with Saudi Arabia.

This was a pivotal 1989 moment. And Russia understood the first and stopped it, and Hamas and Iran understood the second and stopped it. Because if these two events had happened — if the first had happened, it would be the biggest change in Europe since East Germany joined West Germany. We would be nine-tenths to a Europe whole and free. In the Middle East, it would be the biggest expansion of the Inclusion Network since Camp David, and it would have opened up the whole Muslim world to Israel. So we were at a pivotal — we still are at a pivotal moment that will actually define the post-post-Cold War world in both Europe and the Middle East if we take these two theaters together.

It may not feel like it, but this is 1989. This is a pivotal moment that is going to define the post-post-Cold War world. And that’s why I feel strongly about both aid for Ukraine and making sure that the Palestinian Authority, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan come out of this the right way.

Lydia: But one big stumbling block to that, and you didn’t mention when you talked about who wanted a widening war, but it’s clear that Netanyahu wants this war to continue ——

Lydia: —— and needs this war to continue.

Lydia: Does the potential widening of the war weaken or strengthen him? And how do we contend with that as a factor overall? I mean, Biden has been trying very hard to exercise influence, but it’s hard to exercise influence on someone who feels cornered and running for their life.

Tom: Yeah. You know, Lydia it’s been a problem from Day 1, and it’s why I’ve focused on him so much. He’s not on the level as a leader right now in terms of his decision making. That said, he’s also not alone. He has to balance his far-right coalition partners with Benny Gantz, with the army and with the public.

So it’s not like he can just keep people at war forever. He’s under huge pressure from hostage families. But he can drag things out at the margins, more and less. He can extend this thing if he wants, but I don’t think it’s indefinite.

Joe Biden — it seems like an eternity ago, but a couple of weeks ago after the tragic killing of José Andrés’s team, Biden basically called [Netanyahu] up and said: Here’s what you’re going to do, and if you don’t do it, you’re basically on your own.

And that got his attention because Israeli prime ministers depend on an American president to deal with their internal politics. They need to be able to go back to the cabinet and say, “I would never do that. But this S.O.B. Biden, he broke my arm! He broke — he broke my arm! I would never do this, but the Americans made me do it.”

And so we need to always be aware of that role that we play. Some would say Biden didn’t play it hard enough early enough. I think it’s a tricky question because you also don’t want to give Hamas a pass and think that, OK, now the Americans have got Bibi’s hands tied behind his back because then Hamas will take advantage of it. So navigating this war is just hell on wheels.

Ross: But so just to clarify, from the point of view of the Israelis who do not have Netanyahu’s specific political incentives but share his perspective, which, as you’re arguing, is most of the key players ——

Ross: —— what’s the difference between the endgame you just sketched or the timeout you just sketched, which presumably is the one the Biden administration is seeking ——

Ross: —— and what they think? Like, if Netanyahu’s cabinet gets what they want in the war in the next six months, what does their view of the timeout look like?

Tom: Ross, I’m going to tell you the craziest thing, one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen covering international relations. I don’t know the answer, because no one in Israel has said — even the opposition has not said — what is the endgame in Gaza. And we are six months into this war, and, and I’m not being cute or anything. I, I have no idea.

It just doesn’t make sense to me, and worse, I think it’s just incredibly reckless. One can only divine by their actions, Ross, that their idea is to finish off Hamas in Rafah if they can, and I think that’s a dubious proposition. I wrote early on , the four most dangerous words in the Middle East are “once and for all.” Nothing ever ends once and for all there.

And then the plan, Ross, seems to be to pull largely out of Gaza, except for a perimeter and the road bisecting it and use those two sort of positions to go in and out at will.

But I was there a few weeks ago with General Carrillo, our Centcom commander. We were actually at the Erez crossing and being briefed by an Israeli colonel. And he said, “We’re basically all out of northern Gaza.” I said, “What? What?” He said, “We’ve left northern Gaza.” I said, “Well, who’s governing northern Gaza?” Now, a lot of the population has been depopulated, but he didn’t have an answer.

And I immediately — and I wrote a column about this — had a flashback to being in Iraq three weeks after the war in Umm Qasr and saying, “Where are the Americans? Where are the British?” And no one was there because they had left a completely ungoverned space.

So either you’re going to have a Somalia, where Israel goes in and out, or Hamas coming back. Or you’re going to get a new Israeli government that invites the P.A. in. But right now, no one is talking that way.

And so we’re six months into this war, and I can’t answer your most basic question — not just because Netanyahu hasn’t answered it, because Gantz and Eisenkot, the opposition, haven’t answered it, and the opposition outside the government haven’t offered a kind of third way. And that gets to the deformities of the Israeli political system right now — that there is no opposition.

Lydia: Tom, thank you so much for coming to spend some time with us today.

Carlos: Thank you so much, Tom.

Tom: I feel like it’s wonderful to be with my great colleagues. I wish I had better answers. I don’t. It’s the worst story I’ve ever covered.

Lydia: That’s saying something.

Tom: Great to be with you guys. Anytime.

Ross: Thanks Tom.

Mentioned in this episode:

“ How to Be Pro-Palestinian, Pro-Israeli and Pro-Iranian ” by Thomas L. Friedman

“ Iran Just Made a Big Mistake. Israel Shouldn’t Follow. ” by Thomas L. Friedman

“ A Biden Doctrine for the Middle East Is Forming. And It’s Big. ” by Thomas L. Friedman

“ Netanyahu Must Go ” by Bret Stephens

Thoughts? Email us at [email protected] .

Follow our hosts on X: Michelle Cottle ( @mcottle ), Ross Douthat ( @DouthatNYT ) and Carlos Lozada ( @CarlosNYT ).

“Matter of Opinion” is produced by Phoebe Lett, Sophia Alvarez Boyd and Derek Arthur. It is edited by Jordana Hochman. Mixing by Sonia Herrero and Pat McCusker. Original music by Isaac Jones, Efim Shapiro, Carole Sabouraud, Sonia Herrero and Pat McCusker. Our fact-checking team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marge Locker and Michelle Harris. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta and Kristina Samulewski. Our executive producer is Annie-Rose Strasser.

Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook , Instagram , TikTok , WhatsApp , X and Threads .

Ross Douthat has been an Opinion columnist for The Times since 2009. He is the author, most recently, of “The Deep Places: A Memoir of Illness and Discovery.” @ DouthatNYT • Facebook

Carlos Lozada is an Opinion columnist and a co-host of the weekly “Matter of Opinion” podcast for The Times, based in Washington, D.C. He is the author, most recently, of “ The Washington Book : How to Read Politics and Politicians.”  @ CarlosNYT

Lydia Polgreen is an Opinion columnist and a co-host of the “ Matter of Opinion ” podcast for The Times.